Uggg, you are spot on, the Chinese governemnt needs to be more forthright about what is going on with the global implications of this disease. On the plus side, they can impose some pretty draconian measures that most democratic socieites would not consider to try to contain it.

But if this disease is jumping from human to human its going to be a tough fight on our hands.

From China's Health Ministry:

The city of Chengdu reports on unknown disease....

Whatever the disease, the report says:
9 dead
1 discharged
10 hospitalized, of which 6 are critical

That equates to a 90% fatality rate for resolved cases!

Interesting that this is from an offical ministry in China, and not some back door website that we usually get info from.

Isn't this the dreaded 'bird flu' that everyone has been watching develop over the last year or so? Imagine how bad it is getting in the more remote areas where the news just NEVER filters out of.

Look out world if this particular strain ever evolves into airborne transmission. It could be the source of the next pandemic.

cheers

Originally posted by masqua
Isn't this the dreaded 'bird flu' that everyone has been watching develop over the last year or so? It could be the source of the next pandemic.

cheers

Yes this is H5N1 influenza although China has not sequenced the virus strain yet (99% probability).

This IS the next pandemic. It's happening now and most of the world is ignorant of it. The WHO is finally starting to make noise's now when it should have been shouting 3-4 months ago.

Read up on this thing. It's going to make the SAR's outbreak look like a ride around the park (BTW SAR's started in China also!)

I have been reading news reports here and there about this for the past year. The really frightening bits I've noted were reports from market stall owners selling chickens and saying there was nothing to worry about. Considering how much poultry and ducks are a staple in these far eastern countries, I'm sure that when H5N1 breaks out in human to human transmission, it will be killing millions there.

I have not yet read anywhere that the strain has evolved to that capability, but I know the CDC is very concerned.

The real wake up call will come when the first case of airborne transmission is reported by an organization like the CDC or the WHO.

As far as I'm aware at the moment, you actually have to drink the blood of the infected chicken.

Anyone for blood pudding?

Confirmed H5 (unknown subtype) bird flu in Russia. This was bound to be the result. Futher sequencing will most likely show one of serveral variants of H5N1. Hopefully it will not be the R-7 variant which is very deadly.

Source:

Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005
From: ProMED-mail
Source: Russian News agency Newsru.com, 22 Jul 2005 [trans. Mod NP; edited]
ttp://www.newsru.com/russia/22jul2005/gripp.html>


Over 500 birds dead of bird flu in the Novosibirsk area
-------------------------------------------------------
According to official data, more than 500 birds died in the Novosibirsk
region as result of an avian influenza outbreak. 300 birds died in the
[district] of Dovolenskiy [village of Suzdalka - Mod.NP], and 240 in the
Kupinskiy district. This was announced by the regional press service of the
Russian Emergency Situations Ministry on Fri 22 Jul 2005. No cases of the
disease have been found in the human population.

Alexander Shestopalov, the head of the zoonoses laboratory in the State
Scientific Center for Virology and Biotechnology "Vector," Novosibirsk,
confirmed to the Interfax agency that the flu virus involved in the
outbreak in avians is H5. "Further serotyping of the virus is expected
today Fri, 22 Jul 2005", he said.

Snip...

Anybody still not convinced of the pandemic?

gman

Thank you for keeping us up-to-date on this. I have contacted three individuals who have family in China and Vietnam to see if they can tell us more. I urge anyone with information in the Asia/Pac area to share.

This is a disturbing situation.

Excellent Valhall!!!!

Please U2U me if/when ANY info is posted concerning this thing.

AT this point its a good source of information

Another Asian-Avian virus? In China they use human waste as fertilizer, then the poultry, chickens and ducks, eat off the ground, then people eat the poultry. The possibilities in this scenario for viral mutations of avian viruses to human pathogenic virus is obvious.

Hey Doc, welcome. You must be awfully tired posting at so many sites...

Keep it up.

BTW I applaude you restraint in dealing with those other posters lately. Too bad they don't see what's really in the cards.
Oh yeah, I found a fellow Wisconsinite here and we agreed to keep both sites up to date with any local news of interest.

If we had all these sick chickens we were exporting all over the place, where is the outbreak in the US? Wouldn't they be getting something that is an outbreak here? How come they don't have a west nile problem?

I even like being paranoid but I have trouble seeing that one.