Although it is not mentioned in any news sources outside CIS, Saakashvilli has been arresting much of his opposition lately, as well as members of his own administration who voice their opinions against starting another war. Russian news reports several senior politicians being arrested on baseless charges in the last several weeks. Furthermore yesterday I heard a report of Georgian forces firing upon South Ossetian police forces. It appears that what the West hailed as a democracy, is now degenerating into a dictatorship headed by Saakashvilli. And furthermore it seems that every action taken by him and his generals, moves the country only closer to war. I for one do not doubt that restarting the war was his intention all along. Apart from what you belive about the nature of Georgian conflict, Saakashvilli is a dangerous leader who's unyielding and uncompromising behavior can only lead to more bloodshed. And US is placing all hopes on this guy, which could create severe consequences.


Of all of the things I am unable to understand, is the position of the US, which is obviously supporting Saakashvilli. US is arming various Georgian forces (including paramilitary ones) to the teeth. They have also made massive investments in the new pipeline running through Georgia from Azerbaijan, and into Turkey. But if he is a puppet, why is he interested in a war that would potentially drag in Russia? The last thing US needs is to worsen relations with Russia over Georgia. So who does Saakashvilli work for- because its obviously not for the better of Georgia?

I think it is far more likely that there might be an attack on Abkhazia/South ossetia than on Transdniester. Moldova is too weak to take on Transdniester by itself, considering how well armed the separatists are. Ukraine said it will not interfere beyond closely patroling the borders. And NATO will not dare attack it if there is a possibility of confrontation with Russians. The Russians are there, and so is the FSB, and you can be sure NATO will not tread on their turf.

Georgia is more likely because Saakashvilli has adequate power to carry out an attack without any help. Also now I am beginning to think that Russia will not interfere openly, and if anything starts it will get its Peace Keepers out. I know that South Ossetia especially is very nervous right now. Same thing as with Chechnya- most people don't really care if they are part of Georgia or not, but the hard line separatists will drag the whole population into the conflict. If Saaka doesn't want armed conflict, why is he rousing up the entire population in that way? Its not like Georgia has reason to fear an attack from anybody, so the only reason is it is preparing for attack.

And Americans couldn't care less where the weapons they paid for with their tax dollars are going- and what new conflicts they are going to start. If not for American help Saakashvilli wouldn't be as bold and unyeilding as he is.

There is certainly an alliance forming as obvious here and other recent events.

Armenia has long been allies with Russia, and never had any discord between them. Russia supported Armenia against both the Turks and the Azeriis. On the other hand the US camp consists of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, so there is no wonder that the two are forming better relations - even though Georgia is predominantly Christian (as is Armenia), and Azerbaijan is Muslim.

I certainly hope that whatever **** breaks out there, that Armania won't be involved. That country has suffered many struggles in the past century, and now is vitrually surrounded by potential enemies (also considering half of its land is still under Turkish occupation and a small part under Azerbaijani control). Watch for Russia and Armenia strengthening their ties in this power play.

There have been reports of Russian civilians fleeing from Georgia.
Allso there have been rumors (no solid facts or internet links) that for about a month Russia has been rotating top-end equipment from North-West garrisons to somewhere and replacing them with older worn out gear... This might be bull# or real, i heard it from people who regulary visit russian bases around st.petersburg

Russia is signaling Georgia that Saakashvilli is going too far. Maybe there really was a threat to the embassy staff, but most probably not. However this move by Russia is showing that a complete severance of all ties with Georgia is about to start- economic and political. Even if war doesn't break out now, there will still be high tensions for years to come.

This is top story on nearly all Russian news. There are constant news talk shows about implications of these events, and it doesn't look good. The thing I am wondering about, is how does Georgia expect to win any war against Russia, if a war indeed starts. They are pushing for Russian peace keepers to get out of separatist regions. I can assure you that Russia will not budge (at least untill Putin is in charge). If Georgia still decides to attack, there will be very severe implications.



I love it how there is completely no mention of this in any US media. Don't want anybody to question what US is doing heating up another war overseas. This potential war will be financed with US money, and US will be largely responsible. But between Iraq, Iran and national affairs nobody in US could give least care.

[edit on 30-9-2006 by maloy]