We Are Not at the End of the Oil Age: New Developments Soon Will Increase the World's Supply.

Ran across this very interesting article early this a.m.
Certainly worthy of a read:

But it is oil that gets most of the attention. Prices around $60 a barrel, driven by high demand growth, are fueling the fear of imminent shortage - that the world is going to begin running out of oil in five or 10 years.

This shortage, it is argued, will be amplified by the substantial and growing demand from two giants: China and India.

Yet this fear is not borne out by the fundamentals of supply. Our new, field-by-field analysis of production capacity, led by my colleagues Peter Jackson and Robert Esser, is quite at odds with the current view and leads to a strikingly different conclusion:

There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day - from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day - a 20 percent increase.

Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.

Where will this growth come from? It is pretty evenly divided between non-OPEC and OPEC.

The largest non-OPEC growth is projected for Canada, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Angola and Russia. In the OPEC countries, significant growth is expected to occur in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya, among others.

We Are Not at the End of the Oil Age: ; New Developments Soon Will Increase the World's Supply


Thoughts and comments?





seekerof

[edit on 6-8-2005 by Seekerof]

Originally posted by Seekerof



Thoughts and comments?





seekerof

I can hear the Tulipwalkers crying now, we need to save the 3 legged sabre tooth panty crickets and you want to drill for Black Gold! Of course when they leave the rallies they get in moms Excursion.


Anyhow, interesting article indeed, I also think that there is plenty of deep oil and the tech will come soon enough

Another interesting article just to add some contrast of opinion.
www.financialexpress.com...

"This is the big gorilla. The demand by China and India together, if they continue to grow, it is quite substantial and it is frightening," said Mazen I. Snobar, President and CEO of Aramco Services Co., which delivers Saudi oil to the United States.

All oil producing nations will have to chip in to meet the needs if demand in those two countries continues to rise, said Snobar, adding, "Let's hope they don't sustain this growth."

Snobar, who is based in Houston, gave his assessment of the Asia oil demands during an energy forum attended by 200 leaders from the petroleum industry, government and academia at Southern Methodist University.

Of the United States, he said the country "cannot realistically expect to be energy independent. The forces that drive our industry are directly linked to the health of the economy here and worldwide, and we must have the stability to keep things in balance," he said.

[edit on 6-8-2005 by sardion2000]

Can we please put edsinger on global ignore. This is not the WOT forum, do we really need this provocation everywhere?

[edit on 6-8-2005 by cargo]

Originally posted by cargoCan we please put edsinger on global ignore. This is not the WOT forum, do we really need this provocation everywhere?

What the hell does my post have to do with the War on Terror?

Nothing.......just dont like the label do we?




1. tulipwalker
A single grouping of leftist, liberal, communist, pinko, enviro-nazi tree hugging, anti-American peace nicks.

Those tulipwalkers are at it again, protesting the war, even at the cost of more hatred, putting American lives at greater risk.

Source: edsinger, Above Top Secret, May 28, 2005






Lets see the thread was on peak oil, envro-nazi tree huggers, would be a fit for the agenda would it not? Or is it that label thingy again?

Worried about them 3 legged sabre tooth panty crickets are we?





[edit on 6-8-2005 by edsinger]

Try to stay on topic here, not what each other is posting.

Thank you.

You are just a s*** stirrer ed, nothing more. I'm not even liberal. I hadn't come to this forum until recently and was saddened to find that you and your hate are like a spreading plague.

I apologise Gazz.

/end

[edit on 6-8-2005 by cargo]

FINAL WARNING: STAY ON TOPIC!

Ed and Cargo, you have both recieved warnings.

We are here to discuss the topic, not each other.

Understand?

Thank you!

The article seems like it's probably dead on in most respects. The only thing that bothers me though is that most of the "oil forecasters" are only factoring in big growth in India and China. If other parts of Asia or other regions start to experience major economic growth than all those forecasting models will need to change. I just don't think the people doing this research are factoring in growth outside of China and India, at least not leaving enough wiggle room anyway.

All in all though, I do feel like peak oil is still a ways off yet. The price is high enough per barrel to make new exploration and production very profitable even for those previously cost-prohibitive methods. Also new technologies are starting to make more headway because of the high cost of oil.