Toying with perfection

As of January, many of us know that NASA launched the Deep Impact probe to rendezvous with Tempel 1. Now that the impact event is less than a month away, I am getting more than a little anxious of immediate and near future effects that this mission may cause.

Everything in the universe has its place. Celestial orbits, IMO, are not something with which I would suggest tampering. Nevertheless, they are going to smash a huge copper ball into the comet. What concerns me most is the effect this will have on Tempel 1's orbit. What concerns me more is the fact that I haven't heard any scientific discussions regarding the possible effect on its orbit.

This is potentially a very hazardous action. What if its orbit is altered? Could it hit the moon? Earth? Some other planet in our solar system? How would that effect the orbit of the body with which it collides?

Your thoughts?

The Blue Orbit is Tempel 1 the red one is Deep impact. Notice the distance to the earth at .376 AU. That is 1/3 the distance between the Earth and the Sun. As for the discussion of what will happen when this 500 Kilogram projetile, the Scientists involved have been split on the subject. Some say it will not affect the orbit at all(according to simulations) and some say it might(again according to simulations). We need this data as the so-called Balance of the Solar System could wipe us out eventually. We need to know how much kenetic energy is required to move the sucker, and they can do it in such a way that there is little chance of anything adversely happening. For all we know they could knock it out of the system, it's not like it's orbit intersects our planet, it intersects Mars's orbital path. If anything Mars and the scientific instruments we have there are in greater risk.

Have they posted any "margin of error"?

As noted by your image the other side of its orbit is very near Jupiter. It may only take a small nudge for another body's gravity to grab it. Jupiter could end up taking another comet right in the chops.

What about the ejected debris? Scientists don't REALLY know what a comet is. I don't fully buy into the "dirty snowball" concept. This material could be something we've never encountered. Hopefully copper doesn't have an adverse effect that wasn't expected.

Close to Jupiter? It may come within .30 Au but not any closer. Look at the diagram and compare the distance between Deep impact and Tempel 1 and then compare the distance between Jupiter and Tempel 1(when they are close). We would need to significantly alter it's orbit to achieve such a feat. IF we did then I would be extatic as it would mean we could easily change the trajectory of any Earth Bound object fairly cheaply.

How could they know a "Margin for Error" when they have not done anything like this before? I guess we should just wait till one is on a collision course with earth and just hope and prey our inadequete knowledge will protect us.

[edit on 6-5-2005 by sardion2000]

This is definately a "wait-and-see" issue. I think I'll keep a hardhat close...just in case.

If I shoot a BB at the Disney Cruise Ship would it change its course? Of course not, and that is a good analogy for the NASA mission. It is a matter of scale. All the BB would do is chip off some paint which is exactly what NASA is trying to do... chip off a bit of the comet to see what it is made of. Celestial bodies bump into things all the time and if you look at any of the bigger asteroids you will see impact craters. Comets have them as well. The orbit of this comet is no where near that of the Earths and we have nothing to fear as far as it changing its course and hitting us goes. The mass of the copper 'BB' is far to small in comparison to the comets mass to do much more than chip off a small bit. There are other solar bodies that have a far greater chance of hitting us and in fact NASA has its eye on one in particular with a very high probability if impacting Earth in the future.

By studying this comet we will learn a great deal about the origins of the solar system and the unioverse at large. SO... lets chip off a bit of cometary paint and see what its made of.

By the way, sardion, I can't recall any issues with comets impacting the Earth. Asteroids and meteors should be the target then.

As for the information gleened from this endeavor, I'm believe it may give us answers to some of our questions regarding comets.

Terapin, how fast is the "BB" travelling? With enough force, a bb could be quite devastating.

Originally posted by BadMojo
By the way, sardion, I can't recall any issues with comets impacting the Earth. Asteroids and meteors should be the target then.

As for the information gleened from this endeavor, I'm believe it may give us answers to some of our questions regarding comets.

Terapin, how fast is the "BB" travelling? With enough force, a bb could be quite devastating.

Comets have impacted the Earth thousands of times, only it happened millenia ago. Now, most of the dangerous comets have either impacted Earth, been flung out of the Solar System, or are still just floating about.

The purpose of the mission is to gain knowledge about comets, so your presumptions on the purpose of the mission are correct.

And no, the impact is going to have negligable effects on the comet. As for a bb being a danger? See what affect it has on a train. Will it knock it off the tracks?

