Let me ask you, how do you know communism is bad if you haven't tried it?

Stalin described capitalism and socialism as something that will not work. Lets say 20/30 years down the road, China surpasses America, would that mean democracy cannot compete with communism?

[edit on 18/6/05 by W4rl0rD]

Though Rand Corp is another super-secret US Black Budget reality.. it is sending out only what the US Military wants it to and I feel China is only a threat Hand to Hand and years and years below the United States Military Might Technology.

Dallas

Originally posted by Taishyou
That "enlightened dictatorship" is, however, extremely hard to get.
[edit on 17-6-2005 by Taishyou]

Lee Kuan Yew would rock for China, if they'd have him, although he's a little old now. The Chinese government frequently consults with him on important issues, though, as they respect his advice.

-koji K.

Stalin described democracy and socialism as something that will not work. Lets say 20/30 years down the road, China surpasses America, would that mean democracy cannot compete with communism?

In 30 years, China will have changed to the point where they have almost the same political and economic system as America. China's growth has only proven how superior capitalism truly is. The reform in China to a more free market is the reason for their growth, and continuing reform is the only possible way to keep that growth up.

Its late and I feel lazy, so pardon me if this has already been mentioned:

China is closing ther gap. But they are closing the gap between thier cutting edge tech, and our non classified every day tech. Its not apples to apples. They are closing the gap in tech that we have had in service for decades.

Hey, I love the Chinese, I married into them even!! But lets not give them too much credit in this regard. By the time they have rivaled the US's surrent tech, it will have long been outdated.

Its funny: I think the USA can whup thier butts in war, but I am scared as heck of my Chinese wife, she'd kick my a$$!

chinawhite where do you live? If you live in a western democracy then I rest my case.

He lives in Australia, I live in Singapore. Me and my parents have been in China for the most part of our lives, and there is more than enough freedom and justice to go around.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
chinawhite where do you live? If you live in a western democracy then I rest my case.

lol i live in australia. the land down under.

how could you rest your case? i might live here at the momment but have lived in china for almost 3 years. 1999-2002. i have lived first hand chinese life but i dont think you can say the same for yourself.

i lived with my family in fujian. right where the economic mircle is happening. extensive family ties in taiwan hong kong and indonesia. i think i know a lot more than a western newspaper educated american.

Originally posted by skippytjc
Its late and I feel lazy, so pardon me if this has already been mentioned:

China is closing ther gap. But they are closing the gap between thier cutting edge tech, and our non classified every day tech. Its not apples to apples. They are closing the gap in tech that we have had in service for decades.

Hey, I love the Chinese, I married into them even!! But lets not give them too much credit in this regard. By the time they have rivaled the US's surrent tech, it will have long been outdated.

Its funny: I think the USA can whup thier butts in war, but I am scared as heck of my Chinese wife, she'd kick my a$$!

lol chinese - westener..

as you mentioned china is closing the gap at a fast pace. do you think china cant develop these technology or get them from israel europe russia japan?

america is wont be the cutting edge any more. with chinas 30-65billion defense budget they can buy technology that america developed for a fraction of what america spent.

you always here about china buying dual-purpose equipment. americas current level of tech is currently available on the free market.

america is wont be the cutting edge any more. with chinas 30-65billion defense budget they can buy technology that america developed for a fraction of what america spent.

you always here about china buying dual-purpose equipment. americas current level of tech is currently available on the free market.

No it isn't. Obviously if it was, China wouldn't be working on a program that's similiar to the F-22 (in the stages the F-22 was about 20 years ago).

No nation has the capability to make something like the F-22. Not to mention ambitious programs like FCS. What are the Russians doing right now? They're still trying to produce more spin offs of the same old.

And while I try and stay away from conspiracies, god knows what America has out in those deserts.

America's military budget is larger then pretty much everyone elses put together. China's military budget is still nothing in comparison.

I think it's pretty obvious what the state of affairs are when you Chinese are all excited about putting out a fighter like the J-10, which is on par with last generation American planes.

Europe and Israel could only help China catch up to the levels America was at a few decades ago. They only a provide China a base to build off.

America spends about 400 billion on defence. That is what is needed to headstart ambitious programs (UAVs, stealth, hypersonic) etc. China on the other hand, is focusing on its economy as a priority, with military coming in second, just to have a firm grasp of the Asian sector's security.

