The Day After Tomorrow?, page 1
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reply posted on 21-7-2005 @ 11:13 AM by keybored
While it is true that the Hurricane data is hard to fathom whether or not there is an increase or decrease ( recordkeeping problem) there is a fact that can't be denied. Global warming has been on a trend for decades now and we are still trying to understand its mechanisms.
That article is a reality. To understand how the water affects weather, look at it this way...
Ocean currents are the lifeblood of the planet. The temperature changes are like a clogged artery and as a result a stroke is imminent. In the case of climate, suface temperatures that had followed the same patterns tend to shift, cold water doesn't come as far south to warm, warm water doesn't have that cooling effect from the depths hence when a tropical depression traverses the warmer water a hurricane is formed.
Less cooling of the water in our temperate zones feeds not only the number, but the strength of the hurricanes.
The falacy I feel I should point out about global warming and our efforts to reverse the change is that car manufacturers have set emmision guidelines in place to reduce the number of emmisions. Its blowing smoke up our collective rears if you stop to think about it.
1) The damage has already been done
2) Even if the manufacturers eliminated 99% of the emmisions in new cars, the old cars are still there, still being used, and that minimal 1% is only adding to the problem, albeit it at a lesser increment, but all the same, emmisions are increasing nevertheless.
If you don't believe in global warming, and I would hope it isn't a fact, then how can you explain the melting ice caps, the melting glaciers, the fact that a new island had been discovered (that was more than 10 yrs ago) in Antarctica that had previously been covered over with a glacier? Those melting caps are raising sea levels, changing the ocean temperatures and depths to which they had previously interacted.
The only sure solution is to stop emmisions ENTIRELY and let the planet stablize. Only then will we know how much damage has been done.

This obviously isn't an option with our dependence upon fossil fuels.
Alternative modes of transport and energy are all that will stop the trend.


reply posted on 21-7-2005 @ 03:05 PM by keybored

Revelations is not really a prophecy


Well, I would hope that you are right, although, something happened 2005 years ago to make us start counting days. As to metaphors, you are right, the bible is filled with them. This isn't the thread for Religion however so I won't comment on it further here.



The extremely small amount of extra heat energy penetrating downward through the soil and bedrock would be insufficient to change any volcanic activity.


Extremely small? I would have to take exception to this statement. I grew up sir in a time where you got a sunburn standing in the sun. Today you can get a burn when its overcast. Do you honestly believe that this heat isn't having any effect or isn't being absorbed? It (radiation) no longer is being prevented from entering our atmosphere due to the depletion of our magnetic field which btw is decreasing at a rate where it no longer will allow this planet to support life (as we know it) in another 2000 years.

This same "extremely small" heat is also what causes the dehydration of our soils, causes wildfires to burn out of control until we send in hundreds if not thousands of men to either build a firebreak or start a burn ahead of it so we can get it under control, and you don't think this heat is having an effect on our mantle? Where do you think all this heat that is being absorbed goes? Man it is so hot you can fry eggs on car hoods and blacktop roads and I recall a time when they used to say you can fry an egg on an engine block.
I don't know if there is even any research into the aspect we are discussing ... I don't even know that people would want to know, but it is still my opinion that yes indeed this heat is a contributing factor to vulcanism... maybe we don't recognize that fact but I am convinced it is a fact. I don't think it is so far fetched to draw that conclusion and I take it as a given.
If you can provide me with proof that this additional heat is so negligible that it has no affect I'll apologize for doubting you, however, I don't think anybody is even looking into it... probably because they take it as a given?
Please correct me if I am wrong because I sincerely hope that I am.

If anyone can prove me wrong please do so, I thirst for knowledge and would like to be as accurate as possible in my assumptions.

Please take this in the spirit in which it was meant to be given... I'm not trying to offend or challenge your beliefs but my beliefs stem from 5 decades of seeing what goes on around me. I feel pretty strongly that this heat buildup is having an effect. It's probably impossible to prove one way or the other but I am convinced that it is detrimental. I know we have records of droughts etc, but is anybody aware if there is such a thing as soil surface temperature records? Volcanic activity alone wouldn't prove anything one way or the other, we see the increase but it could be coincidental, likewise Earthquake activity.
Maybe we should just drop it. I leave that up to you all.
Thanks for your time.



reply posted on 21-7-2005 @ 03:39 PM by PDTwitch
I hate to single out one person, keyboard, but I must take issue with your entire post. What's interesting is that there is a fundamental misunderstanding of "Global Warming" which is the theory postulating that increased levels CO2 and certain other gases are causing an increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere because of the greenhouse effect.

