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Iranian Elections on June 17th- what will happen?

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posted on May, 6 2005 @ 10:06 AM
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Voter turnout for Iranian elections has been exceedingly low in recent years, partly because of disillusionment with the voting sytem imposed by the Mullahs, but also because the moderate president Khatami has been able to do so little for the cause of democracy in Iran.

The Iran Freedom Foundation reports that boycotting of the coming elections is being organized, however on Coast to Coast AM two nights ago the founder of the IFF suggested that illegal satellite and radio broadcasts into Iran are attempting to organize an election-day revolution, not unlike we have recently seen in Ukraine and Lebanon.
www.iranfreedomfoundation.org...

www.coasttocoastam.com... (free audio of the interview is available on C2C's website, it's in the first hour.) If you are a streamlink member you can download it in MP3 form as well.

I don't really expect major change, but I do suspect that the US had a hand in the recent series of election-day uprisings and I wouldn't be shocked if we tried it in Iran next month. What do you think would happen if it is attempted? Will the international community respond and enforce the election results if a peaceful popular uprising attempts to install moderates? (Iranians have resorted to violence against students before, and disqualified over 2000 candidates from running in last year's parliamentary elections, so it seems almsot certain that election results or massive demonstrations in favor of a moderate would not be tollerated)




posted on May, 6 2005 @ 11:29 AM
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It would be wonderful to see something akin to the Ukrainian Orange Revolution occur in Iran. A democratic Iran would be much less of a potential threat even if they ended up obtaining nuclear weapons.



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 07:01 PM
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Originally posted by djohnsto77
It would be wonderful to see something akin to the Ukrainian Orange Revolution occur in Iran. A democratic Iran would be much less of a potential threat even if they ended up obtaining nuclear weapons.


I think that a democratic revolution in Iran might present a situation where the new government would barter away its weapons and missile programs in exchange for help rebuilding their society. If we offer to buy them voting machines (hopefully not Diebolds lol), train their police, invite a few of their young men to our universities to study law and such- in short offer them the things that will advance their cause, they may be willing to accept inspectors and give full cooperation to make sure that the weapons program is dismantled. Of course what we have to be wary of is that we don't expect them to just lay down and be our punk if it happens. We still have to treat them with respect and bargain fairly with them if we want them to give up the weapons- otherwise the people who undertake the revolution are gonna turn around and say "jesus- these democratic governments are all a bunch of dillwads- let's build weapons to keep them out of here."



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 07:20 PM
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What will happen?
The same that has been happening. The Mullahs will continue to oppress and control Iran and those seeking democratic reforms.


Such was the regime's response to Iranians' overwhelming support for reformist candidates in prior elections. In the 2001 presidential election, most of Iran's young people - nearly 70% are under the age of 30 - voted for reformist candidate Mohammad Khatami. The President holds little legislative power in the Islamic Republic, however, and Iranians soon became disillusioned with his inability to effect democratic change, and with the mullahs' version of elections in general. Voter turnout in the 2004 elections was the lowest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the government was obliged to bus residents to polling places to increase participation.

On June 17, an election will be held to choose a successor to replace Khatami in August. Since the regime's elections are merely a cynical pretense of democracy, there is little chance that the results will reflect the will of the people.






seekerof


Sep

posted on May, 6 2005 @ 07:52 PM
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Originally posted by The Vagabond
Voter turnout for Iranian elections has been exceedingly low in recent years,


www.cnn.com...



however on Coast to Coast AM two nights ago the founder of the IFF suggested that illegal satellite and radio broadcasts into Iran are attempting to organize an election-day revolution, not unlike we have recently seen in Ukraine and Lebanon.


A revolution is what they have been orgonizing for the last 26 years. Everytimee something little happens they call for revolution. They are nothing but jokes. If anything happens it will be orgonized by the students or other opposition groups in Iran and you will not here about it until the day when it is to take place.



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 08:05 PM
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Originally posted by SeekerofVoter turnout in the 2004 elections was the lowest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the government was obliged to bus residents to polling places to increase participation.

On June 17, an election will be held to choose a successor to replace Khatami in August. Since the regime's elections are merely a cynical pretense of democracy, there is little chance that the results will reflect the will of the people.


