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NEWS: Bird Flu Pandemic Warning Issued Today By Scientists

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posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 05:34 AM
A grim warning has been issued to countries worldwide today warning of the catastrophic consequences of a bird flu pandemic which seems not to be a matter if but a matter of when. Scientists have used computer modelling to show the potential outcome of the virus mutating into a form more readily contagious by human to human transmission. Different computer models were used by two groups of scientist which both came to the same end conclusions and without effective control the virus could spread worldwide in a matter of three months.
The College's Professor Neil Ferguson says control is only possible when the epidemic is in its early stages.

NEIL FERGUSON: Once the epidemic has become larger than say a few thousand cases or really a few hundred cases, we have no chance of stopping it. In essence, it will be certain to spread round the world, and we… our best estimate is really about half the world's population would be infected with this new strain within about 12 months. There'd be very little we could do about it. All we might be able to do is minimise the number of deaths which occur by treating people, at least wealthy countries might be able to treat people with anti-viral drug stockpiles.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

Dr Alan Hampson from the World Health Organization says the computer modelling gives some hope that the outbreak will be able to be controlled. It will be the more wealthier of countries that have the best survival rate using stockpiled antiretrovirals and other quarantine and drug proceedures.

Dr Hampson also states that the worlds level of prepardness for a pandemic is low and at present the world stockpile of vaccines is limited.

Related News Links:

Related Discussion Threads:
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posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 05:48 AM
Do we even know if anti-viral drugs will work on this flu?

The 'best case scenario' seems to depend on controlling the spread with anti-viral drugs but didn't the Chinese admit to using human anti-virals on sick poultry, which means the flu might now be immune to the drugs we have?

I've never seen so many scientists, so concerned about one strain of flu before.

This could be the big one...

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 05:54 AM
Mayet, thanks for keeping us informed!

my - according to Dr. Niman there are different strains of H5N1 - some are showing resistance to certain medications (he discusses the specifics in the interview) and some are not. It really depends on what it mutates to by the time it gets to a given population. I think the thing that is concerning scientists the most about this deal is how quickly it does change.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 06:16 AM
The Chinese use of antiretroviral drugs supposed to be used on humans only but used on their poultry has probably rendered some drugs useless against some strains but it won't really be known how useful or how much damage the Chinese have done until an actual outbreak where the drugs are needed.

The use of the drugs in the poultry has more than likely caused the strains of virus to be immune to the drugs used on the animals.

Because Avian Flu -H5N1 is a RNA virus, it can mutate easily and resist strains of drugs used to fight it quite easily.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 09:38 AM

The Chinese have a history of misuse of human antivirals being used for livestock. It seems now they have a big problem in their southern province of Sichuan....

Upto Aug. 3 (BJ time), The official data about the so-called "Streptococcosis Suis" is:

38 dead, 18 in critical situation and 206 infected.

People do not trust these numbers, a few message from BBS in China as follow:

Jingdezhen, Jiangsu, 3 similar cases, one dead, no report

Chengdu - 21 infected, 3 dead. This is informed by community committee

37 dead? No way, we (in our county) have 3 deaths in two days

3 dead in Suining, Sichuan

This common so-called bactieral infection has only been seen 200 times in humans since 1968!

3 August 2005

To date, the Ministry of Health in China has reported 206 cases of human disease associated with an outbreak of Streptococcus suis in pigs. Of these human cases, 38 have been fatal. As reported by China, 18 patients are critically ill.

Virtually all cases have occurred in Sichuan Province, where infections with Streptococcus suis have been detected in pigs in a concurrent outbreak. The province has one of the largest pig populations in China.

Investigation and containment of the outbreak have been given high priority by Chinese authorities. The country’s ministries of health and agriculture are working in close collaboration, and WHO and FAO are being promptly informed of new developments.

Investigations conducted by Chinese epidemiologists indicate that the first human cases occurred at the end of June in Ziyang City, Sichuan Province. From 24 June through 21 July, the authorities reported 20 cases of illness, of unknown cause, admitted to three hospitals in that city. WHO was officially informed of the outbreak on 22 July, at which time 20 cases and 9 deaths had been reported.

Cases have since been reported in 11 prefectures in Sichuan Province. Most cases reported have occurred in adult male farmers. Information reported to WHO suggests that close contact with diseased or dead pigs is the principal source of human infection.

Symptoms reported by local clinicians include high fever, malaise, nausea, and vomiting, followed by meningitis, subcutaneous haemorrhage, toxic shock, and coma in severe cases. The incubation period is short and disease progression is rapid.

Local experts are conducing active searches for further cases. To date, Chinese authorities say they have found no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

The outbreak in humans has some unusual features and is being closely followed by WHO. Diagnostic testing to further characterize the causative agent is recommended as an essential part of ongoing efforts to understand this outbreak, ensure its rapid containment, and prevent further deaths.

