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why not use ethanol, it is a renewable resource. and is better for the enviroment.
Originally posted by deltaboy
if oil runs out we may have to go back to ridin bikes again., imagine all those Americans who would become like Lance Armstrong wen they have to go to work and home everyday till their retirement.
or that wen oil runs out we have all electric engines, or some other source of power.
Originally posted by poet1b
Good time to dust it off, and give credit to the Op for being so accurate in the prediction.
Peak oil occurred in late 2005, and the oil prices we are seeing are the result.
Those who argue that peal oil has not occurred are drinking the oil companies cool aid.
Sure, we are not going to completely run out of oil, But, the oil sources of the future are going to be FAR, FAR, more expensive to tap.
Alternative energy sources are already starting to be developed, and lets face it, we could make huge gains in our efficiency standards.
I take a train to work, and it is far more relaxing and enjoyable than driving, the big problem is that public transportation is so limited, it takes such a long time to get anywhere, and that is a problem that could be easily solved.
What I think is best about the inevitable rise of oil costs due to the decline of the availability of easy to access oil is that this could be the beginning of the end of big oil, and that would be a great thing for humanity.
I dream of wind mill and solar mill farms, and bio-diesel farms which will not be controlled by huge international corporations.
The bad news is that food and all other costs are going to soar, and the third world nations are going to suffer the most.
There will be extreme pressure to migrate to the first world nations, and things will get worse before they get better.
The young populations of the third world are going to become a very big problem.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002. In 2001 there were 8 large scale discoveries, and in 2002 there were 3 such discoveries. In 2003 there were no large scale discoveries of oil. Given geologists' sophisticated understanding of the characteristics that would indicate a major oil find, is is highly unlikely that any area large enough to be significant has eluded attention and no amount or kind of technology will alter that. Since 1981 we have consumed oil faster than we have found it, and the gap continues to widen. Developing an area such as the Artic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska has a ten year lead time and would ultimately produce well under 1% of what the world currently consumes (IEA).
1. Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.
2. Monthly production peaks are unchanged:
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd (up 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is 84.28 mbpd (up 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (up 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 81.20 mbpd (down 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (up 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd (up 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd (down 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 7.97 mbpd (down 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
3. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: June 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 72.82 mbpd compared to 73.11 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago.
4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above) is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.