Seeker, the Iran Freedom Foundation was founded and run by the Muslim hating, Swift Boat Vet for Truth, Jerome Corsi.

Take everything on that site with an ocean full of salt.

The turn out for the 2004 election was just over 50% and while that was lower than the 67% turnout in the 2000 elections, it's still significant.

What I'd like to know, is why this organization is calling for a boycott of the elections if they support democracy.



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 08:09 PM
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Originally posted by The Vagabond

The Iran Freedom Foundation reports that boycotting of the coming elections is being organized, however on Coast to Coast AM two nights ago the founder of the IFF suggested that illegal satellite and radio broadcasts into Iran are attempting to organize an election-day revolution, not unlike we have recently seen in Ukraine and Lebanon.


It's Jerome 'Swift Boat Vet' Corsi who's behind those illegal broadcasts.

Just look at the action plan on their website:


www.iranfreedomfoundation.org...
The Iran Freedom Foundation will:

* Support American radio and television stations that broadcast to Iran. We have identified Los-Angeles based KRSI radio and Apadana television as the most credible outlet for this purpose. KRSI founder Assadolah Morovati pioneered US-Iranian broadcasting, and brings with him institutional expertise knowledge of Iran and radio, as well as partnerships with other radio stations, many of which he helped establish. IFF will work closely with Mr. Morovati, KRSI and Apadana to counter the regime's internal propaganda by telling Iranians the truth about American intentions and the real situation in Iran.
---
# Support efforts to make the June 17, 2005 presidential election a day of peaceful protest against the mullahs' illegitimate regime. The IFF supports an internationally monitored referendum that will allow Iranians to determine their type of government, and the future of their nation.


I think they changed the last bit of text.
When I last saw the page I think they said outright that they were organizing a boycott of the elections.

[edit on 6-5-2005 by AceOfBase]



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 08:32 PM
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I certainly appreciate what you have mentioned, but I'm not seeing an issue with this. Does not IFF openly and publically disclose what their intentions and goals are?

I think the IFF is straight up and upfront with what its purpose and goals are, AceOfBase. If you or others have issue with it or them, then that is your right. At least their intentions are stated, openly.
About the IFF

Whether taking what they say as a "grain of salt" is again subjective. Would that be like or be the same as someone citing information from AlJazeera.com, Rense, or any other 'alternative' news source?

Again, I have no issue with their goals, intentions, or action plan. These reformists, inside and outside of Iran, sought a boycott of the elections in 2004. The problem now is?




seekerof



posted on May, 6 2005 @ 08:42 PM
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Originally posted by Seekerof
Again, I have no issue with their goals, intentions, or action plan. These reformists, inside and outside of Iran, sought a boycott of the elections in 2004. The problem now is?


The problem is that it's being headed by someone who isn't even Iranian and doesn't even like Muslims. The Iranians that he mentions probably don't even live in Iran. They're probably exiles from the Shah era.

Another problem is that he seems to be using this site to promote his book and part of his 'Action Plan' includes distributing his book.

I wouldn't surprised if he's using funds from the US governement or US NGO's to pay for this website and his books.

EDIT:
Here's a link on some of the grants programs but I don't know for sure if he recieved any:
Human Rights and Democratization Initiatives in Iran

I wouldn't be surprised if he did get grants from the US government as payback for helping to smear John Kerry during the US elections.

[edit on 6-5-2005 by AceOfBase]



posted on May, 7 2005 @ 01:52 PM
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I think my point has been missed slightly here on a couple of fronts, and I also have to take seeker's side that it doesn't particularly matter who started the movement. What matters is rather or not it takes hold in Iran. If there is anything that we should be accutely aware of in light of the occupation of Iraq, it is that the US can't change a nation unless that nations citizens can really pick up the ball and run with it. The Iraqis are trying, but they aren't there yet and time will tell. Unforunately, Americans in many cases don't feel it's worthwhile and won't want to set foot in Iran- so in this case the Iranians have to pick up the ball and run with it BIG TIME, in fact they basically have to do it all alone with just a little instigating on our part.

