Quarantine for 6 months for bird flu - are you prepared?

Preliminary plans in Scotland for quarantine in a bird flu crisis estimate 6 months - although I've read articles elsewhere that cite even longer periods of quarantine. A news article today states:

SCOTS could be confined to their communities for more than six months and banned from attending public gatherings under an emergency plan to contain an expected flu pandemic.
A government report, obtained by The Sunday Times, reveals that public health officials believe as many as 64,000 could be killed by a virulent strain of influenza, which could strike Scotland “at any time”.

The death toll — 15,000 higher than the previous estimate — has been revised amid fears that the as many as 1.25m Scots would be infected by the disease.

In the 138-page document, experts warn that it would take more than six months to develop a vaccine for the pathogen, either a mutation of the avian flu virus — which has already claimed dozens of victims across Asia — or some other deadly strain.

During that time home curfews would be imposed on anyone infected with the virus and people would be prevented from leaving communities ravaged by the pathogen.

Public gatherings such as football matches, pop concerts and church services could be cancelled and schools and nurseries closed. Meanwhile, everyone in Scotland could be required to wear protective face masks and screening would be introduced at all UK ports and airports. Anyone infected would be quarantined.

International health officials have been warning for several months that the avian flu virus circulating in Asia could cause a pandemic. Even if a global outbreak of bird flu is avoided, experts believe it is only a matter of time before another strain causes huge loss of life.

Even when a vaccine is produced supplies could be very limited and there is no guarantee it will be effective, the government report warns.

Under what ministers regard as the most likely scenario, 14.5m people in Britain would fall ill, causing widespread loss of life and massive disruption to society. Such an outbreak is likely to kill at least 4,500 people in Scotland, but under officials’ worst case scenario 709,000 Britons, including about 64,000 Scots, would die.

Officials say Britain could be hit by a national fuel shortage and businesses would be devastated by absenteeism, with as many as a quarter of the workforce too sick to work. “The prime objectives are to save lives, reduce the health impact of a pandemic and minimise disruption to essential services while maintaining business continuity and reducing the general societal disruption that is likely to ensue,” the report states.

www.timesonline.co.uk...

Some experts say that no quarantine at all should be implemented, but allowing the free spread of a deadly flu would have political consequences that I don't think most governments would accept. Considering the highly infectious nature of flu and the lack of both a vaccine and manufacturing facilities to quickly produce vaccine, I think quarantine is probably the only option to reduce deaths until a vaccine can be distributed.

This raises some questions in my mind.

1. How many of us are prepared for a 6+ month quarantine?

2. What effect will the economic consequences of that kind of social disruption create?

3. Would people obey the quarantine?

4. Without prior planning (which seems to be the case), how will people be fed during the crisis?

5. How long will public infrastructures like electricity, gas, water, etc. continue to function before being affected by the pandemic?

6. Will the government itself continue to function during a pandemic? Without prior planning, do they have any method to replace sick workers during the pandemic to allow critical government functions to continue (security, managing the emergency, etc)?

There are probably other questions that would arise in this scenario, but these are a few that come to mind.

What are your thoughts?

In a small island like Britain Bird Flu would decimate the population whatever the goverment had in its plans for isolation. They cant cope with the MSRA superbugs in the Hospitals now , so a major pandemic from flu is a death to us all.

The real question for the UK is where dioes the food come from? an isolated and quaratened world (and bird flu problem will be global) would not be able to keep us fed as all sea commerce would come to a halt!

Regarding the food problem i would ensure that i had plenty of food to see me through the crisis, buy now and stock up !! I would also buy plenty of water. I would aslo be inclined to start growing my own food as well. But i agree that the economy would grind to a halt. It would be a grim time. Anyone see the UK TV seiries Survivors ? Chilling stuff

Regarding the food problem i would ensure that i had plenty of food to see me through the crisis, buy now and stock up !! I would also buy plenty of water. I would aslo be inclined to start growing my own food as well. But i agree that the economy would grind to a halt. It would be a grim time. Anyone see the UK TV seiries Survivors ? Chilling stuff

I'm actually not as worried about practicalities like food and stuff since I do have the capability of stocking up. Unless the government decided to break into my house and take it all. If they asked me, I would probably give whatever I could. If they break in and try to take it, I'll burn it to the ground before I let them have it, and I'm not particularly worried if I get killed in the process since that kind of world wouldn't be very nice to live in anyway. I don't like the idea of government storm troopers acting like looters.

