Saakashvilli would have to be completely stupid and desperate to antagonise Russia and start another war.
Oh wait. He is.
Let Saakashvilli antagonise Russia again, this time Russia will go all the way to Tbilisi, (or initiate his removal another way) and the US
administration will drop him like a stone and not want to be seen to harm relations with Russia which have improved.
Saakashvilli's desperate, he is barely the mayor of Tbilisi, let alone President of Georgia, his power is that diminished. He has not got the overt
US support he once had thanks to the truth regarding Saakashvilli getting out, (Although he is still supported) and he has lost popular support. He
might feel a war is the only way to regain popularity. Perhaps, as he is getting beaten to a pulp, he will scream how the world has turned against him
and Georgia in favour of Russia. Might boost his standing amongst the more gullible and nationalistic of Georgia's population.
Of course, the majority see him as the grandstanding dwarf that he is.
It seems to me that Russia are simply sending a message to Georgia not to try anything against Abkhazia or South Ossetia, much like Medvedev's visit
to Abkhazia the other day sent out a message along the same lines, where a deal to base S-300's may have been brought about.
It's a statement of support too, to the South Ossetians and Abkhazians, we will protect you.
Of course, Russia may know something we don't....we will have to wait and see, but I think the S-300 is a statement of intent to defend South Ossetia
and Abkhazia from Saakashvili.
It will be a deterrence to the Georgian Air Force, I should imagine.
ROAR: “Enemies had better not fly to Abkhazia”
From the link:
ROAR: “Enemies had better not fly to Abkhazia"
Published 12 August, 2010, 16:24
As Russia’s military announce the deployment of S-300s in the former Georgia’s republic, analysts say these air defense systems were deployed
there two years ago.
Moscow has deployed an S-300 surface-to-air missile system in Abkhazia, Air Force Commander Col. Gen. Aleksandr Zelin said on August 11. He explained
that the system has been deployed to ensure security of the republic and Russian military base located in it.
The system should defend facilities in Abkhazia, while the air defense means the Ground Forces are responsible for protecting facilities in South
Ossetia, he explained.
Abkhaz Prime Minister Sergey Shamba said on August 11 that the deployment of the S-300s fully conform to bilateral agreements between Moscow and
Sukhum. “It is a defense system,” he told Interfax. “It is meant to defend the Russian military base and the territory of Abkhazia and is not
aimed against any third country,” he said.
The Georgian Foreign Ministry has protested the move. It poses a threat “not only to the Black Sea region, but to security in Europe in general,”
the ministry said in a statement.
Link
Wonderful to see this thread back by the way Hellmutt! One of my favourite threads, and one of the best. This thread was talking about the South
Ossetia-Abkhazia-Georgia issue long before it hid the headlines.
I'm glad to see this thread return to provide the latest information with the situation.
[edit on 12-8-2010 by Regensturm]
