Future of the EU?

The future of the EU lies in the balance. On July 1st British PM Tony Blair took over the Presidency of the EU. As early as September there could be new elections in Germany. Will Tony Blair be able to push forward with his reform minded agenda immediately or will he have to wait for a oppostion victory in Germany. What other factors will influence the course of the British Presidency. The next six months will be crucial to the future direction of the EU.

news.bbc.co.uk...

It's going to be a very interesting 6mths for EU watchers, I'm sure.

I think a lot of the media's characterisation of how the various govs get on is usually superficial and a rather silly and pretty transparent 'playing to the public gallery' back home.
The serious stuff is usually far removed from the usual chauvinist nonsense and talk of countries being 'isolated' is, IMO, just dumb.

There is an interesting and serious discussion going on with several countries taking each of the various positions; the outcome will be very interesting and affect us all for some time to come.

Hi Sminkey just got back from vacation, you may be right about the media characterization but I think that the public bitterness between Chirac and Blair has painted each of them into a corner. Chirac is very vulnerable he can't take to many more hits and Blair has a severly reduced majority,(because of iraq but still very restricting on what he can do) he may not be as vulnerable but still if he can't get Chirac to compromise what can he do. Blair has shown at least a willingness to compromise.

The solution may come from Germany if the opposition can get rid of Schroeder, for the sake of the EU I hope they do.

Oh and congratulations on the Olympics.

[edit on 6-7-2005 by danwild6]

Originally posted by danwild6
I think that the public bitterness between Chirac and Blair has painted each of them into a corner.

- Incredible how events can just sweep away what we imagine 'reality' to be, eh?

Chirac is very vulnerable he can't take to many more hits

- In a funny way I think Chirac is liberated to say what he likes; I think he's going and he knows it.

Blair has a severly reduced majority,(because of iraq but still very restricting on what he can do) he may not be as vulnerable but still if he can't get Chirac to compromise what can he do.

- I think TB has his sights set on the Labour party continuing to do well after he leaves.
The smaller majority just makes life less easy but as he said himself, if you can't implement the bulk of your program for gov with a majority as large as 66 you really shouldn't be in that business.

Blair has shown at least a willingness to compromise.

The solution may come from Germany if the opposition can get rid of Schroeder, for the sake of the EU I hope they do.

- I think the interesting thing was the way the initial reports suggested the same old British isolation and how that swiftly changed.
Britain isn't isolated on this and we have several 'allies' (even within France and Germany).
When political change happens (as seems likely) in France and Germany soon the scene will alter.

Oh and congratulations on the Olympics

.

- It was a nice surprise; I expected Paris to get it myself.
London had the games post (both) world wars to basically help the Olympic movement out and keep the show on the road after the disaster of those wars.

It'll be nice to see what they can do as a full blown proper well planned 'hosting'.

......and after todays revolting murderous horrors here's hoping it is a secure and safe games too.

Incredible how events can just sweep away what we imagine 'reality' to be, eh?

I suppose that could be true however I don't think this terrible tragedy will change how Chirac feels about the future of the EU. I don't think he will be able to change his position on either the rebate or farm subsidies. If he does its curtains for him and he knows it. Tony can't change his position either at least not without a compromise solution(which is not only necassary for a deal but quite possibly essential to EU survival). But maybe I'm wrong and this tragedy will (hopefully) lead to some new found EU unity and goodwill and a willingness to compromise.

In a funny way I think Chirac is liberated to say what he likes; I think he's going and he knows it

His recent defeats have forced him into a corner he is trying to whip up anti-british sentiment(or at least was)to divert attention to the rebate rather than face the crucial issues concerning the EU that would not favor his position.

Well I think its time to pick up this thread again. Another European Summit has ended without agreement. This is the worst situation I have seen the EU in since I began following international politics. I'm sitting here wondering what can break this deadlock? How could this continueing stalemate affect the future viability of the EU?

news.bbc.co.uk...

Future of the EU? Think Soviet Union.

[edit on 16/1/2006 by SwearBear]

Originally posted by SwearBear
Future of the EU? Think Soviet Union.

- Care to expand on that SB?

Which personal and political freedoms do you see being curtailed (any examples)?

I can't claim any indepth knowlege of EU politics, but I'm going to chime in anyhow.

As I understand it, there is a movement afoot to invite Russia into the EU?
Some of the more eastern members aren't going to too thrilled with that I'm thinking. Poland, Hungary etc..., long memories and all that. I'm curious to find out what general opinion on this is. It would certainly effect the EU's future, both positively, given the enourmous potential economic power that Russia pocesses, and negatively with Russia's political instability
seeming to be on the rise.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

I think you'll find any idea of Russia joining the EU is in any practical sense a purely theoretical 'what if?'.

Just like the imaginings that the Ukraine might do so too.

One day maybe, possibly.

But it certainly isn't 'time-tabled' (so I think you can safely rule it out for at least 20yrs........which means 'guess away' and make up any speculative number/date you like really.
There are no plans now and none on the horizon.).

Alrighty then. I did mention I don't know squat about EU politics didn't I? Nice to have it so well proven....

Who is up for membership in the foreseeable future?


Majic's Political Easter Egg: Be the first to post the names of the three countries which joined the European Union on January 1, 1995 in this thread and send Majic a U2U with a link to your post, and you will be awarded 500 PTS points.

[edit on 7/15/2006 by Majic]

Romania and Bulgaria are candidate countries and could enter the EU as early as 2007. Croatia is also a contender but has run into some trouble as of late in regards to war criminals from the Bosnian War.

Majic's Political Easter Egg: Be the first to post the names of the three countries which joined the European Union on January 1, 1995 in this thread and send Majic a U2U with a link to your post, and you will be awarded 500 PTS points.

[edit on 7/15/2006 by Majic]

Austria, Finland, and Sweden,

Also the United States is joining the EU

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Also the United States is joining the EU

- You guys wish!

Majic's Political Easter Eggs

Originally posted by JohnDoe43
Austria, Finland, and Sweden,

Correct! They were the first nations to join after the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty.

500 PTS Points have been added to your personal membership economy.

I wish Croatia never go in EU!

Originally posted by sminkeypinkey

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Also the United States is joining the EU

- You guys wish!

Actually I don't...teehee

EU is not good...They allready fight about leading...

Lets lay off the one line posting folks.

www.abovetopsecret.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink">ABOUT ATS: Warnings for one-line or short responses
One Line or less Responses or "me too" atta-boy comments contribute nothing to the discussion.

[edit on 7-9-2006 by UK Wizard]