For the technical data minded... the impactor is a one meter long probe mostly made from soft copper with a camera attached that will take pics up until the moment of impact ... The comet is 6.5 kilometers wide. Thats 6500 to 1

LOL If the projectile is big enough to alter the course of the comet so that it intersects with earth, then it stands to reason that a similar sized object could be used to alter its course again so that it doesnt intersect with the earth. Problem solved.

I'm not saying I agree, because NO ONE really knows what a comet is...hence this mission. Hoagland believes that comets are a form of electromagnetic energy. If this were true, there could be some really interesting events.

Would the copper polarize the comet? Would the copper become a 500 kg magnet? Would the comet bcome a huge magnet?

I don't know much about physics, but I think these aren't unreasonable questions to pose.

Hoagland believes A LOT of things... None of which have been proven true yet. I wouldn't take stock in his theories.

Anyway, we do already know a good deal about comets through the science of spectroscopy. Through it we can identify what the compositions of comets, and just about anything else is space, are.

"Balance"? You people talk as if we humans are of a foreign dimention, that we are here in this universe causing unhormonious events which threaten its very existence. If the balance of the universe involves comets ramming into planets, asteroids doing like wise, then why is sending a 500 kilogram object into a 10000000 kilgram object such a possible cataclysmic event? If we humans have a purpose in this dank and illusioned life of ours it is to answer the infinite question "WHY"? And in this pursuit, I suppose, we must tamper with the balance of the celestial heavens.

They've measured the weight of the comet? What I dont' understand is why everyone DOESN'T think this is going to effect ANYTHING. If there is enough force to knock a crater the size of a "football field" in a comet, that it will have NO effect whatsoever.

I'm not saying these things WILL happen, but there is the POSSIBILITY...

Once again... remember that this comet is 6.5 kilometers wide. Thats Big VERY BIG and a little dent in it wont be such a bid deal. Its not like we are going to smash a SUV into a Honda Civic. It is more like smashing a bug onto the windshield. No big deal. Sit back on your couch and relax. Fire up the BBQ and then take a look at the fun.

"The interesting part of this mission is that we don't really know what to expect," said Don Yeomans, a senior research scientist with the Deep Impact mission at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). "But no matter what happens, we'll observe the phenomena."

When Deep Impact crashes into Comet Tempel 1, the size of its crater remains will depend on the comet's structure and density. Size estimates from mission scientists describe the crater as ranging from a meager 10 meters to the size of the Rose Bowl football stadium in Pasadena, California.

I pulled the two previous paragraphs from space.com's "To Strike a Comet". I use them to underline my previous statement that we just don't know what's going to happen. I have yet to find anyone talking about possible orbit alteration or lack thereof.

One week to go...

For those of us in the western hemisphere, scientists are saying that we should be able to see the event around 2:30 AM. That would be for the southwestern part of the western hemisphere...southwestern US...Chile...Argentina...western Mexico. There is a possibility that it will be seen by the naked eye. It should be quite a show...

Originally posted by Terapin
For the technical data minded... the impactor is a one meter long probe mostly made from soft copper with a camera attached that will take pics up until the moment of impact ... The comet is 6.5 kilometers wide. Thats 6500 to 1

That's a good point Terapin

6500 to 1!!!!!!!!!

Let's look at that ratio for a second.

I'm roughly six feet tall so if you rammed me into a 39,000 foot long comet what possible serious damge could I do? Mount Everest is only 29,035 feet tall, it doesn't matter how fast you ram something 6 feet tall into it, it's not going to move. Dent yes, just like Deep Impact and Temple one.

As for the panic stricken folks worried about cosmic disruptions and changing the balance of the universe, I think alot of that is manufactured anxiety. Most people have the common sense to see that this NASA mission is about solid science and not conjecture over "plausible possibilities". Most people who are making a fuss about the Deep Impact mission are doing so either out of ignorance of the science behind it or just trying to get a rise out of other people. Manufactured Anxiety.

Also, BadMojo if there were an adverse effect from Deep Impact then do you think the hard hat is really gonna help?

Why would a comet "spew dust"? This was reported just today with the impact less than a week away. I haven't found any information regarding this kind of activity in other comets. Is it "melting"? Gas pocket "eruption"? Peculiar behavior for a comet...

Originally posted by The Block
LOL If the projectile is big enough to alter the course of the comet so that it intersects with earth, then it stands to reason that a similar sized object could be used to alter its course again so that it doesnt intersect with the earth. Problem solved.

Good thinking

Im glad we humans have people like you Block