Originally posted by Hellmutt
Let's say Russia recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In return, they might give Kosovo a seat in the UN. Will the west accept such a deal?
From reading Political Analysts' opinions in Russia (I posted them in another thread on the war), it is very unlikely that the West will recognize S
Ossetia or Abkhazia as independent, or that they will be granted a seat in the UN.
It is more likely they will get a recognized economic independence however - allowing Russia and other countries to invest in the breakaway republics.
For the mean time, economic independence will be major progress for them, and will allow them to rebuild and have a stable economy.
Before any official (UN-recognized) independence is achieved, there are still many problems to solve. One of the major ones is what to do with the
Georgian minority in the breakaway regions, and who will protect them.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
But Armenia will then recognize Nagorno Karabakh, which might trigger a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Armenia knows that it must tread cautiously - it cannot afford a war. It has been blockaded during the 90's war by Turkey, and it severly hurt its
economy. This time they would be blockaded by Georgia as well, and would not be able to receive aid from Russia. I wouldn't make any bets regarding
Armenia just yet.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
But if South Ossetia and Abkhazia gets recognized, why not NG too?
Everyone recognized the dangerous precedent. What then about Crimea and Transdniester?
Originally posted by Hellmutt
If a full scale war breaks out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, what will Russia and NATO do? The BTC pipeline will be in danger again.
Well seeing how the BTC pipelines is in Azerbaijan I am more than sure NATO/US will throw full support behind them. Russia is certain to help Armenia
- but with a geographical blockade it would be difficult.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
What will Turkey do? They're not good pals with the Armenians at all, genocide and all. Turkey has interests in protecting the BTC pipeline too, and
might side with Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Turkey won't get involved militarily - directly that is. They will support Azerbaijan anyway they can though, including supplying arms.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
What will Georgia do? Georgia is very important for Armenia.
My guess is blockade Russian shipments to Armenia - if only to spite Russia. But other than that Georgia will never take any direct action against
Armenia - that is certain.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
Armenia counts on Russia to help them in event of war.
Don't forget Iran. Ever since the Nagorno-Karabakh War Armenia has developed very good ties with Iran. They are practicaly an ally of Iran. Iran
helped them out back in the 90's, and I am certain it would do the same (especially given that Iran has its own beef with Azerbaijan). Iran's help
even without Russia should enable Armenia to stay afloat.
Originally posted by Hellmutt
With Abkhazia's independence, the Russian Navy will probably get a new base there, solving a problem with Ukraine.
It's not like Russia is in shortage of Black Sea coastline. Russia has plenty of small ports on the Black Sea - Tuapse, Sochi, Novorosyisk. The
problem is - the ports are not large enough compared to Sevastopol, and do not yet have an established infrastructure to support a large military
fleet. Also none offer as great natural harbor that Sevastopol does.
But there is major construction going on in Novorosyisk within Russia - that is where most of the fleet will be transfered - likely before 2012. Part
is already stationed there. Plus Russia is working on a deal with Syria to base a small portion of the fleet in Tartus on the Mediterranian Sea.
So Russia doesn't really need Sukhumi port in Abkhazia. Sukhumi is a small, underdeveloped port lacking the necessary infrastructure.
Thus, the problem with Ukraine is already pretty much solved - as soon as Novorosyisk is completed (which could be in as few as 2 years).
Territory-wise, Russia doesn't really have that much use for Abkhazia, besides its few natural resources.
[edit on 25-8-2008 by maloy]