Currently the planet going through a natural warming trend since the onset of the Holocene about 10,000 years ago. In other words the planet is thawing from the last ice age. What's interesting is that inside of this general warming trend for the last 400,000 years approximately every 1500 years we undergo a mini-ice age that lasts for 200 years or so. Polar ice caps and glaciers have been melting since the start of the Holocene, and as a consequence of their melting for the last 10,000 years sea-level has risen at a rate of around 6 to 9 inches every century.

There is no conclusive evidence that melting is occuring at a faster rate. Though studies suggest that Anarctica is actually getting colder and the ice is thickening. As far as glaciers are concerned considering there are more than 150,000 of them on the planet, and only 246 have actually been studied. And from that meager number only 79 of glaciers have mass balance data extending beyond 5 years. How can any argument be made for a trend of increasing glacial melting from such a lack of data? For the record the most renowned glacier, Kilimanjaro, is melting due to anthropogenic influence, not global warming, but deforestation.


The only sure solution is to stop emmisions ENTIRELY and let the planet stablize. Only then will we know how much damage has been done.

Let the planet stabilize, don't insinuate that there is some balance of nature. Our environment and indeed our ENTIRE PLANET is in a constant state of flux and it never has been and never will be in balance. Whatever affects we have on the planet are miniscule and ultimately insignificant to the power of the natural forces.

Now since this thread was initially about the threat of increased extreme weather in general and hurricanes in particular the records are not ambiguous.
www.nhc.noaa.gov... There were more hurricanes of greater intensity earlier in the 20th century than we've seen in more recent decades. We could be witnessing a return to conditions that were conducive to the hurricane patterns we saw back in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. Certainly, there is no drastic increase in extreme weather shown by the evidence. This unfortunately common misconception is due to a variety of factors. Chief among them is unscrupulous individuals using increased media coverage of natural disasters to make false connections between flawed, unproven theories and the decreased number of hurricanes compared with the first half of the 20th century.


www.newscientist.com...
www.usatoday.com...
www.ingentaconnect.com...

[edit on 21-7-2005 by PDTwitch]


reply posted on 21-7-2005 @ 04:27 PM by keybored
PDTwitch, thank you for the clarification. I can appreciate the time you took to respond to my post and correcting my assumptions.

When I said we neeed to let the planet stabilize, I was implying stabilization from our meddling.

What you are saying is that we have had a minimal affect on our climate and yet if this is the case, then why are we in such a pickle?
It would seem to me that we have had a greater impact than you state for the very reason that even scientists are looking into it. If this is a normal flux of the planet, then how is it that we have had ozone holes?
I have to ask if you got your info from a single source?
I'm not trying to be contentious on this issue, merely curious as to what is going on when scientists can't agree, industry continues to pump it out, emmision guidlines are being laid down, and yet we are only having a negligible effect?
Please explain since I see the patterns changing right in front of my eyes. When I was growing up in Canada, we saw numerous snow storms, maybe an inch or two. occasionally a blizzard would dump feet, but rarely... Now I see they drop feet at a time. There is more moisture in the atmosphere and that can only be from warming. You are saying this is a normal cycle of our planet? How could there be a record of how much snowfall fell when it would in turn melt? I am speaking locally of course and not of extreme Northern/Southern hemispheres where the snow stayed year round and we could measure how much fell in that particular winter.

I am still convinced that we (industrial revolution) have had a detrimental effet to our climate and like I said, if not, then why all the hoopla among the scientific community regarding Kyoto in the first place.
Thanks again for posting. ... in all honesty, if scientists can't agree on it then why should we even bother?
Also, this flux you speak of doesn't take into account the weakening magnetic field so this trend is by no means normal... how can we draw upon history to predict a situation unique to our day?
... I feel so dumb sometimes
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