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Originally posted by Roy Robinson Stewart
50/50 Huh ??
So if anyone bombs the London underground then there is a 50/50 chance that there will be an anti terrorist exercise aimed at exactly the same time and place as the bombing?
That's the same as saying that no matter where you are on the London Underground, at any time there is a 50/50 chance of there being an anti terrorist exercise going on involving your exact location?
Which is the same as saying that 50% of the London underground is, at any given moment, the subject of an anti terrorist exercise.
I think not.
Congratulations for courage in the face of logical adversity
Here's another bit of stats that will show the fallacy of this reasoning. What are the chances I was wearing brown shoes at the same minute the bombs went off:
Well lets take this over a 10 year period (no reason at all to do this, but the original calculation did).
I have not worn brown shoes in the last 10 years and I only bought them from the Moorgate (these coincidences are everywhere if you look) M&S the day before. I put them on at 8 that morning and therefore had been wearing them for 60 minutes out of the last 5,256,000 minutes - so there is a 1 in 87600 "chance" I would have been wearing them at 9:00AM on the morning. And the "chance" that the bombs went off at 9:00AM (during that minute) are just 1 in 5,256,000 therefore the "chances" that I was wearing my brown shoes at the same minute as the bombings was:
1 in 460425600000
Well those odds are very unlikely, so I can't have been wearing my brown shoes. But I was. Obviously this calculation is pure nonsense, but so is the one to calculate the chances of there being a emergency traiuning drill at the same time as a real attack.
Originally posted by dom
The chances of there being a simulated exercise of an attack on the underground is probably about 50%.
Originally posted by dom
groups.yahoo.com...
Oh, and just in case you were wondering about the odds let's have a look at the maths between this stupid probability of coincidence calculation...
The probability calculated on this page is the probabiliy of 3 bombs exploding at 8:50AM on the 7th July at the same time as a drill involving 3 bombs at the exact same stations in the same hour on the same day. The problem is that the probability of there being a bomb attack at 8:50AM on 7th July involving those 3 stations is indeed pretty low. In fact, it's about 6x10^-21. BUT it happened. So actually the probability of this event is now 1. Because we know that the event occured.
Anyway, the other big number has a few assumptions involved... The probability of a drill involving an LU station is listed as 817K:1 against for any single hour, which assumes that only 10 drills have occured in the last 5 years. Well we already know from the guy in this case that he'd had a number of scenarios for that mornings walkthrough, he probably does this once a week at least, there may be 50 companies doing the same thing. Which means 62500 drills in 5 years, not 10!
So the probability of the two occuring together is currently 1.0.
So basically, the whole argument is bollocks.
I thank you.
www.atsnn.com...
BRITISH police are considering the possibility that the four key suspects in last week's London attacks may have been tricked into setting off their bombs, a British newspaper has reported.
"We do not have hard evidence that the men were suicide bombers," a Scotland Yard spokesman told The Sunday Telegraph.
"It is possible that they did not intend to die."
Also no one has addressed my point about how exactly these 4 very religious men were duped into carrying bombs on to the London underground. Now what are the odds against that happening?!?
Originally posted by dh
Very religious people, huh?, that's what you do when you're very religious is it? Blow people up?
Originally posted by dh
Aahh, FatherLukeDuke. It's always nice to see masters of denial get on the threads.
I haave quoted that statistical pobability myself, but it can obviously lead to arguments based on statistical probabilities, which is a diversionist disinfo technique.
Very religious people, huh?, that's what you do when you're very religious is it? Blow people up?
Obvious anyway, to anyone who isn't an idiot or a manipulator