And yet this disease is controlled by commom antibiotics! Think this is normal?

Humans Dying of Pig Disease a Concern
The Associated Press
Wednesday, August 3, 2005; 2:35 PM

-- Experts on a strep germ that's sickening people and pigs in China are baffled by reports of 37 farmers suddenly falling ill, bleeding under the skin and dying _ all previously unheard of with the disease.

While not uncommon in pigs, Streptococcus suis is seldom seen in people and never dozens of cases all at once _ raising bigger questions about whether the germ has mixed with some other bacteria or virus.

"Something is different," Marcelo Gottschalk, one of the world's leading experts on the disease, told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

"We are worried and we wonder what's happening. We would like to have the strain to identify."

See full article:

We need someone to steal some samples from these areas since China will not allow others into the region. That goes for reporters too. Seems like the Sar's incident again...denial, deinal and denial.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 10:51 AM
While China may be covering up H5N1 bird flu cases - everyone else is equally guilty.

Today's epidemics were predicted in the 1970's - and H5N1 bird flu is not the only catatastrophe we are facing. Numerous epidemics are already present, and are due to mutated and newly created forms of viruses, bacteria, spirochetes, mycoplasma and more - all hinge on "hybrids" originally mediated by a prion called "a-smooth muscle actin," and which now use a variety of actin-related proteins, proteases, and enzymes.


Dangerous liaisons between a microbe and the prion protein. J Exp Med. 2003 Jul 7;198(1):1-4. Aguzzi A, Hardt WD. PMID: 12847133

"Animal prion infections, such as scrapie (sheep) and "mad cow disease" (cattle), have shown a pattern of horizontal transmission in farm conditions and several ectoparasites have been shown to harbor prion rods in laboratory experiments. Fly larvae and mites were exposed to brain-infected material and were readily able to transmit scrapie to hamsters. New lines of evidence have confirmed that adult flies are also able to express prion proteins. Several cell types found on the human skin, including keratinocytes, fibroblasts and lymphocytes, are susceptible to the abnormal infective isoform of the prion protein, which transforms the skin to produce a potential target for prion infection."
Int J Dermatol. 2003 Jun;42(6):425-9. Could ectoparasites act as vectors for prion diseases? Lupi O. Center for Vaccine Development, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA. PMID: 12786866

"Scientists have evidence that bacteria dangerous to humans have begun evolving in insects, for reasons that are not clear.
The October edition of Nature Reviews: Microbiology reports that invertebrates such as worms and insects may have begun enabling a rapid evolution for bacteria normally not harmful to humans. Not only are insects capable of delivering disease through bites and stings, they now may be the breeding ground for strains of infectious bacteria never before seen in humans."
Dangerous Bacteria Evolving in Insects


"Something happened 18 to 24 months ago, where the use of particular antibiotics didn't seem to matter anymore," said Dr. Mark Miller, chief of infectious diseases at Montreal's Jewish General Hospital.

From FMD to Bird Flu, Super Bugs, Psuedo-Rabies and Cancer: How it Works

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A brief history of alerts and warnings from scientists about some of the emerging epidemics.

"The host's immune system may play both a protective and a pathogenic role."
Rev Infect Dis. 1982 Jul-Aug;4(4):851-8. Giardiasis: host-pathogen biology. Stevens DP. PMID: 6750749

"Only recently recognized as human pathogens, ...Cryptosporidium and Cyclospora have been shown to be transmitted through fecally contaminated food and water. The mode of transmission for microsporidia is still unclear. The laboratory diagnosis of these protozoa is difficult. The routine ova and parasites screen does not include screening for them."
Clin Lab Sci. 1997 Sep-Oct;10(5):273-8. Emerging intestinal protozoa: a diagnostic dilemma. Collins PA, Wright MS. University of Kentucky, Lexington 40536-0080, USA. PMID: 10177205

Brasseur P. Waterborne cryptosporidiosis: a major environmental risk. J Eukaryot Microbiol. 1997 Nov-Dec;44(6):67S-68S. PMID: 9508449

"...disease associated with exposure to low levels of waterborne protozoa are of increasing concern. Current methodologies may not be sensitive enough to define these low levels of disease. ...Single microbial exposures (non-threshold) are capable of causing symptomatic illness unlike traditional chemical exposures, which require a threshold to be reached. Due to the lack of efficient recovery and detection methods for protozoa, we may be underestimating the occurrence, concentration and distribution of these pathogenic micro-organisms."
Parasitology. 1998;117 Suppl:S205-12. Risk assessment of waterborne protozoa: current status and future trends. Gibson CJ 3rd, Haas CN, Rose JB. Department of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg 33701, USA. PMID: 10660941

