Abkhaz Leader Has Ordered Army To Sink Any Georgian Ships In Its Waters

Looks like Georgia and Ukraine may decide to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)! Russia is already considering canceling benefits for Georgia and Ukraine. According to some Russian "experts" a withdrawal will be a bad move for Georgia and Ukraine...

Abkhazia said Friday that they will never give up their hard-gained independence, "paid for with human blood". This was said as a response to a Georgian statement that Georgia was willing to offer Abkhazia broad autonomy status.

The Abkhaz leader don't like Georgia's continous demands for withdrawal of the Russian troops from Abkhazia. They are now threatening to withdraw from negotiations and they are planting mines along the Georgia/Abkhazia "border".

WHAT!

THey're mining parts of Georgia?

Wow, its a good thing you've been covering this for so long, this is starting to heat up again it looks like.

The South Ossetian Security Council Secretery has been killed by a remote-controlled bomb. The South Ossetian interior minister blames Georgia for the murder. South Ossetia sees a link between this assassination and the recent bus blast in Tiraspol.



Related ATS Thread:
Terrorist attack in Europe: moldovia! (by DigitalGrl)

South Ossetia has sealed off approaches to the Georgian-Ossetian border and has stepped up border protection after the murder of Oleg Alborov. Georgia denies to have any involvement in the killing of the top security official.

There has been another bomb blast in South Ossetia. Two teenagers died and four others were injured. South Ossetia calls it an act of terror and blames Georgian secret services. They say the same explosives were used as in the assassination of Oleg Albarov. Georgia on the other hand blames Russian secret services. They claim Russia is arranging provocations with the purpose of starting a war.

Axis News

14.07.2006


Two teenagers died and four other civilians were badly injured as a result of a blast which occurred in early hours on July 14 in breakaway South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali.

This is a second explosion in Tskhinvali in a week. The first one killed Secretary of National Security Council of breakaway South Ossetia Oleg Albarov on July 9. “Explosive [used on July 14] is similar to the one which was used against Oleg Albarov,” the South Ossetian Press and Information Committee reported.

Axis News: Georgian MPs believe act of terror in Tskhinvali planned by Russian secret service

15.07.2006


South Ossetian Defence Minister Anatoly Barankevich told ITAR-TASS agency that the terrorist attack was aimed against the local parliament deputy and commander of a unit of the Defence Ministry, Bala Bestuta who was not hurt. Barankevich as claimed that those behind the act of terror are the Georgian secret services that fulfill the assigned plans for physical liquidation of South Ossetian leaders and prominent figures.

Chairman of parliament of Georgia Nino Burdzhanadze declared that the latest act of terror had been planned by the Russian secret services. As she said, “Russia is arranging provocations with the purpose to involve Georgia in large-scale military actions”.

Complete bull**** from Georgia. What interests do Russians have in starting a war in South Ossetia again? They are content with the situation the region is now- and it is Georgia reigniting fires this time. The sooner the war starts, the better it is for Georgia. It is very well armed, and many Georgians actually support another war. If only somebody knocked Saakashvilli and his band of US puppets from power. The last thing the world needs is another conflict covertly sponsored by the US.

A Russian General got his passport seized by Georgian military police. The diplomats were searched while shots were fired in the air and there was swearing and threats of elimination. The Russian General has now gotten his passport back. The Russians claim that Georgia wants war.

The President of Georgia told his army and his navy that major challenges and threats are ahead. Russia warns Georgia against use of force in South Ossetia. Georgia is provoked by Abkhazia's plans of a referendum on their independence. And the U.S. continues the SSOP program in Georgia.



Russia warns Georgia

Saakashvili: Abkhazian referendum plan is a provocation

No more talking

The Sustainment and Stability Operations (SSOP) continues

Georgia passed a resolution yesterday to replace the Russian peacekeepers with international peacekeepers. The Russians didn't like that at all...

