im not missile expert, but after talking with some friends and read some articles, well that is my opinion...
well,actually ABM sistems also were tested by the russians ,in fact they have missiles specializated in ABM defence, but only for the Moscow and St.
Petesburg defence, also the US studied versions of the Nike missile as ABMs
the main reason of the relative peace in USA, Europe and Russia -or SU- was the fear of the nuke bombing
i dont know in which direction the modern US program is working, is about interceptors??, lasers??, btw they are testing S300???
now with the progress of the ABM sistems the leaders could be fearless, China can learn from the soviet program and design its own ABM sistem -or even
other country can do-, the point is that in such scenarie there will be always a idiot that will think "my country is the best and the most powerful
and we are the bravest men, so if we have such technologic wonder
called ABM sistem, well i think that we could win the war"
, at the
end of the day they discover that the wonder wasnt soo wonderful, but is too late
but that is a scenarie for the next 20-30 years, nobody will left the nukes, but is probable one increase in the interest of the ABM systems
btw the low heigh actually help the missile against the ABM system, remember that one thing is a warning detection sensor and other veeeery different
is a tracking searching fire controll radar-sensor, if you flight at low level, you reduce the time for reaction for the fire controll system,
obviusly by reducing the fire-shoot horizont
is probable that for the time the US coud have their ABM white elephant, china could have their topols
but always there are other alternatives like FOBS-but is prohibited by SALTs- , such system outclass the ABM net, if the US want to breake the missile
pact, why not China or other countries???, so its not about the weapons, is a political problem, that could result in the re-starting of the
development of new missiles, that paradoxically make obsolete the Star Wars
, only because the president friends want more money....
btw, the ABM is based in nuke heads???
[edit on 13-8-2005 by grunt2]