Preliminary plans in Scotland for quarantine in a bird flu crisis estimate 6 months - although I've read articles elsewhere that cite even longer
periods of quarantine. A news article today states:
SCOTS could be confined to their communities for more than six months and banned from attending public gatherings under an emergency plan to contain
an expected flu pandemic.
A government report, obtained by The Sunday Times, reveals that public health officials believe as many as 64,000 could be killed by a virulent strain
of influenza, which could strike Scotland “at any time”.
The death toll — 15,000 higher than the previous estimate — has been revised amid fears that the as many as 1.25m Scots would be infected by the
disease.
In the 138-page document, experts warn that it would take more than six months to develop a vaccine for the pathogen, either a mutation of the avian
flu virus — which has already claimed dozens of victims across Asia — or some other deadly strain.
During that time home curfews would be imposed on anyone infected with the virus and people would be prevented from leaving communities ravaged by the
pathogen.
Public gatherings such as football matches, pop concerts and church services could be cancelled and schools and nurseries closed. Meanwhile, everyone
in Scotland could be required to wear protective face masks and screening would be introduced at all UK ports and airports. Anyone infected would be
quarantined.
International health officials have been warning for several months that the avian flu virus circulating in Asia could cause a pandemic. Even if a
global outbreak of bird flu is avoided, experts believe it is only a matter of time before another strain causes huge loss of life.
Even when a vaccine is produced supplies could be very limited and there is no guarantee it will be effective, the government report warns.
Under what ministers regard as the most likely scenario, 14.5m people in Britain would fall ill, causing widespread loss of life and massive
disruption to society. Such an outbreak is likely to kill at least 4,500 people in Scotland, but under officials’ worst case scenario 709,000
Britons, including about 64,000 Scots, would die.
Officials say Britain could be hit by a national fuel shortage and businesses would be devastated by absenteeism, with as many as a quarter of the
workforce too sick to work. “The prime objectives are to save lives, reduce the health impact of a pandemic and minimise disruption to essential
services while maintaining business continuity and reducing the general societal disruption that is likely to ensue,” the report states.
Some experts say that no quarantine at all should be implemented, but allowing the free spread of a deadly flu would have political consequences that
I don't think most governments would accept. Considering the highly infectious nature of flu and the lack of both a vaccine and manufacturing
facilities to quickly produce vaccine, I think quarantine is probably the only option to reduce deaths until a vaccine can be distributed.
This raises some questions in my mind.
1. How many of us are prepared for a 6+ month quarantine?
2. What effect will the economic consequences of that kind of social disruption create?
3. Would people obey the quarantine?
4. Without prior planning (which seems to be the case), how will people be fed during the crisis?
5. How long will public infrastructures like electricity, gas, water, etc. continue to function before being affected by the pandemic?
6. Will the government itself continue to function during a pandemic? Without prior planning, do they have any method to replace sick workers during
the pandemic to allow critical government functions to continue (security, managing the emergency, etc)?
There are probably other questions that would arise in this scenario, but these are a few that come to mind.
What are your thoughts?
j/k. 
