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NEWS: New Intelligence Estimate Revises Iran Nuclear Bomb Capability

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posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 10:51 PM
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The Washington Post is reporting that a new National Intelligence Estimate suggests that Iran is about a decade away from completing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon. In February, Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, testified before Congress that Iran was "within five years" of a nuclear capability. Similar estimates have been made by U.S. officials since 1995, according to the Post.
 



www.washingtonpost.com
A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that "all options are on the table."

The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is that Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bombmaking.




Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


I think the most important fact in the article is the last sentence quoted above. Iran is developing technology that can be used to build a nuclear bomb. Independent of whatever else is happening in the region, this is not good for Middle East stability.




posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 11:32 PM
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Hey does anybody else think it's weird that we control Iraq, which would have been the main opposition to Isreali aircraft en route to Iran? Anybody else think this whole Iraq business might actually be about Iran?

Perhaps the reason they put out this intel report is to make people more relaxed about Iran. I mean I don't think the President would want to make it look like we actually have anything to worry about, in order to aviod another Iraq. That is until we have "evidence" that Iran has nukes.

But thats just one of my theories on this business.



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 06:18 AM
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The Bush administration should 'put up or shut up' with regards to supposed ethereal Iranian nuclear weapons. Give us some proof that they are going for nuclear weapons or shut your hole.

Why is speculation and conjecture considered holy writ soley because it comes from the American government? Saddam has WMD's yeah that was a good one. We'll find them in Iraq, yeah another good one.

[edit on 2/8/05 by subz]



posted on Aug, 2 2005 @ 10:38 PM
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originally posted by subz
The Bush administration should 'put up or shut up' with regards to supposed ethereal Iranian nuclear weapons. Give us some proof that they are going for nuclear weapons or shut your hole.


Interestingly, it isn't just the Bush adminstration making claims about Iran's nuclear capability. About midway down in the story is the following statement:



Since 1995, U.S. officials have continually estimated Iran to be "within five years" from reaching that same capability. So far, it has not.


So, in light of this - I'd say that it is the entire intelligence community as a whole that should put up or shut up - it's not just the Bush administration.



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 05:27 AM
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Originally posted by ChemicalLaser
So, in light of this - I'd say that it is the entire intelligence community as a whole that should put up or shut up - it's not just the Bush administration.

Thats a good point ChemicalLaer. I wasnt being partisan in refering to the Bush administration.



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 05:33 AM
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BBC's 'Newsnight' reported that the timeframe involved for viable Iranian nuclear weapons was now 10 years, as opposed to the aforementioned 5. Some were speculating that this was indicative of a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy within the US, as opposed to the somewhat gung-ho attitude that has been perceived by many up to now. Whether this is true or not, who knows.



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 06:12 AM
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when they tell you iran is 45 minutes away from building it, that is the time to start worrying



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 06:28 AM
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Israel has been saying they are six months away from building it for a few years now.

This timetable seems a bit more realistic.



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 10:47 AM
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In all honesty, does anyone have a clue with what is actually happening in the world today. I am an American who is becoming very sceptical about everything I hear. News reporters, News agencies and our own Government cannot seem to find away to be on the same page with any topic since 9/11. I believe, but have no way of proving that this is nothing more than our own way to regenerate our decling economical situation.

If you really take a look at history what is diffrent now in the world than what history has already taught us to rejuvinate our own declining economy.

Diffrent place, same idea....



posted on Aug, 3 2005 @ 12:36 PM
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This is so funny. Why is it that the mainstream press simply spoouts what the PNAC wants them to. For anyone interested in the "intelligence source" that is mentioned in this article.
www.newamericancentury.org...

And if Keeping a heads up on the press is of interest, routinely check out the "what's new" section, usually you'll find it in the news within a few days to a week. I like this though
"Indeed, given how little we know, the intelligence community estimate is just as likely to be wrong as right when it comes to predicting Iran’s program"


[edit on 3-8-2005 by phoenixhasrisin]

[edit on 3-8-2005 by phoenixhasrisin]




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