NEWS: U.S. Official Says N. Korea May Collapse

A top State Department official predicted on Thursday that North Korea's decision to remain isolated internationally will eventually lead to the collapse of its communist government.



What would happen if the N. Korean government were to collapse? I think this would make it easier to terrorist to get WMD's. What do you guys thing?

Shoot, it would make the actual choice of launching them much easier. After all, what else do they have to lose.

I don't think NK will fall as long as big bro China is right there near them. In fact, I think China has been the primary reason why they haven't completely fallen in the last 50 years...IMO...

I agree the fall of DPRK would likely lead to WMD's falling into terrorist hands, but i dont think this is likely as stated sbove, as long as china supports them the dprk will survive.

This type of thing happened in Ethiopia in the 70's, but with a much more benevolent ruler. Ethiopia was going hungry and Emperor Haile Selassie I (Ras Tafari) didn't know about it because his government kept the truth hidden from him. Soon, his army revolted and he was supposedly murdered in his sleep.

There are some major differences in the two stories, of course (for instance, Selassie westernized Ethiopia long before the famine, and Selassie was a good ruler that believed in human rights and had respect from world leaders), but my point is that a hungry dog is an angry dog.

Zip

But you have to admit Kim will probably try to sell the WMD's for money. What is stopping them from constantally making WMD's just to sell to terrorist.

I think WMDs are more likely to be transferrred to terrorists while the NK regime exists than if it fell. Upon collapse, the North would quickly reunite with the South and the borders would be secured. It would not be easy for terrorists to go into NK and smuggle things out without help from the state due to its geography.

I disagree that upon DPRK's collapse, they would unite with South Korea. Additionally, I agree with an above poster that the nation is basically on life support right now, but that support won't be yanked. If Korea falls into further collapse, there will be an internal reformation rather than an external one, in my opinion.

Zip

Originally posted by Zipdot

I disagree that upon DPRK's collapse, they would unite with South Korea.

Why? The border between the two Koreas is recent and completely arbitrary. If the North's government collapses, I see no other path than reunification. Koreans on both sides want it.

[edit on 5/26/2005 by djohnsto77]

China will do everything in its power short of war with the U.S. to prevent the collapse of NK. It is the last bastion for China against the U.S. and its allies' strategic dominance in the North Pacific.

Off topic post script: I hope the new ATSNN council member can encourage contributors to return to the days when a one line introduction was frowned upon. Not attacking the author of this article specifically, it just seems to be a common habit lately and smacks of point-farming and/or striving for the "75". A good find nonetheless.

[edit on 2005/5/26 by wecomeinpeace]

I agree with you there wecomeinpeace, but if Kim falls, he's going to fall hard and there won't be anything China can do to salvage the situation in their favor. Kim would never step aside to create a more palatable, but still China-friendly, North Korean government...so you have a very brittle situation that could shatter at any time.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if China went so far as to move troops into NK to maintain stability and provide assistance, if Kim so allowed it. If that happened, you're right, it would be an extremely volatile situation, the outcome of which would be largely dependent on the Bush admin's intentions. China, however, would not see the stationing of troops there as a military act as much as the U.S. would, because the PLA also functions as the disaster relief organ for China.

Im sorry but Christopher Hill is full of crap.


The differences between China in the 1970's and North Korea currently should be more apparent to a supposed Assistant Secretary of State. The opportunities for North Korea to modernize and liberalize wont occur when under economic sanctions. Also China realized it had the opportunity to modernize due to its massive population and manufactoring clout. North Korea has none of these.

"It's a real problem," Hill said, alluding to North Korea's self-imposed isolation.

I suppose they imposed the economic sanctions on themselves as well. The Americans despise any communist state and only trade with China because its the worlds most populace country.

"small issues," such as the occasional pejorative comments in Washington

Pejorative: A disparaging or belittling word or expression.

I think they have every right to be pissed off at how a supposed modern country refers to sovereign nations. When you are supposedly meant to be trying to get a nation back to the negotiating table to enforce your own will on them you shouldnt slag them off in the process.

Originally posted by djohnsto77
I think WMDs are more likely to be transferrred to terrorists while the NK regime exists than if it fell.

That wasnt the case when the USSR fell. There are countless weapons missing from their caches since the collapse.

Originally posted by djohnsto77
Upon collapse, the North would quickly reunite with the South and the borders would be secured.

I suppose it was only Kim Il Sung and his family that fought the Korean War. When Kim Jong Il is gone the North will greet the South with open arms I think your prediction is off. There is an endocrinated populace that only communism can produce and a million man army. I guarantee you a power struggle in North Korea if this regime fails and most likely another civil war.

Who ever said China would send in troops is spot on. But I also think South Korea would unilaterally cross the border as an apparent stabilizing/humanitarian gesture.

It will be a major catastrophe.

[edit on 26/5/05 by subz]

subz, there's no comparing the geography and situation of the USSR with the much smaller North Korea, whose surrounded by China, Russia, South Korea and ocean.

And the Korean war was for unification, but a reunification under the North's military power. If the North collapses, they'll still want unification but under different terms.

Of course there is comparing, history is better at predicting how things would pan out as compared to a a crystal ball. The USSR was a communist country with all the inheirant lack of freedoms that go with it. Kim Jong Il wont give those hard earned nukes up and not to Islamic extremists. Im sure the secular as hell communist North Koreans will go hand in hand with religious zealots...Think about it.

Also the North will not gladly re-unite with the South and to be honest I dont think the South would accept them. 20 million starving people would be an extreme drain on their resources regardless of their shared heritage. Look at West and East Germany. The East Germans are still a major drain on the Western section and that was well over decade ago.

Russia has huge porous borders including some with extremist Muslim areas, no such situation exists in North Korea. I'm surprised you don't see the difference subz.