Abkhaz Leader Has Ordered Army To Sink Any Georgian Ships In Its Waters

Let's say Russia recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In return, they might give Kosovo a seat in the UN. Will the west accept such a deal? But Armenia will then recognize Nagorno Karabakh, which might trigger a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The question is whether anybody, including Russia, will recognize NG or not. But if South Ossetia and Abkhazia gets recognized, why not NG too? Armenia risk ending up in a war with Azerbaijan without the full support/backup from Russia. If a full scale war breaks out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, what will Russia and NATO do? The BTC pipeline will be in danger again. We don't want a major clash between the superpowers. What will Turkey do? They're not good pals with the Armenians at all, genocide and all. Turkey has interests in protecting the BTC pipeline too, and might side with Azerbaijan against Armenia. But Turkey don't want war with Russia. What will Georgia do? Georgia is very important for Armenia. Armenia's borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed, so they don't want no trouble with Georgia. Almost everything that goes in/out of Armenia, import/export, goes through Georgia (Poti port). In this recent Georgia/Russia war, Armenia has been neutral. Armenia counts on Russia to help them in event of war. The question is how far Russia is willing to go in order to help them. Maybe Armenia pushing for NG's independence now will be a mistake? Enemies all around them...

With Abkhazia's independence, the Russian Navy will probably get a new base there, solving a problem with Ukraine.

Russia is about to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Medvedev has already said that he'd recognize them, if he's asked to do so. Today, they asked him to recognize them...


Federation Council unanimously passes appeal to president for independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia


Medvedev will most likely say yes. NATO's response? I have no clue...

Originally posted by Hellmutt
Let's say Russia recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In return, they might give Kosovo a seat in the UN. Will the west accept such a deal?

From reading Political Analysts' opinions in Russia (I posted them in another thread on the war), it is very unlikely that the West will recognize S Ossetia or Abkhazia as independent, or that they will be granted a seat in the UN.

It is more likely they will get a recognized economic independence however - allowing Russia and other countries to invest in the breakaway republics. For the mean time, economic independence will be major progress for them, and will allow them to rebuild and have a stable economy.

Before any official (UN-recognized) independence is achieved, there are still many problems to solve. One of the major ones is what to do with the Georgian minority in the breakaway regions, and who will protect them.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
But Armenia will then recognize Nagorno Karabakh, which might trigger a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Armenia knows that it must tread cautiously - it cannot afford a war. It has been blockaded during the 90's war by Turkey, and it severly hurt its economy. This time they would be blockaded by Georgia as well, and would not be able to receive aid from Russia. I wouldn't make any bets regarding Armenia just yet.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
But if South Ossetia and Abkhazia gets recognized, why not NG too?

Everyone recognized the dangerous precedent. What then about Crimea and Transdniester?

Originally posted by Hellmutt
If a full scale war breaks out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, what will Russia and NATO do? The BTC pipeline will be in danger again.

Well seeing how the BTC pipelines is in Azerbaijan I am more than sure NATO/US will throw full support behind them. Russia is certain to help Armenia - but with a geographical blockade it would be difficult.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
What will Turkey do? They're not good pals with the Armenians at all, genocide and all. Turkey has interests in protecting the BTC pipeline too, and might side with Azerbaijan against Armenia.

Turkey won't get involved militarily - directly that is. They will support Azerbaijan anyway they can though, including supplying arms.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
What will Georgia do? Georgia is very important for Armenia.

My guess is blockade Russian shipments to Armenia - if only to spite Russia. But other than that Georgia will never take any direct action against Armenia - that is certain.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
Armenia counts on Russia to help them in event of war.

Don't forget Iran. Ever since the Nagorno-Karabakh War Armenia has developed very good ties with Iran. They are practicaly an ally of Iran. Iran helped them out back in the 90's, and I am certain it would do the same (especially given that Iran has its own beef with Azerbaijan). Iran's help even without Russia should enable Armenia to stay afloat.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
With Abkhazia's independence, the Russian Navy will probably get a new base there, solving a problem with Ukraine.

It's not like Russia is in shortage of Black Sea coastline. Russia has plenty of small ports on the Black Sea - Tuapse, Sochi, Novorosyisk. The problem is - the ports are not large enough compared to Sevastopol, and do not yet have an established infrastructure to support a large military fleet. Also none offer as great natural harbor that Sevastopol does.