"The initial cases were not diagnosed as cryptosporidiosis by the health-care system despite patients seeking care, underscoring the need for increased awareness of cryptosporidiosis and routine laboratory diagnostic practices among health-care providers."
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1998 Oct 16;47(40):856-60. Outbreak of cryptosporidiosis associated with a water sprinkler fountain--Minnesota, 1997. PMID: 9790661

"The signs are that the growing strength of molecular epidemiology on the one side, and of a global epidemiology based on information systems on the other, will come to dominate epidemiology and segregate it into separate disciplines. At the same time, the links with public health interests grow weaker. A multilevel ecoepidemiology has the potential to bind these strands together."
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1998 Oct;52(10):608-11. Does risk factor epidemiology put epidemiology at risk? Peering into the future. Susser M. Columbia University, Sergievsky Center, New York, NY 10032, USA. PMID: 10023453

"Recognized as waterborne parasites, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Cyclospora have now been associated with several foodborne outbreaks. The oocysts and cysts of these organisms can persist and survive for long periods of time both in water and on foods. As a result, these parasites have emerged as public health risks and have become a concern to the food industry. Control and prevention of protozoan foodborne disease depends upon our ability to prevent, remove, or kill protozoan contaminants. This review will address the biology, foodborne and waterborne transmission, survival, and methods for detection and control ...."
J Food Prot. 1999 Sep;62(9):1059-70. Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Cyclospora and their impact on foods: a review. Rose JB, Slifko TR. Department of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg 33701, USA. PMID: 10492484

"The environmental route of transmission is important for many protozoan and helminth parasites, with water, soil and food being particularly significant. Both the potential for producing large numbers of transmissive stages and their environmental robustness, being able to survive in moist microclimates for prolonged periods of time, pose a persistent threat to public and veterinary health. Global sourcing of food, coupled with changing consumer vogues, including the consumption of raw vegetables and undercooking to retain the natural taste and preserve heat-labile nutrients, can increase the risk of foodborne transmission. Robust, efficient detection, viability and typing methods are required to assess risks and to further epidemiological understanding."
Int J Parasitol. 2000 Nov;30(12-13):1379-93. Emerging parasite zoonoses associated with water and food. Slifko TR, Smith HV, Rose JB. College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, FL 33701, St. Petersburg, USA. PMID: 11113263

"Various disinfection processes ...produce certain types and amounts of disinfection by-products (DBPs), including trihalomethanes (THM), haloacetic acids, haloacetonitriles, and bromate, among others. Human health risks from the ubiquitous exposure to complex mixtures of DBPs are of concern because existing epidemiologic and toxicologic studies suggest the existence of systemic or carcinogenic effects."
Drug Chem Toxicol. 2000 Feb;23(1):307-21. A multiple-purpose design approach to the evaluation of risks from mixtures of disinfection by-products. Teuschler LK, Gennings C, Stiteler WM, Hertzberg RC, Colman JT, Thiyagarajah A, Lipscomb JC, Hartley WR, Simmons JE. NCEA, U.S. EPA, Cincinnati, OH, USA. PMID: 10711404

"The measures needed to prevent food-borne protozoa causing disease require clear assessments of the risks of contamination and the effectiveness of processes to inactivate them. The globalisation of food production can allow new routes of transmission, and advances in diagnostic detection methods and surveillance systems have extended the range of protozoa that may be linked to food."
Br Med Bull. 2000;56(1):209-35. Food-borne protozoa. Nichols GL. Environmental Surveillance Unit, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK. PMID: 10885117

"These findings, ...clearly demonstrate the presence of low level, asymptomatic infections in post-weaned and adult cattle in the United States and indicate the potential role of such cattle as reservoirs of infectious parasites."
Vet Parasitol. 2000 Nov 10;93(2):103-12. Prevalence of Cryptosporidium, Giardia and Eimeria infections in post-weaned and adult cattle on three Maryland farms. Fayer R, Trout JM, Graczyk TK, Lewis EJ. United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, 10300 Baltimore Avenue, Building 1040, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA. PMID: 11035228

"Waterborne diseases, such as cryptosporidiosis, cause many cases of serious illness in the United States annually. Recommendations are made for government actions that would increase the efficiency of efforts to ensure water quality; protect watersheds; strengthen waterborne disease surveillance; and protect the health of vulnerable populations."
Am J Public Health. 2000 Jun;90(6):847-53. Water quality laws and waterborne diseases: Cryptosporidium and other emerging pathogens. Gostin LO, Lazzarini Z, Neslund VS, Osterholm MT. Georgetown/Johns Hopkins Program on Law and Public Health, Washington, DC, USA. PMID: 10846499

