reply posted on 24-6-2005 @ 11:35 AM by Off_The_Street
The first time I saw Absolute Positive Evidence That There Weren't Going to Be Any Elections Next Year was when I was in my twenties, and the usual
gang of nutters talked breathlessly about Nixon cancelling the 1968 presidential elections.
And of course they were wrong, just as you are wrong, too. There will be elections in 2008, although I don't know who the Democrats will nominate,
and I don't know who the Republicans will nominate, and I don't know who will win.
But here is what I do know.
Since it usually takes about six or seven years to implement an Amendment to the Constitution -- and since, of the five hundred or so attempts to do
so, there've only been about 28 that actually worked -- the chances of George Bush or Arnold Schwartzenegger running in 2008 is zero. The
Constitution forbids a third term and people who aren't natural born citizens from becoming President.
The best way for a Republican to win is to have the Vice President run; but we know that Cheney, because of his personality and health problems, will
not do so. Therefore, there is an outside chance that, citing health reasons, Cheney will resign, paving the way for Dubya to pick an electable
person to fill out Cheney's terms. Some "no-ways" for this job would be:
John McCain, whose ego is simply too big to share with Dubya, and who knows that his chance for President are much stronger as long as he's
seen as a quasi-outsider;
Jeb Bush, whose appointment would backfire because of his close relationship;
Bill Frist, who, despite his shooting himself in the foot with his Terri Schiavo diatribes, probably has more power and base as Senate Majority
Leader.
There are quite a few Republicans who would like the opportunity, and none of them have to have a lot of name recognition (after all, who outside of
the people of Indiana had heard of Dan Quayle when George the Elder picked him? So here are the possibilities as I see them, assuming that
Cheney does resign this year:
Chuck Hagel of Nebraska;
George Pataki of New York;
Mitt Romney of Massachusetts;
and finally, the true Dark Horse (pun intended)..
Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice
All of them have weaknesses: Hagel is seen as a bit to Green and anti-Bush, a stance that might sit well with some Democrats, but not likely to help
him win the nomination of the Republicans. Pataki is not all that popular in his home state, and Romney, while very popular in his home state, would
probably be anathema to the Christian Coalition who are increasingly powerful in the Republican Party (Romney is Mormon).
And Rice, of course, has no elected experience, although the conservative Republicans, the ones which are supposed to be the most bigoted, salivate at
the thought of running her against the Democrats (who, for obvious reasons, would rather run against Jesus than against her).
Either way, though, this is going to be a great election, with no sitting president and the field wide open.
May the best woman win!
