Tracking Hurricane Emily

At 11am EDT the winds of Emily were up to 145mph with a pressure of 943mb. At 11:45 the NHC issued an update to the advisory because hurricane hunters had found a 940mb low and sustained winds of 150mph. The next advisory is due out at 2pm EDT.

Oh mi amigos! My poor little Yucatan Peninsula! CARLOS! BE SAFE!

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www.nhc.noaa.gov...
I still think once it hits the Yucatan it will encounter a NE deflection that will take it through the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba and it's gonna head right for Galveston. JERRY! BE SAFE!

[edit on 7-16-2005 by Valhall]


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[edit on 19-7-2005 by pantha]

The 2pm advisory is now. Emily now has sustained winds of 155mph and a central pressure of 937mb (27.66"). This storm is extremely dangerous and may reach category 5 strength. This is becoming too similar to Gilbert. It is basically taking the same path except this storm managed to miss Jamaica. Emily is much stronger at this point than Gilbert was because it missed the island. Next up... Cozumel

11pm Advisory is out.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...
Winds are still at 155 and the pressure is at 930.
As far as it becoming a cat 5....

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

That's typical with storms this strong.
It's not forcasted to become a cat 5 and stay, but we'll have to definately watch it.


Latest track:

Of course, only 156 is needed for Cat 5, so for all intents and purposes, at the time, it was a Cat 5 as far as threat....

Anyhoo, now it's much weaker, but still nasty, and will eventually restrengthen most likely....

From NOAA (8am EDT Monday Advisory)

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM CANCUN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 8 AM
EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9
WEST JUST NORTHWEST OF TIZIMIN OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY
IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN EMILY
MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

[edit on 18-7-2005 by Gazrok]

Emily is approaching Mexico once again. As of 2pm EDT advisory Emily has regained category 2 status with sustained winds of 100mph. BUT..... and this is a huge but... the central pressure has fallen to 959 mb or 28.31". Expect a dramatic increase in wind speeds over the next 6 hours provided something unusual doesn't happen to the storm. Without any further reduction in pressure I'd expect the wind speeds to increase to 125mph.

Note: The 19:33z vortex message the hurricane hunters are reporting a central pressure of 956mb.

Here is the latest IR satellite image of Emily. She looks VERY good. There is no reason to believe significant intensification before landfall won't happen.



www.climatepatrol.com...

So far, just rain and a little wind off and on in Corpus. We're under a coastal flood warning, flood watch and tornado watch. As of 5:12pm CDT. Emily is now a cat 3.

Edit to change warnings to watches.

[edit on 7/19/2005 by darkelf]

As of 7pm EDT Emily is rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are up to 125mph and the pressure is falling fast to 945 mb or 27.90" . I think there is a good chance of this reaching cat 4 strength in the next 2 to 4 hours. I'm guessing 135+ mph at the 11pm EDT advisory.

Number 6 Tropical Depression forming near Florida. It's nothing yet, but it's projected track is one of those erratic ones expeected to be making a loop 5 days out.

Gosh it's going to be one heck of a ride this summer.