The F-22 is reaching the introduction stage just like the J-10 is now. This means the Americans are 20-30 years ahead of the Chinese. Lets say 20-30 years down the line, China's economy overtakes the US. Give the F-22 or some other stealth jet to the Chinese (20-30 years later, it will become like the F-16, in terms of availability. The US by then would start the new generation of aircraft, perhaps UAVs (7th gen). Lets say the Chinese up their defense spending, and after 20 years, they won't be that far behind the US already (lets say 5 years behind). Give them another 10 years, and they will be on par. That is about 50-60 years later, given that nothing big happens.

As for ground troops, the Chinese are roughly 5-10 years behind (Type-98 vs M1A2,Chinese AK-47 vs M16A2) etc. With an increase in defense spending, China would easily surpass the US in 20 years, without any foreign help like they would get with the aircrafts sector. For the navy, Chinese are around 15 years behind. With Russian help, same thing, surpass the US in 20 years, some Russian help, but mostly indigenious.
China is in the process of building a carrier, and one of 50,000 tons might come out in around 2010. The Russians very quickly adapted and got a carrier in the 1960s, way after the indications that carriers were useful in naval battles in WWII, and adapted very quickly. China could very well do the same.

By 2040 if not earlier, the PLA will already be on par with the US military. That is what I predict. However, if history is any indication of things to come, there might be a big conflict before then (Taiwan maybe, Korea, Iran etc), and things might change tremendously. Fact is, a few decades later, China will overtake the US as the military superpower.

Originally posted by Disturbed Deliverer

america is wont be the cutting edge any more. with chinas 30-65billion defense budget they can buy technology that america developed for a fraction of what america spent.

you always here about china buying dual-purpose equipment. americas current level of tech is currently available on the free market.

No it isn't. Obviously if it was, China wouldn't be working on a program that's similiar to the F-22 (in the stages the F-22 was about 20 years ago).

No nation has the capability to make something like the F-22. Not to mention ambitious programs like FCS. What are the Russians doing right now? They're still trying to produce more spin offs of the same old.

And while I try and stay away from conspiracies, god knows what America has out in those deserts.

America's military budget is larger then pretty much everyone elses put together. China's military budget is still nothing in comparison.

I think it's pretty obvious what the state of affairs are when you Chinese are all excited about putting out a fighter like the J-10, which is on par with last generation American planes.

Europe and Israel could only help China catch up to the levels America was at a few decades ago. They only a provide China a base to build off.

yes the most part of your post i agree with you.

I ment current as in f-15 F-16. not f-22s...those f-15 and f-16 type of radars can be brought from russia france and israel.

but america is working on these "black" "stealth" projects. it just doesn't have the inpack it did in the 1990's . they are in the process of designing new radars that can detect stealth. it reminds of WW2 german subs.

submarines were extremly had to detect before the british invented the sonar(the british had there own name) and then on improved on the techniques and tech that got sonar working.


Disturbed Deliverer do you agree with this. do you agree with this

XXJ is most probably still in the wind modeling and radar reflection testing stage. I personally don't believe that the project is "cemented" yet, that SAC and CAC are both---as expected---is studying into fifth generation technologies. Afterall, if these companies are expected to survive in the future, they better.

As for avionics, they can be upgraded. Maybe the F-22's computers are still using Pentium technology, but those on the F-16 Block 60 and the Gripen seems a lot more up to date. I don't believe the avionics on the F-22 will stay as is, subsequent batches will get upgraded avionics which is the typical pattern of all maturing platforms, subsequent problems of late aside.

The US fielding a better, more mature Raptor in the decade ahead isn't the issue. The problem is the technology cycle has lengthened to the point that the Raptor and the F-35 is expected to stay in service for half a century now, which is more than enough time for a competitor to play catch up, or find an asymetrical solution. Stealth is no longer the dark technology it once was; like atomic and digital technology, it has proliferated. The basics are well understood, the phenomena duplicatable. The followers simply follow a path that has already been broken out and laid for them. Thus they can spend less, and yet learn from the pioneer's mistakes to come out with a cost efficient product, maybe better, or many times, even inferior yet acceptable.

In that period, someone would catch up, and today's superfighter is tomorrow's just average fighter. It has happened so many times before in history, the superarmy-superweapon-supernewparadigm in warfare and technology become matched and evened out, and eventually obsoleted.

My view is this, based on current patterns, the Raptor may have at least one to two versions, maybe like an FA-22A or FA-22C. Then rather than try to push the envelope of the platform with more refinements and development, you're going to try to change the rules of the game again, by obsoleting the Raptor itself (along with the JSF). This is another more megabucks spent, which benefits the industrial military complex more than continuing to refine the Raptor.