"During the last 30 years, our concept of cryptosporidiosis has changed from that of a rare, largely asymptomatic disease, to an important cause of diarrhea in animals and humans worldwide. Cryptosporidium are now ubiquitous and disease has been described in over 79 host species. "
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2000;916:102-11. Cryptosporidiosis. A global challenge. Mosier DA, Oberst RD. Department of Diagnostic Medicine/Pathobiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas 66506, USA. PMID: 11193609

"...waterborne infections from agents such as Cryptosporidium parvum and Escherichia coli: O157:H7 might be transmitted from contaminated water to humans through drinking water; from interpersonal contact; or from infected individuals to the environment, and back to other susceptible individuals. These multiple pathways and the dependency of exposure on the prevalence of infection in a population suggest that epidemiological models are required to complement standard risk assessments in order to quantify the risk of infection. This paper presents new models of infection transmission systems that ...are designed to help inform water treatment system design decisions."
Sci Total Environ. 2001 Jul 2;274(1-3):197-207. Infection transmission system models for microbial risk assessment. Chick SE, Koopman JS, Soorapanth S, Brown ME. Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109-2117, USA. PMID: 11453296

"Unusual findings included two enteroinvasive E. coli strains, one Shigella dysenteriae 2 isolate, and a non-O:1 Vibrio cholerae culture. EPEC bacteria and S. flexneri (but not Salmonella) showed unusually frequent antimicrobial resistance, especially towards beta-lactam antibiotics..."
J Clin Microbiol. 2001 Jun;39(6):2134-9. Etiology of children's diarrhea in Montevideo, Uruguay: associated pathogens and unusual isolates. Torres ME, Pirez MC, Schelotto F, Varela G, Parodi V, Allende F, Falconi E, Dell'Acqua L, Gaione P, Mendez MV, Ferrari AM, Montano A, Zanetta E, Acuna AM, Chiparelli H, Ingold E. Bacteriology and Virology Department, Institute of Hygiene, School of Medicine, Universidad de la Republica, CP 11600, Montevideo, Uruguay. PMID: 11376047

"This is the first time that parasites have been detected on vegetables and fruit obtained in a highly developed. wealthy country, without there being an outbreak situation. These findings may have important implications for global food safety."
J Food Prot. 2001 Nov;64(11):1793-8. Occurrence of parasites on fruits and vegetables in Norway. Robertson LJ, Gjerde B. Department of Pharmacology, Microbiology and Food Hygiene, The Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Oslo. PMID: 11726161

RE: CHRONICALLY INFECTED BUT ASYMPTOMATIC: "asymptomatic" means that the disease does not show up on standard tests - it does not mean that the disease is not progressive, or that infected people don't feel pain or other degenerative effects.

"...most of the participant families were chronically infected but asymptomatic. Our findings highlighted differences in the transmission mode of these two pathogens..."
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2002 Jun;66(6):794-8. Hyperendemic Cryptosporidium and Giardia in households lacking municipal sewer and water on the United States-Mexico border. Redlinger T, Corella-Barud V, Graham J, Galindo A, Avitia R, Cardenas V. Department of Biologic Sciences and Center for Environmental Resource Management, The University of Texas at El Paso, 79968, USA. PMID: 12224594

"The presence of human pathogenic parasites in irrigation waters used in the production of crops traditionally consumed raw suggests that there may be a risk of infection to consumers who come in contact with or eat these products."
J Food Prot. 2002 Feb;65(2):378-82. Detection of protozoan parasites and microsporidia in irrigation waters used for crop production. Thurston-Enriquez JA, Watt P, Dowd SE, Enriquez R, Pepper IL, Gerba CP. US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, University of Nebraska, Lincoln 68583-0934, USA. PMID: 11848571

"...a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy."
Environ Health Perspect. 2002 Aug;110(8):783-90. Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens. Eisenberg JN, Brookhart MA, Rice G, Brown M, Colford JM Jr. Center for Occupational and Environmental Health and School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. PMID: 12153759

"As the epidemiology of waterborne diseases is changing, there is a growing global public health concern about new and reemerging infectious diseases that are occurring through a complex interaction of social, economic, evolutionary, and ecological factors."
Crit Rev Microbiol. 2002;28(1):1-26. Emerging waterborne infections: contributing factors, agents, and detection tools. Theron J, Cloete TE. Department of Microbiology and Plant Pathology, University of Pretoria, South Africa. PMID: 12003038

�Problems in the management of waterborne communicable disease outbreaks.� Commun Dis Public Health. 2002 Sep;5(3):183-4. Mayon-White R. PMID: 12434687