Transnistria might send its "peacekeepers" to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. This is their response to Georgia's decision to oust the Russian troops from those Georgian provinces.


Related ATS Thread:
Tiraspol - Moldova - Mafia in Uniform

Russia and Georgia continues to trade accuations against each other. Abkhazia has issued a statement saying that the pullout of the Russian troops could lead to a war.

Georgian security forces are hunting an Abkhaz militia leader, Emzar Kvitsiani. They launched an anticrime operation to hunt him down. Georgian security forces intercepted some radio communication - It was Emzar Kvitsiani urging Russian troops to send a helicopter to evacuate him. Georgia now control the whole of Kodori Gorge. Kvitsiani got away and there is now a $57,000 reward for information leading to his capture. Saakashvili said Abkhazia's legitimate government would be based in the Kodori Gorge...

FYI,




Pres. Saakashvili aka "Misha"

Sporty

[edit on 30/7/2006 by SportyMB]

Russia urged Georgia to withdraw its troops from Kodori Gorge as it may trigger tensions if they don't. Abkhazia fear that Georgia might be planning a full scale invasion of "their territory". They say the reports of Kvitsiani's presence in Abkhazia might be used by Georgia as a pretext for an invasion.



Strange, isn't it? Country "A" telling country "B" to move their troops out of a territory which technically belongs to country "B"...

Georgia's defence minister, Irakli Okruashvili, said Monday that Georgia is ready for Kodori Gorge to be inspected by international observers. But only after an inspection has been held at the Russian military base in Gudaut...


Okruashvili also says that Emzar Kvitsiani is no longer in Abkhazia but hides in Russia... "According to our information he is now in Russia"

Georgia calls the Kodori operation "a success" but not everyone agrees with that statement. First of all Kvitsiani managed to escape, and the area which Saakashvili calls "the heart of Abkhazia" is described by others as nothing but a no-man's-land. A spokesman for the Abkhaz President said: "we have another word for what Saakashvili calls the heart". The article doesn't mention what word the Abkhazians use. When Saakashvili said "the heart", maybe he was refering to another area of Abkhazia? Maybe they plan to "establish Georgian jurisdiction and constitutional order in the heart" of Abkhazia in the near future?

U.S. military personnel in Georgia reported low morale among the Georgian servicemen during the Kodori operation. Russian unnamed "experts" said that the Georgian military is not yet professional enough. A Russian General said that starting a campaign in Kodori in summer would be suicidal. With mountains covered in foliage, providing excellent cover for the defending forces. There are reports of continous Georgian military build-up in the area. The question is whether they are going to advance into Abkhazia or not.

Maybe we'll find out after Transdnestria holds its referendum on independence on September 17th? There will be held large-scale NATO exercises in Moldova at the same time (Sept 11-29). If war breaks out there, it might break out in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well. How will Russia respond?

RFE/RL: Extent Of 'Victory' In Kodori Offensive Unclear

August 1, 2006


Speaking on national television on July 28, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said that Georgia now "directly controls a very important strategic part of the territory of Abkhazia," and will "establish Georgian jurisdiction and constitutional order in the heart" of that breakaway region.

Such claims are, however, an exaggeration, insofar as Georgia has merely extended its control over the upper reaches of the gorge -- formerly a no-man's-land controlled by Kvitsiani's Monadire (Hunter) militia -- as far as the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. Kristian Bzhania, a spokesman for Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh, derided the Georgian claims, telling regnum.ru that "we have another word for what Saakashvili calls the heart."

U.S. military personnel in Georgia described the Georgian troops' performance to one Washington analyst as less than stellar, noting that morale among the Georgian servicemen was not good and that at one point the operation was halted due to "inclement weather conditions." The Russian newspaper "Vedomosti" on July 28 likewise quoted unnamed "experts" as saying the Georgian military is not yet professional enough to conduct large-scale operations. Former Kodori Governor Kvitsiani, who managed to evade the advancing Georgian troops and whose current whereabouts are unknown, was particularly scathing. He said in video footage broadcast on July 30 by the independent Georgian television channel Imedi that claims that his fighters were surrounded were "laughable."