But there is major construction going on in Novorosyisk within Russia - that is where most of the fleet will be transfered - likely before 2012. Part is already stationed there. Plus Russia is working on a deal with Syria to base a small portion of the fleet in Tartus on the Mediterranian Sea.

So Russia doesn't really need Sukhumi port in Abkhazia. Sukhumi is a small, underdeveloped port lacking the necessary infrastructure.


Thus, the problem with Ukraine is already pretty much solved - as soon as Novorosyisk is completed (which could be in as few as 2 years). Territory-wise, Russia doesn't really have that much use for Abkhazia, besides its few natural resources.

[edit on 25-8-2008 by maloy]

Interesting information from Danish tv last night:

On the Georgian/Ossetian border stands on the Ossetian side a huge portrait of Putin. On the Georgian side a huge one ...of ..George Bush.

Must be the only place in the world he's up for worshiping.

Sorry, no picture. If anyone finds, please post.

Some developments on the Caspian sea energy front :

CASPIAN BASIN: RUSSIA USES ITS GEORGIA POSITION TO ENHANCE ITS ENERGY LEVERAGE

The contest over Caspian Basin energy finds itself at a potentially decisive point. Russia’s incursion into Georgia has caused disruptions in the only export routes for oil and natural gas that are not under Moscow’s control. The Kremlin is now moving to parlay its gains in Georgia into a total monopoly over Caspian energy supplies.

The Russian-Georgian conflict caused production delays in Azerbaijan and caused stoppages in oil and gas pipelines that traverse Georgian territory. The flow of oil in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline actually came to a halt prior to the outbreak of fighting in Georgia, due to a fire in Turkey. However, the conflict hampered efforts to restore operations. Although BTC representatives said August 25 that the route had resumed "normal" functions, they indicated that it would be another week or so before holding tanks at the Ceyhan terminal were filled, according to the Turkish daily Hurriyet.

Meanwhile, a natural gas line, known as Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum experienced only a limited interruption, while another route, known as Baku-Supsa, remains suspended as a precautionary measure. In addition, rail shipments of Azerbaijani oil across Georgia have been halted because an explosion damaged a bridge in the Kaspi district. Azerbaijani officials say rail deliveries may resume in late September.

Although energy flows are slowly returning to normal, many oil analysts say that Russia’s blitz on Georgia, as well as the lingering presence of Russian troops in the country, has sown doubts about the reliability of energy corridors across Georgia. As a result, planned expansions of the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline network, including a trans-Caspian Sea route (TCP), seem to have hit a wall.

Striving to take maximum advantage of the sudden turn of events in the Caucasus, Moscow is pressing the Caspian Basin’s three leading oil & gas producers -- Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan -- to up their export volumes via Russia. The Kremlin’s strategic position in Georgia gives Moscow added leverage in its new energy discussions with Baku, Ashgabat and Astana.

www.eurasianet.org...

US sends an extra $1 Billion aid to Georgia. That's a lot of money...

[---]President Bush said Wednesday the U.S. will send an extra $1 billion to Georgia to help the pro-Western former Soviet republic[---]

Hearing begun in The Hague

A hearing has begun at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Georgia accuses Russia of interv... interv... full-scale invasion and ethnic cleansing against the Georgian people. Russia on the other hand, says they're going to file a lawsuit against Georgia, for genocide of the South Ossetian people.


Georgia-Russia conflict being heard in The Hague


When Saddam used chemical weapons against the Kurds in Iraq, no one intervened. I know that cluster bombs are not chemical weapons, but... I do see some similarities here. "Saddam was killing his own people", etc. Are they really going to let Saakashvili get away with it? Is Saakashvili telling the truth and all the others are lying? I guess it's for the court to decide. Let's wait and see the results from The Hague. I bet that no matter the outcome, someone will not be happy about the decision of the court.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
When Saddam used chemical weapons against the Kurds in Iraq, no one intervened. I know that cluster bombs are not chemical weapons, but... I do see some similarities here.

Well the majority of Georgian offense relied on Grad launchers and artillery - neither being illegal as far as any international courts are concerned. The cluster bomb usage could on the other hand be used to build a case against Georgia, but I have doubts about this "lawsuit" going anywhere. The West will find a way to keep it from international courts.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
Are they really going to let Saakashvili get away with it?

I believe they already did.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
Is Saakashvili telling the truth and all the others are lying? I guess it's for the court to decide. Let's wait and see the results from The Hague.