"The results confirm the resistance of Clostridium perfringens spores, enteroviruses and protozoa to chlorination and demonstrate the relative persistence of these organisms in the effluents even during the ultraviolet light treatment. The yields also emphasise the influence of the analytical method for the determination of protozoan parasites."
New Microbiol. 2002 Oct;25(4):413-20. Fate of bacterial indicators, viruses and protozoan parasites in a wastewater multi-component treatment system. Bonadonna L, Briancesco R, Cataldo C, Divizia M, Donia D, Pana A. Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Laboratorio di Igiene Ambientale, Roma, Italy. PMID: 12437220

"The transmission of Cryptosporidium and Giardia through treated water supplies that meet water quality standards demonstrates that water treatment technologies have become inadequate, and that a negative coliform no longer guarantees that water is free from all pathogens, especially from protozoan agents. Substantial concern persists that low levels of pathogen occurrence may be responsible for the endemic transmission of enteric disease. In addition to Giardia and Cryptosporidium, some species of genera Cyclospora, Isospora, and of family Microsporidia are emerging as opportunistic pathogens and may have waterborne routes of transmission. More than 15 different groups of viruses, encompassing more than 140 distinct types can be found in the human gut. Some cause illness unrelated with the gut epithelium, such as Hepatitis A virus (HAV) and Hepatitis E virus (HEV). The most striking concern is that enteric viruses such as caliciviruses and some protozoan agents, such as Cryptosporidium, are the best candidates to reach the highest levels of endemic transmission, because they are ubiquitous in water intended for drinking, being highly resistant to relevant environmental factors, including chemical disinfecting procedures."
Crit Rev Microbiol. 2002;28(4):371-409. Microbial agents associated with waterborne diseases. Leclerc H, Schwartzbrod L, Dei-Cas E. Faculte de Medecine de Lille, and Institut Pasteur de Lille, France. PMID: 12546197

"The major protozoan species that affect humans are Entamoeba histolytica, Acanthamoeba sp., Neagleria sp. Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Toxoplasma gondii, Isospora/Sarcocystis sp. Encephalitozoom intestinals and Enterocytozoon bieneuisi. These parasites exist in the environment as oocyst, cysts or spores, which are the transmissive stages in many environmental conditions, e.g. water, soil, food as well as being infective stages to subsequent generation of hosts. Global concern with parasitic contamination of our environment must influence development of better detection methods and of evaluation and risk assessment of these infections."
Acta Microbiol Pol. 2003;52 Suppl:97-107. Environmental contamination with protozoan parasite infective stages: biology and risk assessment. Sinski E. Department of Parasitology, Institute of Zoology, Miecznikowa 1 str., 02-096 Warsaw, Poland. PMID: 15058818

"The results of this study do not support the hypothesis that drinking water is an independent risk factor for cryptosporidiosis .... These findings should be used to design larger studies of endemic cryptosporidiosis to elucidate the precise mechanisms of transmission, whether waterborne or other."
BMC Public Health. 2003 Mar 07;3(1):11. Print 2003 Mar 7. Is drinking water a risk factor for endemic cryptosporidiosis? A case-control study in the immunocompetent general population of the San Francisco Bay Area. Khalakdina A, Vugia DJ, Nadle J, Rothrock GA, Colford JM Jr. Division of Public Health Biology and Epidemiology, Centers for Family & Community Health and Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. PMID: 12689343

"Our study showed that these two protozoan exist in dairy farm soil at different rates, and this risk could be modified by manipulating the pH of the soil."
J Dairy Sci. 2003 Mar;86(3):784-91. Factors associated with the likelihood of Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp. in soil from dairy farms. Barwick RS, Mohammed HO, White ME, Bryant RB. Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. PMID: 12703614

"Predation by free-living protozoa and rotifers was investigated as a possible mechanism for the removal of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in aquatic ecosystems including wastewater treatment plants. All organisms investigated ingested oocysts. Predation activity and rates of ingestion varied with predator species and prey density. The significance of predation on the fate of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment is discussed."
Water Sci Technol. 2003;47(3):77-83. Predation of Cryptosporidium oocysts by protozoa and rotifers: implications for water quality and public health. Stott R, May E, Ramirez E, Warren A. Dept of Civil Engineering, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3QL, UK . PMID: 12639009

"Because filth flies carry viable C. parvum oocysts and G. lamblia cysts acquired naturally from unhygienic sources, they can be involved in the epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis."
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2003 Feb;68(2):228-32. Detection of Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia lamblia carried by synanthropic flies by combined fluorescent in situ hybridization and a monoclonal antibody. Graczyk TK, Grimes BH, Knight R, Da Silva AJ, Pieniazek NJ, Veal DA. The W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA. PMID: 12641416

