Pentagon fears Beijing will attack Taiwan in next two years...

Chinese dragon awakens

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.

U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.

For Pentagon officials, alarm bells have been going off for the past two years as China's military began rapidly building and buying new troop- and weapon-carrying ships and submarines.

The release of an official Chinese government report in December called the situation on the Taiwan Strait "grim" and said the country's military could "crush" Taiwan.

Earlier this year, Beijing passed an anti-secession law, a unilateral measure that upset the fragile political status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The law gives Chinese leaders a legal basis they previously did not have to conduct a military attack on Taiwan, U.S. officials said.

Asked about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, the official put it bluntly: "In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We now assess that as being very likely to be there."

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What do you think about this? Do we (United States) keep our promise with Taiwan and defend them even though we are still in Iraq and Afghanistan? OR do we now listen to other countries and sit back and watch because its "not our business"?

I am still not convinced that China will invade.

I am also unsure about how the US will respond, in my view it is a war the US cannot win. The sheer size of the Chinese military, plus the fact the weaponary owned is likely to be similar to the US', it seems fighting would cause massive damage to the US.

I was always under the impression that Taiwan was, officially, Chinese territory anway, as much as they'd like self rule.
That being the case, what would the response be if the, for instance, the native people of Hawaii decided they wanted to break away from the USA and become independent?

Taiwan is the seat of the legitimate government of China, while the mainland fell to an illegitimate communist dictatorship.

As far as I understand it, part of the deal to recognize the ChiCom gov't the U.S. passed a law making it a necessity for the U.S. military to protect Taiwan from any mainland communist attack.

[edit on 6/26/2005 by djohnsto77]

From a strategic point of view it would be optimal at the moment for
China...the US is pretty pinned down with an unstable iraq so it would mean a lot of trouble for them diverting troops and building up a defense line.

And besides the US who else would try to mess with the chinese?

Originally posted by Hangover
From a strategic point of view it would be optimal at the moment for
China...the US is pretty pinned down with an unstable iraq so it would mean a lot of trouble for them diverting troops and building up a defense line.

And besides the US who else would try to mess with the chinese?

I disagree. Again, it is a requirement of U.S. law for our military to protect Taiwan. Plus, this would be mainly a naval operation and the Navy is relatively uninvolved in Iraq at the moment.

[edit on 6/26/2005 by djohnsto77]

OR do we now listen to other countries and sit back and watch because its "not our business"?

This is a moot comparison because the situation would be different in the event that Taiwan was attacked. No one complained when the U.S. defended Kuwait, because Iraq was the aggressor. Likewise, most would support a U.S./coalition defense of Taiwan in the event of aggression from China. In the case of the conquest and pillaging...oops, I mean invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. was/is the aggressor, and that is why the world has reacted negatively.

I disagree with the portion of the article which stated:

Earlier this year, Beijing passed an anti-secession law, a unilateral measure that upset the fragile political status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The law gives Chinese leaders a legal basis they previously did not have to conduct a military attack on Taiwan, U.S. officials said.

The Chinese Communist Party passing a law giving itself the legal go-ahead to invade Taiwan is about as relevant as Zimbabwe passing a law stating that it owns the sun and the rest of the world must pay sunlight tax. At least Bush & Co. made a token application to the U.N. to declare the annexation of Iraq to be legal. The CCP's anti-secession "law" is a transparent, farcical mockery of democratic legislative process.


As far as the U.S military actually coming to Taiwan's rescue is concerned, I believe the government will honor this commitment. But, if there were major pressing conflicts elsewhere that required heavy naval support, or the U.S. were facing a major internal crisis, such as a terrorist attack to rival or surpass 9-11, then the U.S government would drop Taiwan like a hot potato. Unfortunate as it may be, this would be the only sensible thing to do to protect the United States' own interests. The U.S will not be willing to break its spine across the Taiwan Strait (to use a rather odd metaphor).

It depends on what prompts the attack.

If it is a random blow accross the streights with no provocation then the US and Japan and maybe some NATO forces would intervene,

If on the other hand Taiwan declared itself independant, against the wishes of China and the US, then the US may limit itself to a diplomatic protest.

US policy toward Taiwan is a serious concern for China. From Washington's standpoint, how to enable Taiwan to defend itself against growing Chinese military coercion remains a critical component of overall US strategy in East Asia. That strategy envisages strong alliance relationships, forward US military presence, and forestalling the rise of any major power that may challenge vital US interests. Within this broader context, the ability and resolve to help Taiwan defend itself not only fulfills key US obligations and commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act but also demonstrates the resolve and credibility of its commitments to allies and friends.

The US and Taiwan are also engaged in substantive discussions on boosting bilateral defense cooperation. All of these developments add substance to Bush's controversial statement that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to help Taiwan defend itself.

Article

If you remember the plane ramming incident before 9-11 it looked like tensions were going to escalate. My guess is that the US will start to pull out us forces in Iraq next year and will move some of its forces in other areas of the world into the asian area.

