POLITICS: China says "prepared to use Nukes against US"

Originally posted by RebelSaint
Additionally, allowing China to take Taiwan by force would automatically make the 21st century a Chinese century, as the ability for the US to promote and defend global security would crumble. Any century that has a non-free government at the apex of the international order will not be a century of peace, economic development and the expansion of liberty."

Im sorry but I reject that argument. Its not an anti-American stance on my behalf but just the way I see it. What security did American near-hegemony of the last 50 years give thw World? The Cold War with a nuclear arms race that still has ramafications to this day (this thread). The War on Communism (aka Cold War) gave us Vietnam. The right to self determination was raped by both sides. The start of the 21st century has seen America invade two nations under no international legality and for dubious reasons. All this while it was America who wielded the most dominance in the second half of the 20th century. So wouldnt the same logic imply that a "free government" at the apex of international order didnt change a thing? The World was ravaged post-WW2 and its problems still linger.

Originally posted by RebelSaint
The importance of Taiwan to U.S. economic and security interests in the global political economy are paramount to that of securing Israel's existence or keeping Germany out of the hands of the U.S.S.R. Both the US and Chinese economies are intertwined so heavily that a collapse from one would mean dramatic downturn of the other if not complete domino collapse as well.

*checks around for the Delorian* The USSR? I think the document's age is only surpassed by its dogmatic Cold War "domino" mindset. The domino effect is not a credible projection and Iraq proves it. Where is the domino effect of the Americanisation of Iraq? Why hasnt Iran fallen into America's hands? The domino effect was a pretext for fighting the Soviets tooth and nail.

If Taiwan was invaded by the Chinese and the Americans did nothing the sun would rise the day after. The American economy would only jitter at the prospect of American intervention. Communism is ideologically dead - no country will ever revert to communism baring a popular uprising in favour of Marxism. Taiwan falling into the hands of the PRC will not spread communism. Taiwan falling into the hands of the PRC will not hurt America militarily or strategically. It has numerous bases in that theatre, Okinawa, South Korea, Afghanisan, Uzbekistan, Diego Garcia to name a few.

Did the world crumble and fall apart when Hong Kong reverted from British rule to Chinese? That was a major financial capital of the World. Now it faces problems but the World didnt miss a beat. The same fate has been offered to Taiwan and the effects would be the same. No problem to the West unless we made it our problem.

The rest of your post I agree with

[edit on 15/7/05 by subz]

Both the US and China would need promise from Wal*Mart to go to War.

To me it sounds like China is actually stating that they are willing to suffer an all out nuclear strike

"We ... will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese," the general was quoted as saying.

Link

what i dont get is when the general says "all the cities east of xian" does he think that we will stop. If they decide to nuke us they better be prepared for ALL of their cities' destruction.

truttseeker, it's called Russia/the other Nations which hold America bases are over that direction, if I remember correctly. Not going to kill their own now are they?

"What in the world are you talking about? China hasn't "purchased" any American debt. If you are referring to the trade deficit with China you are very seriously wrong. What the trade deficit means is that the U.S. buys 150 Billion dollars a year more goods from China than we sell goods to them it has nothing to do with debt.

If the U.S. suddenly stopped buying Chinese goods the economy of China, not the U.S. would suffer. All it would mean to the U.S. is that we would have to pay a higher price for the goods when we bought them from someone else"


Allow me to retort;
The United States department of Treasury sells roughly 300 Billion in Tbills every year. These are Debt securities, which the american taxpayer must pay interest on. China Buys roughly 65% of these T bills every year, and recieves Billions of dollars in Interest payment on them Every month.
When you read about a 450 billion dollar deficit for the year, exactly where does the money come to make up that difference? From Tbills the treasury sells to finance the debt.

Trade Surplus is an entirely separate issue. China and India have signed the largest trade treaty in Asian History. CHina is signing with Chile, Peru, Panama, Europe, Veitnam, Africa massive trade treaties. In very few years the United States will need China far more than CHina needs the United States


Any chinese 8th grader understands this system of debt financing, this underscores my point. American Education system is falling apart. We dont even teach ourselves how the world works.

