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NEWS: A Tropical Storm...Already?

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posted on May, 18 2005 @ 09:09 AM
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Still half a month shy of the official start of the Hurricane Season, but this year already looks to be starting off with a bang! Tropical Storm Adrian seems poised to move near the US mainland in the next few days. Most normal sources for such information haven't even switched to "storm mode", so one may have to look carefully to follow this storm.
 



www.nhc.noaa.gov
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS
MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A
WEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


NOAA has already predicted a busy 2005 Hurricane Season. Adrian's arrival seems to be confirming the predictions. Florida is already near the projected path, and strengthening is expected. Florida was affected by numerous hurricanes last year.

Special thanks to Worldwatcher and Rren for also finding sources.



Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Forecast for 2005: Another Busy Hurricane Season




posted on May, 18 2005 @ 09:15 AM
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The East Pacific's hurricane season starts in mid-May so a storm over there now is normal. The only thing thats not normal about this one is that is has the potential to cross over to the Atlantic and regenerate and it would also be renamed.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 09:26 AM
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Exactly. I believe "Arlean" would be the new name.
If it moves as such though, it would then be before the Atlantic Hurricane Season start.

Cuba, I should mention, has also had it's share of Hurricanes last year, and such storms usually prove far more lethal for that nation. Good luck to all in the path, and start preparing...



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 10:14 AM
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Looking at the projected path pic you posted Gazrok. It seems they got the storm moving in a relatively straight line. If i were a betting man, i would predict a turn. With all that land to cross and the increase in water temps. once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico seems some change in trajectory would be expected? Also what effect is the gulf stream expected to have once its in the Atlantic(towards land or steered further out into the Atlantic?). I am not reassured to see such activity allready, to say the least.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 10:29 AM
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They're probably expecting the Highs over the US to dip down and steer it. That all depends on a lot of factors...such as how well it stays together moving over Central America.

If it's still together and moves quickly over the land, then it has more chances of strengthening when in the warmer waters before hitting Cuba.

Personally, I think it's going to hook around a bit and go between Mexico and Cuba and into the Gulf, but still too far out to accurately even guess...



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 10:30 AM
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OH CRAP! Man ... we have reservations for Getttysburg for Memorial
Day weekend. We do it every year.. go to the parade and do some
ghost hunting. UGH! Looking at that map ... if that thing turns up
the coast, it'll be here just in time for the weekend. UGH!



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 11:18 AM
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Originally posted by FlyersFan
OH CRAP! Man ... we have reservations for Getttysburg for Memorial
Day weekend. We do it every year.. go to the parade and do some
ghost hunting. UGH! Looking at that map ... if that thing turns up
the coast, it'll be here just in time for the weekend. UGH!


oh crap!! I have a kid down there somewhere foating around!!

on a ship that hasn't managed to go out yet and not break down!!

will the Navy call their ships to port if they know this thing is coming?



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 11:18 AM
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oh crap!!! double post!!


sorry!!

[edit on 18-5-2005 by dawnstar]



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 12:25 PM
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I remember ranting about the potential for more and nastier storms a year or so ago, the link is long since lost to me. Here is a link to a fresh surface temperature anomaly chart - earth.rice.edu... - notice the orange tint in the Carribbean and the tongue coming out of Baffin Bay. The temp difference is only on the order of a degree or so, but that is a LOT of water, and it represents a LOT of additional energy now in the system. This, coupled with a report I saw a week or so ago about the apparrently immanent shutdown of the Gulf Stream, does not make me feel real good about the future weather patterns in the North Atlantic.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 12:38 PM
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Nice link Big Erle


This storm is traveling along that warmer water now, if the storms 'tend' to follow or drift toward the warmer waters, that puts it in the middle of the gulf....seems it may have the energy it needs to pass over Central America relatively intact. Of course anything so far out is a guess.


that surface temp. chart seems to show a substantial warming throughout the entire ocean, more energy more frequent and more powerfull the storms... correct?



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 02:06 PM
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The water in the tropical E-Pac is extremley warm, and with the way it looks on the latest satellite images I expect it to become a hurricane before landfall. The reason why it is going on an easterly path is because it is under a westerly jet(upper level winds from the west to east) that stretches all the way to the Atlantic basin. The water temps north of Cuba are not warm enough yet for hurricanes so if Adrian takes the north part of that track it will not be a hurricane in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico.

I think we are in for another active year and probaly an early year(hurricanes in July for sure) and Im ready for it.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 02:43 PM
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the thing to remember about that chart is these are temperature deviations from normal, not actual temperatures. Warmer than normal may not be warm enough to generate or sustain a tropical storm/hurricane, but the temp will continue its seasonal increase, and if the peak temp is proportionally higher than normal, just watch those category 5's pop up.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 03:38 PM
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The good news, is that many of us here in Florida are still pretty well stocked from last year's onslaught, or at least now knowledgable enough to start early, and have supplies onhand. Even the least hit areas usually lost power for some time....so we're much more ready for it now...



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 04:09 PM
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No surprise, but yet another chance for the insurance industry, FEMA and "emergency powers" acts for politicians to go into play.

It's like a sort of environmental welfare. Except instead of blaming society, blame Nature. And do so yearly.

/me awaits the "Bush caused the hurricane" rants to start.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 06:02 PM
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Here's hoping forecasters are right :



Weird & wet: Storm Adrian to soak Guatemala and El Salvador, maybe S. Fla.
If that track holds, it would remain far enough south of Florida that its impact would be minimal, said meteorologist Kim Brabander.

"We might get a few showers," he said. "But for now, we forecast a 30-percent chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday."

Adrian is the first storm to form in the Pacific, where hurricane season started on May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1.

Tropical Storm Adrian will retain that name if it arrives in the Caribbean -- even though the first tropical storm on the Atlantic side is supposed to be Arlene.



posted on May, 18 2005 @ 09:18 PM
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Originally posted by dawnstar
.................
oh crap!! I have a kid down there somewhere foating around!!
.................
will the Navy call their ships to port if they know this thing is coming?


If it becomes a real problem they take the ships off shore. Better chance to survive any hurricanes.

If there are any hurricanes and thee are ships on shore they will take a lot of damage. Smaller boats can become projectiles in hurricanes such as Andrew. Large ships will recieve damage from the hurricanes forcing the ships to crash back and forth agaisnt the docks.

[edit on 18-5-2005 by Muaddib]



posted on May, 19 2005 @ 10:46 AM
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great satellite pic of the storm here:
Tropical Storm Adian

can't get over the comments from meteorologists who keep saying how "unusual" this storm is.


[edit on 5-19-2005 by worldwatcher]



posted on May, 19 2005 @ 10:56 AM
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Another unusual thing is the NHC is now saying in their discussion on Adrian is if it keeps its circualtion while passing over the mountains it will keep the same name in the Carribean but if it falls apart and regenerates in the Carribean it will be re-named Arlene. Also the conditions in the Carribean are favorable for a hurricane so I am very interested in what the storm is going to do.



posted on May, 19 2005 @ 03:15 PM
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Looks like Adrian has been promoted.
news.yahoo.com...&printer=1
Interesting season coming up, it appears.



posted on May, 19 2005 @ 03:40 PM
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*side note-

Gaz ALL CAPS??


Next time, take a little effort and re-do that will ya?




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