posted on Jul, 19 2005 @ 03:22 PM
An interesting thought, and certainly a case where the MAD equalizer could be argued for.
If such a policy were to be instituted, one might want to wait until Taiwan's political situation is a little more stable. The country is still a
fledgling as far as democracies are concerned. It had the longest period of martial law in modern history, from 1947 to 1987, and still has a very
corrupt, mafia-influenced government (although this has improved substantially since the KMT lost power). Putting nuclear capability in the hands of
Taiwan could embolden its leadership to stir up trouble with the mainland, and there is no guarantee that the CCP kingpins wouldn't be stubborn
enough to pursue an invasion regardless of a nuclear threat, if they are provoked. Pride and face is an infinitely important factor in Chinese
thinking, and its influence is not something to be ignored.
Furthermore, the CCP has many spies active in Taiwan. It would be EXTREMELY difficult for Taiwan to keep a nuclear arms program under wraps,
particularly considering the specialist materials that are involved in nuclear weapons production. If the CCP ever got wind of such a program, that
may very well prompt them to attack immediately. If the U.S. got involved, things could get real ugly, real quick.
One thing to ponder, unlikely as it may be, is that the Taiwanese government is smarter than we give them credit for and they already have developed
the bomb in secret. All the political posturing and keeping the CCP calm could all just be a clever ruse to a) ensure continued military support from
the U.S., and b) ensure continued economic interaction with the mainland. An ever-growing portion of Taiwan's economy depends on business with or on
I never want to see Taiwan fall under the hands of the CCP dictatorship, but the bomb may not be the best answer. Personally I'd love to see the U.S.
put a concerted, long-term intelligence effort into collapsing the CCP's power from within.
...but this time do it right.
[edit on 2005-7-19 by wecomeinpeace]