"This article provides an overview of the waterborne disease (WBD) issue in developed countries (USA, Canada, UK and other European countries). The factors involved in the epidemiology of waterborne infection are analysed (microbial, social, environmental, etc.) and the main WBD etiological agents are described with particular interest to emerging pathogens (i.e. Cryptosporidium parvum, Legionella and Calicivirus)."
Ann Ist Super Sanita. 2004;40(1):117-40. [Drinking water microbiological risk in developed countries] Carraro E, Bonetta S, Palumbo F, Gilli G. Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ambiente e della Vita, Universita del Piemonte Orientale "A. Avogadro", Alessandria. PMID: 15269459

"Washington -- Scientists are researching ways that genetically modified (GM) insects could be used to stop the spread of diseases that affect livestock and crops, reduce pesticide use and create pharmaceutical proteins, said speakers at a "Biotech Bugs" conference held September 20-21 in Washington. However, speakers said, more regulations need to be developed, and must be clear and coordinated among government agencies to ensure that the development of improved insects includes adequate risk assessments."
"Biotech Bugs" Could Stop Spread of Diseases, Scientists Say

Right. And infectious prions only cause brain disease.


Also See:

Community-Acquired MRSA on the Upswing; Linked to Necrotizing Fasciitis

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) Apr 06 - Infections with community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are becoming more prevalent in cities across the US, according to reports in The New England Journal of Medicine for April 7th. The infection is even being associated with necrotizing fasciitis.

....These reports "clearly [represent] an epidemic of MRSA in the community," Dr. Henry F. Chambers, from the University of California-San Francisco, states in a related editorial.

"Clinical trials will be sorely needed to determine the precise role of antimicrobial agents in the treatment of uncomplicated skin and soft-tissue infections and to identify which agents are most clinically effective and cost-effective," he adds.

A review of pathological, molecular, and biochemical evidence supporting the hypothesis that herpesviruses are involved in the development of vascular diseases. PMID: 9514401

Mad Cow Madness

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Population Control Bioweapon? Medical Accident? What is Fibromuscular Dysplasia (FMD)?

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 01:01 PM
It's been almost a week since the last big "it's gonna happen, really!" post.

I'd be more concerned with that little "pig flu" out of China.

Makes me wonder, how much of this is Big Pharma helping the hype...and how much is this a reaction to bioterroism threats.

Or is this some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy? Where if there's enough coverage about how the germ reacts, how it's spread, and where to obtain it, and how vulnerable America is to it. Then sit back and hope someone in the extremist world gets the clue and deploys it as a weapon. Then, Media and it's well-funded connections sit back and claim to be uninvolved while profiting from the news ratings and the vaccines they manufacture. Helps with that darned overpopulation problem too. Big win for the environmental front too.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Phugedaboudet
It's been almost a week since the last big "it's gonna happen, really!" post.

I'd be more concerned with that little "pig flu" out of China.

There is info on the "Pig Flu" you reference. It's supposed to be a common strep BACTERIUM that is controlled by common antibiotics, yet it's still spreading and killing. Fact this type of strep has only infected humans 200 times since 1968 yet this past 6 weeks, China has had 238 cases with 41 deaths!

There is a concensus that this is not a bacteria but maybe H5N1 in another of it's variants. Ebola and plague have also been mentioned. We don't know because China refuses to hand over samples.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 01:27 PM

Originally posted by Phugedaboudet
Makes me wonder, how much of this is Big Pharma helping the hype...and how much is this a reaction to bioterroism threats.

IF the h5n1 strain becomes a human pandemic people will be begging 'big bad pharma' to do everything they can to save millions. And they won't be able to save as many because of the liabilities oof producing and fielding anti-viral medications.

To be sure, there is a lot of hysteria around this Avian Flu. But its not 'hype'. There is a real danger that it could become a human pandemic and it will kill millions if it does.

There is no human immunity to a h5N1 type of flu, this is because that type hasn't been in ciruclation in the current living human population. There is no medicine that cures nor vaccinates against it properly, and there will not be any until months upon months after the outbreak occurs (if it occurs).

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Nygdan
But its not 'hype'. There is a real danger that it could become a human pandemic and it will kill millions if it does.


The companies that produce antivirals can not make enough to help. Vaccines would take 6 months to produce and that's if the H5N1 virus does not recombine again into a novel type.

Think about it. The 1918 pandemic killed 40-80 million at only a 3-5% case rate fatality.
The H5N1 that has been spreading is showing a 50% case fatility rate!!!!
Assuming a world wide 40% infection matrix means that 2.4 Billion people become infected and 50% of them die......thats 1.2 billion dead compared to the 1918 80 million.....

The H5N1 isolate from Qinghai Lake in China has obtained the HUMAN sequence E627K which has never been seen in avian influenza's before and when tested in the lab, was 100% lethal to chickens in 20 hours and 95% lethal to mice within four (4) days.