Once again you reinvent the paradigm, this time, with small stealth robotic UCAVs. While traditionalists argue that there is no substitute for the man in the wheel, there are some undeniable benefits having no man in the wheel can bring.

The aircraft is not limited by human limits of G-forces, which is 9G. There is no way you can outmaneuver a robot who has light speed digital reflexes and won't be outcold in maneuvers of over 20G.

Without a pilot, the plane can be made much smaller and slimmer, reducing radar reflection into new levels. This also means aerodynamic and performance advantages. You can create an aircraft that is a 'pure body' without any consideration for fuselage that has to house the "living quarters" for a human.

You don't worry about casualties. The robot is expendable. This is good to hear for the casualty adverse US media, audience and Congress.

No need to cloth, feed, train and pay salaries to a robot. The Pentagon saves a lot of money which will be paid to the robot makers.

And let's not forget, he's upgradable. He can be programmed with new algorhythms which will continue to enhance his performance.

Sure he may have bugs, but then so is mankind. But robotic bugs are easier to fix than the basic flaws of being human.

So by the time the PLAAF might be having its hordes of J-XX, its headache may not be Raptor-D, but the hordes of new generation robotic stealth fighters.

That is until China also gets to make its own robot fighters as well.

Good post Chinawhite.

My point is similar to what the article is trying to say.

[edit on 18/6/05 by W4rl0rD]

its not a article but a well written post by a member of china-defense

Greetings,

I have to say, I live in Northern Ireland, and I have seen may things that could be described as similar to the Tiananmen Square incident which was broadcast to the western world as the "Evils" of Red China, I would just like to ask if any one had heard of Drumcee? Or the Troubles.

Without looking at the troubles from both sides you would only see the thing your country wanted you to see, eg a very good example of that would be how there is wide spread support for the Murderous IRA in a number of East Coast towns in the US. Without knowing the whole situation I don't think that any one can comment on the Tiananmen Square incident without actually living there or witnessing the event first hand, myself included.

As for Democracy, I am not sure if it is right for the People, based on history, there has always been some sort of Communist style ruler system, King and Queens, Chiefs, Empires, some worked some didn't. Just because it worked for the US and a few other countries does not mean it will work for China, the same way a Compact car wouldn't do for me as I would require a SUV etc.

I would just like to say one thing about speaking down on a old and wise culture that has been in existance for alot longer than the US. I would just advise caution.

- Phil

As for ground troops, the Chinese are roughly 5-10 years behind (Type-98 vs M1A2,Chinese AK-47 vs M16A2) etc. With an increase in defense spending, China would easily surpass the US in 20 years

Yes, but they have only caught up to stuff that we've, once again, put out long ago. America's FCS program will be kicking in this decade, and by 2020, should be fully implemented. The technology involved here is far ahead of anything I've seen from China.

Not to mention China still needs to make huge improvements to the training and organization of their ground forces.

China has a short time span right now where they look far closer to us then we are, and that's because America is in the middle of making the switch to the next generation, while China is reaching where we were before.

If China were to wage a war within the next five years, I believe they'd have a far better chance of victory against America then they would in 10 or 15 years.

without any foreign help like they would get with the aircrafts sector. For the navy, Chinese are around 15 years behind. With Russian help, same thing, surpass the US in 20 years, some Russian help, but mostly indigenious.

I think Russian aid has reached its limits. China should be approaching a level where they on par with Russia within the next ten years. China, if it hopes to catch up with America, is going to have to do the rest on their own.

By 2040 if not earlier, the PLA will already be on par with the US military. That is what I predict. However, if history is any indication of things to come, there might be a big conflict before then (Taiwan maybe, Korea, Iran etc), and things might change tremendously. Fact is, a few decades later, China will overtake the US as the military superpower.

Even with a stronger economy, it does not guarentee military supremacy. America could adapt in its current state. America's debt and such are not caused by military spending, but our massive social programs. Most of this could easily be cut if needed. We could be spending the same amount, or more then China.

If America's threatened, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us form a super economic block with the rest of North America, which is really only going to evolve and turn it into one single nation.

Originally posted by Disturbed Deliverer
Yes, but they have only caught up to stuff that we've, once again, put out long ago. America's FCS program will be kicking in this decade, and by 2020, should be fully implemented. The technology involved here is far ahead of anything I've seen from China.

Not to mention China still needs to make huge improvements to the training and organization of their ground forces.