I am fairly certain this isn't going to get anywhere in the Hague. And even if Russia will succeed in innitiating legal proceedings, it will turn to another clown-fest as with Milosevich, where the court will bog down in legal details (and there is never a shortage of those).

The Chief of Abkhazia's Defence Ministry intelligence department, Eduard Emin-zade, has been murdered. Abkhazia blames Georgia.


AFP: Tensions boil around Georgia rebel regions



RIA Novosti: Senior intelligence officer killed in Abkhazia

A key bridge linking Georgia and Abkhazia has been destroyed
in an explosion. Both sides are blaming each other.

Explosion Destroys Key Bridge in Georgia

An explosion has destroyed a key bridge linking Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia with the rest of the country.

Georgian officials and Abkhazian authorities blamed each other for the blast. Residents of Abkhazia's Gali district had used the bridge to reach Georgia's Zugdidi region. Georgian authorities have called the explosion an effort by separatist and Russian officials to cut off Abkhazia and another breakaway Georgian region, South Ossetia, from the rest of the country.

Blast Kills Mayor Near Abkhazia

A mayor has been killed by an explosion near Abkhazia. Georgia blames Abkhazia/Russia. Several people were apparently wounded. There's a post here.


AP

Video taken after the blast shows several people wounded on the ground and screaming villagers fleeing.

Looks like the situation may be heating up again-

Abkhaz Leader Orders Forces to Retaliate Against Georgian 'Provocations'

The leader of Georgia's pro-Russian breakaway Abkhazia region has ordered Abkhazian military forces to retaliate against what he calls all "provocations" from the Georgian side.

(VOA News)

Abkhazia critical of EU monitors

MOSCOW: The breakaway region of Abkhazia accused European Union monitors of ignoring "armed provocations" by Georgia along its boundaries and said Sunday that its retaliation would be emphatic.

The accusation was made one day after a Georgian district governor and a villager were killed by what the Georgian police said were mortars fired from the Abkhaz side in the boundary zone.

(Reuters, The Associated Press)

OSCE Failed In Georgia Warnings


BBC NEWS | Europe | OSCE 'failed' in Georgia warnings




Youtube video from BBC News here: YouTube - OSCE 'failed' in Georgia warnings

Those who still believe that Russia "invaded an innocent democratic country completely unprovoked" (i.e. Sarah Palin), should read my previous post. This is not a Russian source, this is BBC. Just saying...

its nice to see the mass media finally telling it like it is. we need more truth and less reported.

Warning shots has been fired by Russian or South Ossetian forces near Saakashvili and the Polish President's convoy!


There's a new thread here:

Shots Near Presidents Convoy (by freemindmine)

It's nice to see that the BBC is still supporting the correct (imo) version of what really happened on August 7. I'm still seeing propaganda from other sources claiming that Russia attacked "innocent" Georgia unprovoked. We've already seen that Saakashvili is lying, so why should we believe him now? And why do so many still believe everything he says?


BBC: 'Shots fired' near Georgia leader

Someone is apparently not convinced that Russia/South Ossetia fired at the President of Poland and Saakashvili's motorcade...


Georgians behind shooting near Kaczynski motorcade, Poland’s Agency of Internal Security says

26.11.2008


The Polish secret service finds striking the fact that after the first burst of automatic fire near the motorcade of the two presidents, the Georgian security agents did not react at all. ABW also pays attention to the behaviour of the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili who was reportedly rrelaxed and smiling, the document noted.

Saakashvili was "relaxed and smiling"...



Later denied by the ABW...


Poland’s ABW denies blaming Georgians in report on shooting incident

27.11.2008


ABW spokesperson Katarzyna Koniecpolska-Wroblewska said the report contained no mentioning of Georgian involvement in the shooting and added that prosecutors would be asked to investigate the leak of classified information.

However,...

Meanwhile, Minister of Interior Grzegorz Schetyna publicly said that Prime Minister Donald Tusk received the report late yesterday and confirmed the allegations made in Dziennik that the incident was a “Georgian provocation.”

Georgia are moving tanks to South Ossetian border.


There's a new thread here:

South Ossetia claims Georgia moving tanks close to border (by JanusFIN)

Belarus might recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia "after New Year".


Regnum: Belarus might recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after New Year


Belarus will get much cheaper gas from Russia.


And Russia might cut the gas supply to Ukraine on Thursday