And for anyone thinking that this is a bioweapon...get real. You would not release any bioweapon that you can not control, or protect yourself from.

[edit on 4-8-2005 by gman55]

[edit on 4-8-2005 by gman55]

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 04:29 PM

Originally posted by gman55
And for anyone thinking that this is a bioweapon...get real. You would not release any bioweapon that you can not control, or protect yourself from.
[edit on 4-8-2005 by gman55]

Unless, of course, you've already vaccinated your own people.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 04:47 PM
Here is a little info that seemed particulary relevant in light of the "little pig flu" mentioned:

Recent research findings give further cause for concern. New research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) for mammals than earlier H5 viruses and are becoming more widespread in birds in the region. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 are now shedding more virus for longer periods of time without showing any symptoms of illness. This has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5 infection among pigs in China and H5 infection in felines (experimental infection in housecats in the Netherlands and isolation of H5N1 viruses from infected tigers and leopards in Thailand ), suggesting that cats could host or transmit the infection. These finding are particularly worrisome in light of the fact that reassortment of avian influenza genomes is most likely to occur when these viruses demonstrate a capacity to infect multiple species, as is now the case in Asia.

Available at: CDC on Avian Influenza

All I can think about is a little man cowering under an umbrella in the face of an avalanche. With China's policies as they are, I don't see much hope for this not spreading. It is a particularly unappealing thought. @@: What are our methods for personally combatting such a disease, other than hiding in our homes eating canned food and bottled water? I have a few "quack" methods but they are very definitely not foolproof. :

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 04:53 PM
If we start seeing cases this year or next beginning to appear close to our cities I think it would probably be wise to start wearing the breathing masks that surgeons and painters use. If you work in schools, retail centers, grocery stores, or even gas stations it should be a must. I work at Wal-Mart so the first case I hear about in Tampa im poppin on my mask.

Better to be safe than sorry right? I dont know too much about this virus. A breathing mask would be sufficient barrier for this stuff right?

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 04:56 PM

What are our methods for personally combatting such a disease, other than hiding in our homes eating canned food and bottled water? I have a few "quack" methods but they are very definitely not foolproof. :

There are actually quite a few natural foods and extracts that are shown to inhibit viral replication in the is elderberry extract. See below.

Inhibition of several strains of influenza virus in vitro and reduction of symptoms by an elderberry extract (Sambucus nigra L.) during an outbreak of influenza B Panama.

Zakay-Rones Z, Varsano N, Zlotnik M, Manor O, Regev L, Schlesinger M, Mumcuoglu M.

Department of Virology, Hebrew University-Hadassah Medical School, Jerusalem, Israel.

A standardized elderberry extract, Sambucol (SAM), reduced hemagglutination and inhibited replication of human influenza viruses type A/Shangdong 9/93 (H3N2), A/Beijing 32/92 (H3N2), A/Texas 36/91 (H1N1), A/Singapore 6/86 (H1N1), type B/Panama 45/90, B/Yamagata 16/88, B/Ann Arbor 1/86, and of animal strains from Northern European swine and turkeys, A/Sw/Ger 2/81, A/Tur/Ger 3/91, and A/Sw/Ger 8533/91 in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. A placebo-controlled, double blind study was carried out on a group of individuals living in an agricultural community (kibbutz) during an outbreak of influenza B/Panama in 1993. Fever, feeling of improvement, and complete cure were recorded during 6 days. Sera obtained in the acute and convalescent phases were tested for the presence of antibodies to influenza A, B, respiratory syncytial, and adenoviruses. Convalescent phase serologies showed higher mean and mean geometric hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers to influenza B in the group treated with SAM than in the control group. A significant improvement of the symptoms, including fever, was seen in 93.3% of the cases in the SAM-treated group within 2 days, whereas in the control group 91.7% of the patients showed an improvement within 6 days (p < 0.001). A complete cure was achieved within 2 to 3 days in nearly 90% of the SAM-treated group and within at least 6 days in the placebo group (p < 0.001). No satisfactory medication to cure influenza type A and B is available. Considering the efficacy of the extract in vitro on all strains of influenza virus tested, the clinical results, its low cost, and absence of side-effects, this preparation could offer a possibility for safe treatment for influenza A and B.


*Quercetin, an anti-viral found in onions can reduce tissue damage caused by influenza infection.

*The active component in fresh crushed garlic cloves, Allicin, is virucidal against herpes, influenza, vaccinia and cold viruses. A fresh crushed garlic clove can yield up to 13,000 micrograms of Allicin. Only fresh garlic should be used during viral outbreaks and should be included in foods as a method of building up natural immunity.

