Tropical Weather Watch 2005

It made it faster than I expected!!!

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

Btw, this will be named Ophelia when it becomes a tropical storm.

[edit on 9-6-2005 by worldwatcher]

HURRICANE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH NATE

This message appears on NOAA:
weather.noaa.gov.../marine/offshore/am/amz080.txt

Does this means there another hurricane is expected?

well we still have Hurricane Maria in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Nate seems to be trying to get it's act together, It does look like the shear is starting to ease up over Nate and it probably will intensify into a CAT 1 hurricane soon.

Tropical Depression 16 is a whole nother issue, not sure what will become of it or it's path, shear is forecasted to lessen, so it could become stronger but being that it is almost stationary at this time, it's hard to see where it will go. It could turn and follow a path similar to Nate or actually have a Florida landfall, too early to determine.

But satellite imagery over the past few hours shows a blow up of cloud coverage over TD 16

Hurricane Maria downgraded to Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm MARIA Public Advisory

TS Nate is strengthening, mainly Bermuda should be affected.
TD 16 Advisory
TD 16 slightly stronger and drifting North-NorthWestward

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

Posted this pic in other thread too, but might as well here...
Updated of TD16, Nate and Maria

TD#16 is now Tropical Storm Ophelia
Tropical Storm OPHELIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071144
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Right now all guesses as to Ophelia are good, the storm could make landfall in North Florida, the Carolinas or even circle back and hit south florida.

imbalance's pic updated
TS Ophelia, Hurricane Nate, and Hurricane Maria

Ophilia is another NHC quality hurricane. With a pressure of 990 mb, bad radar and satellite signature and a maximum sustained wind of 40mph reported by a buoy around the eye wall we are looking at a tropical storm. A moderate one at best. This storm has nothing in common with a hurricane. One can't trust the NHC these days.

We now have HURRICANE Phillipe and Tropical Storm Rita... this season continues to amaze me

Hurricane PHILIPPE Public Advisory

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES... 630 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

and

Tropical Storm RITA Public Advisory

updates on Rita in this thread:

Tropical Storm Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )


[edit on 9-18-2005 by worldwatcher]

I'm just saying that on the friday before Kitraina hit us that we all thought it was going to flordia and then by friday afternoon it was comming to us even though we were much so outside the cone of error. The only driving force that keeps Rita moving west and not northward is that HighPreassure system and preasure systems are unstable and move rapidly following various other weather paterns> I mean all a hurricane is is a massive low preassure system. you need to watch the high right now and not the hurricane!

I hate to wish a hurricane on someone else, but you guys are THE LAST city on earth that needs another 'cane. I bet it does hit Texas, which of course is going to completely mess with oil/gas...............

I just captured this from AccuWeather.com's Tropical Update...they're looking at this strong wave crossing the Atlantic:



Source: Accuweather Tropical Update

Wonder if this will become Stan...we're almost out of names now

[edit on 9/20/2005 by djohnsto77]

Weather Headaches Building For The Southeast

This is the same general area where Katrina and Rita formed, hopefully nothing close to those two develop there.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a special tropical disturbance statement regarding an area of low pressure 490 miles southeast of Bermuda:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This could become Vince...if so, only one more to go before we go to the Greek letters!

[edit on 10/8/2005 by djohnsto77]

The disturbance I posted about above is now officially tropical depression 22, and could become tropical storm Vince later today or tomorrow:

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

Full Advisory: National Hurricane Center

They're calling it subtropical because:

SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A
LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.

22 Discussion: National Hurricane Center

Apparently it will either become a true tropical cyclone or turn into another weather feature over the next day or two...

[edit on 10/8/2005 by djohnsto77]