Yes, that is true.

China currently has the US treasury grasped firmly by the short hairs, a fact few Americans seem aware of.

Precisely because of Mutually Assured Destruction, talk of nuclear war between the two nations is, in my book, ridiculous. For one thing, the Chinese are far too pragmatic to allow themselves to engage in what would be a fatal fight just as they are about to become 'A number 1'.

There was a piece on the Channel 4 News in the UK last night talking about the sale of Rover cars to China. The reporter started off by saying that the Chinese negotiators had got all they asked for at knock down prices, whereas the British contingent had come away with virtually nothing. The reporter said the Chinese had played a 'blinder'. Apparently full scale Rover car production can begin within 12 months.

The story then went on to say how two different companies were competing to actually build the new cars but that these two companies were owned by the state, which seemed to be causing some confusion.
The story then continued by giving some examples of overseas Chinese activities - IBM, the UNOCAL bid, various energy contracts in South and Central America and numerous emerging involvements in Africa.

The phrase used to describe China's current foreign economic policies was "Command And Control Capitalism".

For some reason, this phrase caused a question to form in my mind. Which is the most likely scenario?

a) Death via terrorist.
b) My job goes to China within next 10 years.

The answer I opted for was b). The idea of economic destitution seems much more likely and scares me more than terrorist action, but the vast majority of us are now so wrapped up in this thing that we don't see a very real threat. It's as though in the front garden the older brother is bullying someone the family thinks is gonna get them, while out the back the slick operator is buying the PC and DVD player for next to nothing, using methods we developed and think we are best at utilising!!!!

My plea to the British government -

Give us a medium scale, specialised, high-tech product development and manufacturing industry.
Sort out the education system.
Teach kids about Eastern culture.
Teach kids to speak Chinese.

My plea to the American government -

Your Dollars help keep me living in the manner I am accustomed to, so please STOP SPENDING MONEY ON WAR. We can't afford it. Where is the long term return??????

I see hard choices, hard realisations and hard times ahead.

This is why Westerners are clamouring for the World's known Oil reserves in the Middle East. When we control these we can pull the plug on China if we want. The Americans did the exact same thing to Japan before they entered WW2. The difference being that China has major oil alternatives in place with natural gas and vast amounts of hydro-power. So any limitation to their oil supply will not cripple them, it will just hinder them. It doesnt necessarily mean it wont come to a shooting war though.

We could always just change the rule books as well. All that trillions of dollars China holds is as ethereal as pure Communism. If we say "we're losing big style, so we're changing the rules, we're not going to honour our debts, we're moving to a new monetary standard , ones that relies solely on gold reserves and not mystical tbills or any other usury construct. We could effectively start from scratch if we wanted to. What material compulsion is there to pay a theoretical debt?

Faced with utter destitution on one hand, and unprecedented financial upheaval with aims to starting afresh on the other hand. I think we will choose the uncertainty of completely revising our capitalism every time.

Basically we'll cheat.

If the US even dreams of attacking China, they will lose. Most of the troops right now are busy in most other parts of the world. (Afganistan, Iraq, Iran, etc). So if the US decided to attack China they would only have a max of 100,000 more troops to send there. And that is the MAX. China's military is in the millions. Also China's Military is par with the United states as well.

China is also rumoured to become the next super power of the world after the US falls. Why? Because not only of the extreme population, but because of the technological advances, GDP, and the way the Chinese are brought up through their childhood. (Schooling, discipline, moral standards). These far surpass the standards of the US or any other country if I might add.

China and Japan have some of the worlds smartest minds. And as the saying goes. Knowledge is power.

Edit : Just to note. The population of China, India, and Japan combined is about 2.5 BILLION people. This is 38.5% of the worlds population! In 3 contries!!