*Three remarkable studies show that Elderberry syrup reduces the duration and severity of a flu bout by 3-4 days. A complete cure in 2 to 3 days was recorded in one of the studies by 9 out of 10 patients, compared to 6 days for untreated patients. Elderberry syrup appears to be a safe treatment for influenza Type A and B. Repeated dosing, 5 x per day, appears to be important. Elderberry appears to render viruses nonfunctional by staining and coating them.

*A study conducted in Italy shows that NAC (N-acetyl cysteine), a sulfur dietary suppement, quells the syumptoms of the flu and only 25% of virus infected individuals developed the symptomatic form of the virus versus 79% taking an inactive placebo tablet.

*Mega doses of Vitamin C, 1,000 mg. taken hourly for the first 6 hours and then 3 times daily thereafter has been shown to reduce cold and flu symptoms in 85% of infected adults. The addition of vitamin E with Vitamin C may be synergistic.

Glyconutrients - 8 monosaccharides shown to have very potent antiviral properties. Can find individual sugars or together as supplement. Fucose from Fucodian is particularly anti-viral. See testimony before Congressional Committe on Bioterroism regarding glyconutrients: "Evidence Supporting the Potential for Glyconutrients and Micronutrient Dietary Supplementation to Support Nautral Defense and Heal Mechanisms to Ameliorate Bacterial, Viral and Fungal Infections."

A study on glyconutrients in this testimony did show an increase in cytokines. I've written to the researcher represented at the Hearing to ask his opinion about Cytokine storms.

Nanomasks, one of few masks with filter that will stop a virus, can be ordered at: 702-558-5164
$4.95 for the mask and $.50 for filters that last 24 hours.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 06:06 PM
gman You rock! Always available with pertinent data. Thanks.

However, I too am concerned about the cytokine storms. Particularly when viewed in light of statements like these:

Recent clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory evidence suggests that the impact of a pandemic caused by the current H5N1 strain would be similar to that of the 1918-19 pandemic. More than half of the people killed in that pandemic were 18 to 40 years old and largely healthy. If 1918-19 mortality data are extrapolated to the current U.S. population, 1.7 million people could die, half of them between the ages of 18 and 40. Globally, those same estimates yield 180-360 million deaths, more than five times the cumulative number of documented AIDS deaths. In 1918-19, most deaths were caused by a virus-induced response of the victim's immune system -- a cytokine storm -- which led to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In other words, in the process of fighting the disease, a person's immune system severely damaged the lungs, resulting in death. Victims of H5N1 have also suffered from cytokine storms, and the world is not much better prepared to treat millions of cases of ARDS today than it was 85 years ago. In the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics, the primary cause of death was secondary bacterial pneumonias that infected lungs weakened by influenza. Although such bacterial infections can often be treated by antibiotics, these drugs would be either unavailable or in short supply for much of the global population during a pandemic.

And being uneducated in elderberry properties, this sort of statement

We conclude from this study that, in addition to its antiviral properties, Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production.

makes me need more input. I did try to find the original source of the article but wasn't able to on such short notice.

I know this is probably not the right forum to go into all of this, but I believe that the saying forewarned is forearmed is quite apropos. If we are able to arm ourselves against the extreme likelihood of this pandemic (or any event for that matter) occurring, then that knowledge should be the most sought after and frequently displayed.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 06:42 PM
I have started a thread regarding a preparedness list of items needed to combat this disease. I would like members to contribute ideas to this thread an hopefully it will get a well rounded list of things we need to protect ourselves and our loved ones.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 06:49 PM
Mayet you "got it" thanks for starting a thread on countermeasures. Exactly what was needed.

posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 07:22 PM
There are also 600 geese killed by bird flu in Kazakhstan... ( - August 04, 2005)

And don´t forget these two recent ATS threads :

  • Russia's Novosibirsk Region reports Outbreak of Bird Flu. (by sanctum)

  • NEWS: Bird Flu Hits Russia's Siberia Region. (by Mayet)

    4,035 wild and domestic birds have died of bird flu in the Novosibirsk, Omsk, Altai and Tyumen regions.

    The autumn migration of migrating wild birds will begin soon, if it hasn´t already...

  • posted on Aug, 4 2005 @ 09:31 PM

    Originally posted by Hellmutt
    There are also 600 geese killed by bird flu in Kazakhstan... ( - August 04, 2005)

    And don´t forget these two recent ATS threads :

  • Russia's Novosibirsk Region reports Outbreak of Bird Flu. (by sanctum)

  • NEWS: Bird Flu Hits Russia's Siberia Region. (by Mayet)

    4,035 wild and domestic birds have died of bird flu in the Novosibirsk, Omsk, Altai and Tyumen regions.

    The autumn migration of migrating wild birds will begin soon, if it hasn´t already...

  • This is very disturbing also...

    Seems to be H5N1 in humans already.

    [edit on 4-8-2005 by gman55]

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