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SCI/TECH: Well Above Average Hurricane Forecast For 2005

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posted on Jun, 1 2005 @ 10:38 PM
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Colorado State University has released an updated hurricane forecast which predicts that this year tropical cyclone activity to be around 170% of the average seasonal activity. According to the report, we can expect 15 named storms, and about 8 of them to become hurricanes. This hurricane season is predicted to be well above the average. The probability of an intense hurricane hitting the East Coast and the Floridian state is 59%, from the Florida Panhandle to Texas the probability is 44%.
 



www.usatoday.com
Continued warming of the Atlantic Ocean and the decreased likelihood of an El Niño this summer and fall prompted the team to revise its prediction upward, forecaster Philip Klotzbach said.

The team also said there is a 77% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the United States this year. The long-term average is 52%.

The forecast said the probability of an intense hurricane hitting the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, is 59%, compared with the long-term average of 31%. For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, the chance is 44%, compared with the long-term average of 30%.




Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


For the next 12 days anyone living in Florida can buy, without paying any taxes, items which are needed to prepare for the hurricane season. The items include batteries, flashlights, back-up generators, shutters, plywood, etc. People are being advised it is better to prepare now than wait two days before a hurricane hits, and i agree with that advisory. It does seems this year's hurricane season could be a repeat, or even be worse than last year.



[edit on 1-6-2005 by Muaddib]




posted on Jun, 1 2005 @ 11:31 PM
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I could be wrong but I thought I heard something on the news about tax free items but then they stated on the news that plywood would still be taxed. I'm reasonably confident I heard that. If several hurricanes around July, August, and September became a common occurrence in Florida, that would be a pain to live in Florida. Of course Texas and the gulf states got out lucky last year. Their luck may run out this year (44% chance). Maybe Texas and all other southern states should make the same tax free deal. I'm all for it.



posted on Jun, 1 2005 @ 11:35 PM
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I can not speak for everyone else, but personally, I love hurricane season. Great surfing. Enjoyed three last year.






seekerof



posted on Jun, 2 2005 @ 12:34 PM
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I'm having a little trouble with those numbers. If the overall hurricane activity is going to be 170% of normal, then why isn't the likelihood of a hurricane hitting the U.S. going to be 1.7 times normal? Also, how can the overall likelihood of a hurricane hitting the U.S. be 77% when the addition of all the other likelihoods combined doesn't come out that high?

[edit on 2-6-2005 by Astronomer68]



posted on Jun, 2 2005 @ 01:07 PM
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I went to HomeDepot to see if I could take advantage of the tax break on a generator, guess what, all the lower priced models are gone, only a few high priced ones left, so I won't be buying one.

The good news about that is that it seems that "some" people are preparing more for the hurricane season. It's kind of late to order hurricane shutters now though, most companies have a 18-22 week wait
to install shutters, thankfully i'll have my accordian shutters up by the 22nd. However you can still prepare plywood shutters now before any storm threatens, just paint them with wood sealer and you can have them ready for the rest of the season.



posted on Jun, 2 2005 @ 03:34 PM
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Originally posted by Astronomer68
I'm having a little trouble with those numbers. If the overall hurricane activity is going to be 170% of normal, then why isn't the likelihood of a hurricane hitting the U.S. going to be 1.7 times normal? Also, how can the overall likelihood of a hurricane hitting the U.S. be 77% when the addition of all the other likelihoods combined doesn't come out that high?

[edit on 2-6-2005 by Astronomer68]


There can be more hurricanes forming, remember hurricanes form over the oceans. Not all hurricanes make it to land, that's why you think there is a discrepancy in the numbers. This year we have a 170% chance of cyclone activity, well above the average chance of hurricanes forming.

Florida has a 59% chance of getting hit, normally the chance is 31%. The Panhandle and Texas have a 44% chance of getting hit, the long term average in this area is 30%.

You have to understand that even thou the chances for tropical storms and hurricanes to form has almost doubled, there is also a possibility that many of those, or any of them won't make it to land. Although i doubt that none will hit land.

BTW, what do you mean that "the other likelihoods" are not as high as all the other combined?...

You cannot combine these percentages because there are areas, in this case Florida, which are more likely of getting hit than others, hence their percentages of likely being hit will be higher.

Why are you trying to combine the "other likelihoods" anyways? It does not work like that.


[edit on 2-6-2005 by Muaddib]



posted on Jun, 3 2005 @ 01:51 AM
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Muaddib

I know all hurricanes don't make landfall--in fact most don't. But that statement is true in any year. However, I'm sure there must be some historical average that do make landfall, including the U.S. So, for example, in a given average year let us say that 10 hurricanes form up over the ocean but only 3 make landfall in the U.S. That represents a 30% probability that the U.S. will get hit in an average year. Now, lets increase the number of hurricanes from 10 to say 20 and leave the percentage making landfall in the U.S. at 30%. That should, unless my math is all haywire, mean that 6, not 3, will likely hit the U.S., which would correspond exactly to the increase in the overall number of hurricanes. The percentage striking the U.S. did not change, but the number of actual hurricanes hitting the U.S. doubled. In this years forecast the number of hurricanes is supposed to be 170% of average, and if I look at the long term average probability for any one of them striking Florida and see that it is 31%, then it would appear to me that this years probability should be approximately 53%, which is 170% of average, not 59%.
Now, if you take the entire Gulf and East Coast of the U.S. and say that there is a 77% probability that it will get hit by at least one hurricane this year, then if you start subdividing that coastline into smaller and smaller chuncks, the probability that any one of the chuncks will get hit goes down, but the overall probability remains at 77%. The probabilities of all the little chuncks together should therefore add up to 77%, because that is the way math works.



posted on Jun, 3 2005 @ 07:31 AM
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There are many factors that will affect how a hurricane will behave, and in which direction it will move. You are not taking this into account, but meteorologists do. For example, since last year there has been a high pressure system that was the one which caused all those hurricanes to hit Florida last year. That system is in the same place as it was last year.

[edit on 3-6-2005 by Muaddib]



posted on Jun, 3 2005 @ 08:25 AM
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Originally posted by Muaddib
There are many factors that will affect how a hurricane will behave, and in which direction it will move. You are not taking this into account, but meteorologists do. For example, since last year there has been a high pressure system that was the one which caused all those hurricanes to hit Florida last year. That system is in the same place as it was last year.

[edit on 3-6-2005 by Muaddib]


Admittidly I did not take any other factors into account and they certainly could effect the numbers. I know weather forecasters (or any other kind of forecaster) don't like to put out real numbers, but what all those numbers boil down to is that the U.S. may well get hit by about twice the average number of hurricanes.

[edit on 3-6-2005 by Astronomer68]



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