I really do not think China would attack taiwan. If China attacked Taiwan they would suffer more than they stand to gain from gaining Taiwan. If China takes Taiwan it will most likely be through economic means. China is patient, they have no reason to rush the unification.

No, no, no...

The US will not pull its forces out of Iraq as a response to tensions with China... it has them there BECAUSE of a possible conflict with China.

Read the article carefully. It states that China's achilles heel is its lack of access to energy. By assuming control of the middle east, the United States has effectively cut china off from that energy source. Also, by keeping a strong military presence in Iraq, the US can make sure that the Chinese can't cut the US off from middle eastern energy.

Think about it. If you're going to wage a war over energy... don't you want to have one hundred and fifty thousand troops standing on top of that energy? By keeping an army in Iraq, the US has made sure that it won't get caught in a situation like the one China is experiencing now.

onlyinmydreams, I totally agree with you. I did not mean a total reduction of forces in Iraq. I believe we are building 3 or 4 major military bases in Iraq. i believe we will man those and have several reactionary forces to go to any hotspots and assist the Iraqi army. And of course we will protect the oil and its pipeline. The Iraqi forces will fill in the void of forces that the US sends to other Asian military installations IMO.

Here are a couple of good articles on the worlds oil choke points.


World Oil Transit Chokepoints

Big Trouble in Little China

I have posted before that i believe the US and China are already at the first stages of war. If China attacks Taiwan I believe that they would be playing into our hands.

The below listed quote is one of the main reasons that I do not believe China will attack Taiwan. The secon listed article above talks about strategic oil reserves. China has half of the oil reserves that the US has. China will run out of oil before the US does. If China were stupid enough to attack Taiwan they would have to invade into the middle east to secure oil reserves. This goes to your point about our forces in Iraq.

Bush did approve two other weapons systems that mainland China strongly protests: eight submarines and twelve P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft (a different version of the same model involved in the recent spy plane incident with China). Also offered for sale are four older Kidd-class missile destroyers. Although these are not nearly as sophisticated as the Arleigh Burke-class, they are twice as big as any existing Taiwanese warship and much more capable than most Chinese destroyers. They would be a major addition to Taiwan's navy.

Most important, however, are the submarines. Currently, Taiwan is capable of disrupting any Chinese attempt to blockade the island. Taiwan's air force could inflict costly losses on Chinese shipping within about 1,000 km of Taiwan. These new submarines, however, would give Taiwan enhanced ability to attack Chinese shipping anywhere in East Asian waters. Taiwan could thus devastate China's vital overseas trade in the event war. China's capability to disrupt Taiwan's trade is more limited.

Article

China is not that foolish to invade, the overall price $$$$$ is just to great to invade.

First, the US would stop all trade with China and impose Trade restrictions, or the elimination of all trade.

China would loose it's largest export country, the US.

Then the UN would impose trade and monitary restrictions, and it would mean the end of China's economy.

China would then go into an economic downslide that it could not recover from.

Second, all technical and construction import know how would stop from the US and the free world.

It would be an economic failure of the most extreme for China if she invaded Tawain.

China is becoming more Democratic with each passing day.

China's population is now starting to form a middle class of people, who are growing more and more western each day, if anything I would expext a revolt against the communist leaders before I see a invasion of Tawian.

My wife is from Taiwan, she says these threats of invasion have been going on for over 30 years.
It never happens.

If China DOES invade, it will be over in less than 48 hours.
Chinese civilians are not armed.
40,000 Chinese troops would be dropped in by air at all government facilities before the Taiwanese could even react. The entire Taiwanese government would be knocked down in hours.
The Taiwanese military would not be able to get to vital areas to defend once
they got bogged down in cities trying to defend their lost government.

Why are tensions with China and Taiwan constantly in the news.?
Well the US goverment sold them $50 BILLION in weapons last year and China intercepted
a pentagon report encouraging Taiwan to use those weapons against China's largest Dam.
The US is instigating a second cold war with China...the idea is the same as with Russia, get them
to spend more on war than infrastructure, allow the system inside to collapse...ha, they are
using the same system against themselves the fools, this country is going to crap while
most of our money is spent on an illegal war, while are "allies" are increasingly making
deals with the chinese.

This would be like China selling $50 Billion in Weapons to Cuba and ecourage attacks
against nuclear power plants in the US.

China is very so slowly moving toward democracy, it may take another 30 years for the
old guard to die off and the new generation to reform their system. The problems
in China stem from the same root as the problems in America a greedy power mad
miltiary industrial complex who doesn't want to lose any power at all.
But the power is slipping bit by bit into the hands of greedy corporations who can
corrupt political agents via cash flow and status.

Remember one thing, the US didn't win the Korean war, and didn't win the Vietnam conflict.
They are mired in Iraq with no way out. A war with China would be total destruction.
And the benefit would be what? An island the size of New Jersey?
One that would is sitting duck for a final nuclear strike to make the place totaly uninhabitable for thousands of years.

Right now, and for the last many years, businesses are leaving Taiwan to mainland China by the boatload. Slave labor is no longer economically possible in Taiwan.


[edit on 27-6-2005 by Legalizer]