What I am worried about is that the government will break down (or worse, see it as an opportunity to go dictator), and people will be looting and committing violent acts all over. If the pandemic has a light impact, no problem. If people are dropping dead in the street and society breaks down, it could get ugly. I can preplan, but I can't defend myself against violent mobs. I've never been a gun person, and I'm not violent. Being of the female persuasion makes me a bit of a target. That pretty much leaves me dead if the world goes mad. And how would the world look when that kind of pandemic was over? Governments might be disintegrated and changed multiple times before the pandemic died out.

Reading the proposed plan that pretty much says the government isn't going to do much in the event of a pandemic doesn't reassure me. There's basically no planning for crises included - it just says 'keep people at home if they're exposed'. That's about it. What kind of a crisis plan is that?

Very reassuring. /sarcasm

The question is would we have enough warning to stock up -- I don't live in the UK but everything you mention applies here also. I have a fair stock of things for hurricanes but 6 months is a lot of stocking up.

What type of things would you stock -- just in case.

What type of things would you stock -- just in case.

I've purchased a year's supply of TP - just in case. LOL!

I also have a way to cook meals if the power goes out. A way to filter water. I only have about 2 weeks water stored, so I will up that.

I'm starting to purchase food to stock up. I know how to bake bread - even without a machine! - so I will probably store wheat. Beans and split peas. Rice. Yeast. Because my sweet tooth is bigger than my storage shelves, I've bought snacks for the stress of a quarantine. Various canned and box 'full meal' goods. Spagetti and stuff to make veggie lasagne. Stuff that's basically heat and eat that I can throw in the solar oven if the power goes out.

I have a solar lantern and oven. I have a propane stove, but I'm afraid to store fuel for it. I'm working on storing up stuff like shampoo and toothpaste and whatnot. I have a year's supply of toothbrushes - ooh, I HATE hairy teeth!

I bought stuff like tylenol, aleve, cold and flu relievers.

I bought N95 masks (not many, since I'm planning on sitting it out at home), I have goggles and gloves from some other thing I was thinking eons ago.

I'm packing my freezer with various frozen goods, and I will eat those first in case of a pandemic.

I have a way to do laundry if the power goes out, and I'm working on getting enough detergent and softner to last months.

I seriously need to up the quantity of food I have on hand, but I'm getting closer to being ready.

On the down side, the rest of my family is not overly concerned (local siblings with their own families). So, I'm thinking about stocking some extra in case they're in need.

I figure even if there's no emergency, I have to eat anyway. So I'm just buying groceries in advance so I don't have to go to the store as often!

And then there's the gestapo government 'needs' to worry about ... If I get everything I need on my impoverished budget, and the government breaks into my house to take it away - Grr!

If they ask - I'll give what I can. If they take -

i live in scothland, and it was in a few newspapers today (sunday)

i think all this serves is to breed panic

although if it happens..its good to have a plan

talk about your double edged swords

Originally posted by AWingAndASigh

And then there's the gestapo government 'needs' to worry about ... If I get everything I need on my impoverished budget, and the government breaks into my house to take it away - Grr!

If they ask - I'll give what I can. If they take -

Sounds like you have an over active paranoid gene. j/k.

thats quite the list. ive never been one to even think of stockpiling food etc, although i do live on a massive farm.

its also in the middle of nowhere.

i would worry when it happens.

Indiana has been creating their own state "influenza" plan. They plan on submitting it to the CDC for consideration.

Seems like it's going to be something that is prepared on a state by state level. I would thing the Feds would draw up some plans instead of letting each state prepare their own plans...

At least Indiana is consulting an authority..sort of anyway

BTW my list also includes most the aforementioned items along with a generator, potable water filtration system for spring and yes, I hate to say it, but I have purchased a small chicken farm...just joking there

Does ANYBODY know or have contacts in any of the effected areas or even close? Would be great to get info from sources on the ground from local newspapers that do not have a web presence.

[edit on 27-6-2005 by gman55]

Here is a website with tons of info on it but one thing it has is the 3 recipes for making your own laundry detergent, if it were me I would buy the ingredients and store them, its a very simple recipe. I have made it, it works pretty good. Though it calls for a special soap I have never heard of it does say you can use just about any kind of bar soap.
www.virtuowl.com...

you can get the Fels Naptha Soap at Lehmans site -- it is a great site with lots of cool stuff. I have had it bookmarked forever and enjoy going and looking around it from time to time. I know growing up my mom had that soap and also the Pine Tar Shampoo. I keep meaning to order the shampoo -- it was great.