[edit on 7-16-2005 by CPYKOmega]

Originally posted by subz
Faced with utter destitution on one hand, and unprecedented financial upheaval with aims to starting afresh on the other hand. I think we will choose the uncertainty of completely revising our capitalism every time.

Basically we'll cheat.

Won't this run the risk of rubbing the Chinese up the wrong way? Also, !'The Economist' says that the Chinese have $600 Billion odd of foreign currency reserves and the government is giving out virtually interest free loans. Even if we do control the Middle Eastern reserves, can this impede the Chinese economic juggernaut.

I must admit, now that I feel the pound in my pocket threatened, over the long time, I am genuinely concerned.

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Won't this run the risk of rubbing the Chinese up the wrong way? Also, !'The Economist' says that the Chinese have $600 Billion odd of foreign currency reserves and the government is giving out virtually interest free loans. Even if we do control the Middle Eastern reserves, can this impede the Chinese economic juggernaut.

I must admit, now that I feel the pound in my pocket threatened, over the long time, I am genuinely concerned.

Do we have a choice? We're heading to hell in a hand basket, and we dont seem to be doing anything more than securing oil reserves.

Nuclear weapons on the other hand are a great leveler. Of course pulling the rug out from under the financial infrastructure of the World because we're losing our own game will rub the Chinese up the wrong way. But what could they do militarily when both sides have declared they will retaliate with nuclear weapons?

China had the right to change from a capitalist republic to a communist republic. I think we can devise a new economic idealogy and just refuse to honour our old debts. We'll still have material and technology but the debt we've run up and the export disparity with China can all be wiped out if we chose not to pay it.

China cannot come and foreclose the Western hemisphere because we refuse to honour or debts. We can simply make Chinese imports illegal as a matter of national security and the Chinese cannot do anything unless they want to be nuked.

I believe you are correct Subz. We will cheat, and as you say, what choice will we have. It will make for very interesting times. I wish I knew more about economics!!!!

One thing though, you talk about China's inability to physically strike back when we change the rules, but they surely will have more than a military option open to them. Have we seen a proper, large scale economic conflict break out on Earth before? Does anyone know how it's gonna shape up?

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
One thing though, you talk about China's inability to physically strike back when we change the rules, but they surely will have more than a military option open to them. Have we seen a proper, large scale economic conflict break out on Earth before? Does anyone know how it's gonna shape up?

Yeah the last one was the Cold War. Between Communism and Capitalism. We refused to trade with communist countries and let them collapse and resort to espionage to gain technological advancements. Why wouldnt a true capitalist country sell technological secrets to communist states? Money is the be all and end all of true capitalism yet we with held selling them anything remotely valuable.

Our economic front of the Cold War is what brought down the USSR. They collapsed from within because they were broke and decrepit. There was no military option the communists could of used in an era of nuclear weapons.

Their options were a) start a shooting war (we all lose), b) adapt their communist economies to keep afloat (China's option and one the Russians adopted too late) or c) keep economically dogmatic to communism (corruption makes this impossible).

MAD will hold up when it is between nation states. Another Cold War between the Chinese and the West is likely (arguably already started) and both sides only viable strategies are economic in nature.

How do you stop a country from simply re-writing the rule books and not honouring debt when your hands are tied militarily?

[edit on 16/7/05 by subz]

MAD will restrict a military response - I concur.

What happens if the US rewrites the economic rule book, but other countries do not follow suit. Would Europe play ball do you think?

Also, you mention the Cold War. Do you think there is a risk of the US bankrupting itself with excess military spending?

By the way, have you any Macro-Economic training? I am not looking for an excuse to pick holes in any argument you supply, I am just interested.

Im going to attempt to answer my own question here (hey im bored , no offence intended KhieuSamphan, I wrote this before you replied)

Our next economic idealogy should be comprised of a bicameral approach to our economy.

At the domestic level we could keep the current system but if we wanted to be morally appropriate we should dump usury.