May I ask what the next generation might bring? How would a stealthed tank help on the ground, where visual contact is more important? China has been working on it too, try the JD-3 laser on the Type-98. Don't tell me its untested, neither has America's FCS program or any modern tanks besides the Abrams and Challenger.

For 60 years since World War II ended, we are still using the same old tank tactics, only with thicker armor, better guns, DU shells, more emphasis on mobility etc, but I believe that for the next 40-50 years at least the future of ground warfare will still be with tanks, unless something happens, like for example the time when the tank was first invented in the mid 1910s. Other than that, mostly the same. China does need better training, we can all agree on that. However, in a situation like a Taiwan war, only the elite units aka Rapid Reaction units will be used. These units will be trained to the same high standards that you guys have for your frontline units ready for deployment at a moment's notice.

I think Russian aid has reached its limits. China should be approaching a level where they on par with Russia within the next ten years. China, if it hopes to catch up with America, is going to have to do the rest on their own.

Russia could help with carriers, tactics, larger cruisers, nuclear and conventional sub and how to "quiet" them etc. Most of the PLAN now is made in China (), for example 052s, Subs (most of them are crap, but yeah), fast attack craft, etc. There are still a few Russian ships and subs, for example the Sovys and Kilos. Like I said, Russians might help a bit, then the PLAN will take over and build their own ships. The future of naval warfare might also change, with DDX etc.

If America's threatened, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us form a super economic block with the rest of North America, which is really only going to evolve and turn it into one single nation.

Lets say China is more capitalist than the Soviets. If China went isolationalist Communist like the Soviets did, there would be no doubt that the US would try to prevent us from taking over the US militarily. However, if China is heading for peace while also modernizing her army to cope with threats, it would make no sense to restart the cold war era secrecy and suspicion. From the looks of it, China is heading for the latter, while trying to retake Taiwan just for egoistical reasons, and of course military reasons since Taiwan is geographically located in between China and a few more pro-US countries in Asia (Japan,SK etc), which might host US military bases.

May I ask what the next generation might bring? How would a stealthed tank help on the ground, where visual contact is more important? China has been working on it too, try the JD-3 laser on the Type-98. Don't tell me its untested, neither has America's FCS program or any modern tanks besides the Abrams and Challenger.

The FCS program isn't about being stealthy, it's simply about doing away with the big bulky armor and creating a highly mobile force that is just as survivable, and carries more firepower. Key to it all, though, is the amount of information it will allow units to share.

The FCS program is the biggest revolution in ground warfare since the tank.

China does need better training, we can all agree on that. However, in a situation like a Taiwan war, only the elite units aka Rapid Reaction units will be used. These units will be trained to the same high standards that you guys have for your frontline units ready for deployment at a moment's notice.

You think China's Rapid Reaction forces (not that they have anything really comparable) is better then what America has? We have several forces that can reach anywhere in the world within hours. Their objective is to stop the bleeding in any situation. This has become the very backbone of the American military. It all ties back to the concept of the FCS. Highly trained, highly mobile and elite forces. There's a reason America has been cutting down on the number of troops deployed overseas.

Russia could help with carriers, tactics, larger cruisers, nuclear and conventional sub and how to "quiet" them etc. Most of the PLAN now is made in China (), for example 052s, Subs (most of them are crap, but yeah), fast attack craft, etc. There are still a few Russian ships and subs, for example the Sovys and Kilos. Like I said, Russians might help a bit, then the PLAN will take over and build their own ships. The future of naval warfare might also change, with DDX etc.

How long will Russia really stay ahead of China with this? Russia is a fading power. Most of what it has itself is just last generation material, and they haven't done much to replace it. China will lap Russia eventually.

Lets say China is more capitalist than the Soviets. If China went isolationalist Communist like the Soviets did, there would be no doubt that the US would try to prevent us from taking over the US militarily. However, if China is heading for peace while also modernizing her army to cope with threats, it would make no sense to restart the cold war era secrecy and suspicion. From the looks of it, China is heading for the latter, while trying to retake Taiwan just for egoistical reasons, and of course military reasons since Taiwan is geographically located in between China and a few more pro-US countries in Asia (Japan,SK etc), which might host US military bases.

No nation has quietly given up their power status, and I wouldn't count on America doing it. If China wants to beat us, they had better be prepared to take it. This is one big chess match right now, with both sides trying to set each other up. The fight has already started.

Its gonna be a political war between China and USA. Its gonna be who can secure the most resources, who can hire the best scientists, who has more influence on other countries and who has the ability to wage war with another country if it wanted to (the scare the crap out of you tactics, as Mao said, political power comes from the barrel of a gun).