posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 02:41 AM
Here is a very good example of why you should put very little faith in NHC advisories.
"THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER... FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR
TO WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z.
JOSE HAS JUST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST.
HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL
INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL."
What kind of garbage is this? The poor work that has come out of the NHC in the past couple of years continues to amaze me. They are so badly
overstating storm strengths anymore that the advisories they issue are basically meaningless. I believe it was the 2nd storm of the season that made
landfall was listed at 70mph even though there was absolutely no data to back it up. Highest gust in a buoy that the storm passed directly over
didn't even hit 40mph. Pressure didn't justify it and neither did the satellite image. There was another "tropical storm" this year where it was
upgraded to a storm even though the NHC was unable to find a closed circulation. Normal people call that a tropical wave.
If you look through the archives for last year you won't find a single sustained wind at any observation station in the U.S. to match the reported
storm strength of any landfalling hurricane last year.
This is honestly pathetic. 1001mb low and they are saying 50mph sustained winds. Want to bet you'd be lucky to find a 40mph gust?