Hurricane Predictions for 2005?, page 1

Originally posted by WyrdeOne
I think Hurricanes are overrated...

I went swimming in the ocean during both Gloria and Andrew, and I gotta tell you, it was a hell of a lot of fun.

Dangerous, foolhardy, insane? Maybe. But it was dark and stormy, and the waves were tossing me into the sky like a toy. It was a blast. I wasn't too worried because I'm a strong swimmer, and I've been around the ocean all my life, but just so we're clear "Don't try this at home kiddies."

The NE gets hurricanes that are spent, usually. If we got one that was in full bloom, we might have some issues with beach houses getting washed away, and power lines tossed about. I still don't think we're anywhere near as vulnerable as the beach communities down south.

I worry more about tornadoes frankly. One of those suckers cleared a mountain of trees not more than a few years ago in the Berkshires, and we're not even supposed to get tornadoes.

I beg to differ for one simple reason....Trees and Rain. The Northeast has a ton more trees than the southern coast and also a lot of valleys. We're just not built like the southern coast for storm surges and such.

Let's take Tropical Storm Floyd (Not Hurricane for Northeasters) for example.....

www.firstscience.com...
www4.ncsu.edu...
www.cnn.com...

I lived in the Lower Hudson Valley at the time of the storm..

"The Hudson Valley (north of New York City) has been very hard hit," Gov. George Pataki told CNN on Friday. "There are tens of thousands of homes without power. The commuter rail lines (north of the city) have been really washed out, so it's going to take some time to get them back to normal." National Guard troops joined highway workers to clean debris off roads.

And here's another interesting read on what could happen with a Category 4 Hurricane and up.

www2.sunysuffolk.edu...

A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).

Some of the key observations from the storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:

Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.

[edit on 5/6/2005 by DJSpellBound]