"Izvestia" on August 1 quoted an unnamed Russian general as saying that "starting a campaign in Kodori in summer would be suicidal." He pointed out that the mountains are covered in foliage, providing the enemy with excellent cover, and that it would be virtually impossible to use armor or heavy artillery. A Russian military analyst similarly noted that at one point the gorge narrows to the point that two platoons of Abkhaz special forces could easily block any further Georgian advance.

I've composed a limited military analysis on the situations in Gerogian and Moldovan

flashpoints.

Abkhaz - Georgia
Geography:
Mostly mountaineous, poor infrastructure, heavy foliage in the mountains covers defending

troops efectively from both ground based and airborne observation. Only very limited zones

are passable by armoured vehicles allowing the defender to easily control these choke points

with very limited manpower. RPGs and ATGMs placed in these points can create severe

deathtraps for advancing armoured units. Ideal

Military Power:
Georgian Air-Force has limited numbers of ground attack planes that are unable to sustain

prolonged CAS over the Abkhaz forces. Primary combat aircraft is SU-25 with 10 planes in

service.

Georgian Army has four Mechanized Brigades in operation readines, plus 15 battallions of

reserve troops (National Guard), Equipment is largely of Russian origin including but not

limited to T-72s, T-55s, BMP-1/2 and SP-Artillery. Mechanized Brigades should be considered as a credible threat, but low morale may reduce their effectiveness.

Abkhaz-forces are mainly infantry based guerilla forces, with some elements that could be concidered special forces and capable of conducting advanced manouvering and SF-Missions. Limited armored support might be present. Weaponry is mainly of Russian origin, some relatively modern ATGMs and Manpads may be present.

Possibility of external intervention:
Russian Intervention is possible, but that would require an all out war between Georgia and Russia, CIS peacekeepers will most likely stay out of the harms way in limited engagement scenarios.



S Ossetia - Georgia

Geography:
Mountaineous, but more accessible than Abkhazia. Several of the problems in Abkhazia exists.

Military Power:
Similar to the above.

Possibility of external intervention:
High probability of intervention, either by Moscow or directly by Paramilitary/security forces from Norther Ossetia. CIS/Russian forces in S Ossetia will probably participate if the region falls under attack.



Transdniestria - Moldova

Geography:
Flatlands, dotted with settelments and few larger cities, area is well suited for armoured operations, infrastucure is intact and allows rapid movement of forces. Primary feature of the possible battlefield is the Dniester River, Bridges along the river will be the key to success or failure for a campaign in the region. Ukrainian border is open and Transdniester could be easily be taken from the east.

Military Power:
No Credible sources available about Transdnistrian forces.
Moldovian Military is mainly equipied with Soviet leftovers, readines and training may be questionable.

Possibility of external intervention:
Russian forces in Transdniester (about 1000 men) Will most likely participate or at least support the Transnistrian "government". Ukraine may step in to pacify the area, incase the EU puts pressure on Ukranian Regime that's eager to please EU.

------

One possible reason for Transnistrians to begin the independency process might be Iranian influence. Iran desperately needs a distration from the nuclear issues. Full scale war in europe might buy them time. It's a possibility that Transnistrians have sold weaponry to Iran or Terrorists under Iranian influence.

Excellent post, northwolf!


Here are some recent news articles from Civil Georgia about the Abkhaz-Georgia situation.


Russian assault helicopter

A Russian assault helicopter flew over Georgian checkpoints dropping anti-heat seeking missiles. Georgia didn't like that at all.



Still fighting...

There are still clashes between Georgian troops and Abkhaz militia fighters. At least 10 people have been killed in the past couple of days.



Emzar Kvitsiani's nephew escaped into Abkhaz-controlled territory