So here we go. 1999 had decent turnout as SEP mentioned. What about 2004? It was over 50%, but you grade on a curve according to what is standard for the nation in question. Any way you slice it, voter turnout was at an all time low in the last election and some Iranians (not the IFF to my knowledge, although they do say they would support whatever Iranians choose to do) are talking boycott because of the exclusion of 2000+ candidates.

Corsi has said that his illegal broadcasts (I agree, probably funded through our support of NGOs) are encouraging a Ukraine/Lebanon style campaign to overturn the corrupt results which Seeker is very reasonable to predict. My point has nothing to do with whos idea it was or where the money comes from. What I'm wondering is will the Iranians try it if we encourage them, and if they try it, will the international community allow them to be stepped on by the mullahs?

The way I see it, there are significant signs of a general will to resist the farce elections, although apparently there is no clear plan in action as to how to do it (boycott vs peaceful popular uprising). What I can't help wondering is simply if the Iranians will put something together either at our instigation or on their own which draws attention and perhaps demands action from the international community. Afterall, if the Iranian people DO make their move, this would be a perfect chance for the UN to keep America from going to war over there by taking action to support the will of the Iranian voters and showing that justice can be brought other than at the point of a bayonet.

What might the Iranians do, and how might the UN react? Who gives a rats hind quarters about who encouraged them do stand up for themselves, much less about what unsubstantiated charges about his feelings towards muslims you might like to make?

Edit to add: about the question of Iranian exiles. Suppose (since you don't seem to be a big fan of Bush) that he suddenly revoked your constitutional rights and you had to flee America. If 30 years later the chance came to return to America and store the rule of law, would you be stripped of your right to participate in that simply because you'd had the good sense to get the hell out when a maniac came to power?

[edit on 7-5-2005 by The Vagabond]



posted on May, 7 2005 @ 03:29 PM
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Originally posted by djohnsto77
It would be wonderful to see something akin to the Ukrainian Orange Revolution occur in Iran. A democratic Iran would be much less of a potential threat even if they ended up obtaining nuclear weapons.


I thought they were democratic? Seeing as they're having elections.

And how is it the mullahs who are controlling Iran? The way i always saw it was they have a parliament, president, and a supreme leader, who is the only mullah there really.



posted on May, 7 2005 @ 04:00 PM
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Problem is the mullah's have veto power over which candidates can participate in elections, so while it may be a democracy, at present it is a limited one. Hopefully the Iranians can change this by themselves.

As far as Corsi goes, the man is a nut.

If I were an Iranian I would run screaming from any attempt by him to "help", as I think nothing would make him happier than to see Iran and all its inhabitants converted to a large sheet of radioactive glass.

Here are some choice quotes by Corsi on Muslims, I am sure he has the Iranians' best interests at heart
:



Let's see exactly why it isn't the case that Islam is a worthless, dangerous Satanic religion? Where's the proof to the contrary? (04/24/2004)

Islam is like a virus -- it affects the mind -- maybe even better as an analogy -- it is a cancer that destroys the body it infects... No doctor would hesitate to eliminate cancer cells from the body. (11/26/02)

Islam is a peaceful religion as long as the women are beaten, the boys buggered, and the infidels killed. (11/22/2002)

How's this as an analogy -- the Koran is simply the "software" for producing deviant cancer cell political behavior and violence in human beings. (02/15/2002)

Isn't the Democratic Party the official SODOMIZER PROTECTION ASSOCIATION of AMERICA -- oh, I forgot, it was just an accident that Clintoon's first act in office was to promote "gays in the military." RAGHEADS are Boy-Bumpers as clearly as they are Women-Haters -- it all goes together. (11/18/2001)


[edit on 5/7/05 by xmotex]



posted on May, 8 2005 @ 12:46 AM
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I'm not going to defend Corsi or question the authenticty of those quotes because frankly I don't care what his motives are.
If the Iranian people rise up and take control of their government because he was provoking them, even if he provoked them only out of hatred for the Islamic government, then just as well. Just as long as the Iranian people take back their country. Keyword IRANIAN (not American puppets).

I understand that the government keeps a tight hold on the elections. What happens if over a million Iranians take to the streets to say that one of the banned candidates is their man though. Can the mullahs really put down a huge popular uprising that has a clearly stated democratic will without incurring the wrath of the free world?



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