At the international level we should dust off and reinstate barter. We should export our wares and only accept wares in return. That way we could never be ripped off if a country consumes and then refuses to pay. It would eliminate export/import deficits. The United States is rich in natural resources so the country with all the bombs would be up for this approach if push came to shove and the current international economic paradigm went tits up.

Just a thought, would be pretty cool.

Edit: KhieuSamphan, Ive only got 2 years of economics education from highschool in Australia. Found it incredibly interesting and vague a the same time. Do a bit of reading and theorizing at a personal level just because thats the way I am

[edit on 16/7/05 by subz]

Sounds like a nice idea Subz. I just hope we ain't too late!

Originally posted by subz
The United States is rich in natural resources...

Unfortunately, us British do not have a wealth of raw materials to sell, so unless we reform our education system amongst other things we are going to be left solely with a service industry and not much else, as far as I can see.

But subz how are the rich going to buy their kids bentley's and have their money make money if we drop usury? Think of all those poor banking barons you would be forcing to *gasp* work for a living!!! This cannot and will not be allowed to happen. Remember the true golden rule he who has the gold makes the rules.

While your solution is elegant, workable, and ultimatelly probably the only way to save us from a conventional world war 3 I don't see it happening without the average joe pierre and heinz in europe and america forcing the elite at gun point to do so. But bear in mind these people for all intents and purposes own the majority of the western world and have gotten very used to pulling national strings for their corporate fundraisers (us normal people call those wars which are insanelly profitable for banks and defense contractors while detrimental almost 100% of the time to the average citizen). I am still voting you for a WATS for your elegant solution though subz keep up the good work

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
What happens if the US rewrites the economic rule book, but other countries do not follow suit. Would Europe play ball do you think?

I dont know but if previous historic tendencies are anything to go by, then yes I think they would. Europeans (speaking as a Brit myself), are generally socialistic in their views. If the Europeans see an economic system which removes one of capitalism's biggest weapons (debt) they would probably jump at it.

Their options are:

a) adopt America's new system of international barter
Could fuel imperialism between non-nuclear states. Those with nukes (France and Britain) would likely divide up Europe eventually.

b) adhere to the current system (i.e. trade with China) and try not to be sucked into the sino-economic-juggernaut.

c) devise their own system and probably devolve into a feudalistic European-only economy. Got EU?

Its a toss up between a) and c) in my mind. I think America's technological superiority and the need for such technology will push us into a). Which is not to say that a) and c) are mutually exclusive. Barter knows no idealogical differences.

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Also, you mention the Cold War. Do you think there is a risk of the US bankrupting itself with excess military spending?

No more than it currently does. Its currently got enough nuclear weapons to destroy the World a few times over so they're pretty much sound as a pound. They probably would run the risk of bankrupting themselves with a missile shield but its not as if its crucial when MAD remains.

Aims to advance laser technology would be where I think the American's would pump their internal capital if they switched economic paradigms.

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Sounds like a nice idea Subz. I just hope we ain't too late!

Time doesnt factor into it when you just refuse to accept the existing rules Lets take our ball and go home, the street lights are coming on.

Originally posted by KhieuSamphan
Unfortunately, us British do not have a wealth of raw materials to sell, so unless we reform our education system amongst other things we are going to be left solely with a service industry and not much else, as far as I can see.

Yeah we could probably expect a reduction in our artificially high standard of living. What really does this little island really have to justify our highly wealthy status? Not much that I can see. Our empire is gone and if we really want prop up our current standard of living we better draw up plans for invading all non-French and non-nuclear territory in Europe.

Originally posted by subz
Our empire is gone and if we really want prop up our current standard of living we better draw up plans for invading all non-French and non-nuclear territory in Europe.

Gulp!!! Sounds like fun.
Surely we can adapt to fit in with Chinese economic hegemony. I know it will be difficult but if we can reform ourselves into a high tech, specialised goods producing country, we could maybe carve ourselves a little niche. Or maybe we are just screwed. I'm emigrating...any suggestions?