Originally posted by Paul
Good question. The unmistakable fact is, as you state, that the USA is moving to secure certain regions, and those regions are key oil
producing regions. So if it is not pure co-incidence that the US is moving in, then it stands to reason that it does have something to do with
Whether it is to do with Peak Oil remains to be seen, but a dwindling resource is certainly a valuable resource - regardless of whether or not it will
run out in a matter of decades.
Oil is not dwindling. Peak oil states that it will, in effect, dissapear instantly (not literally, and not from teh ground, just the market). So if
peak oil is true, the last
thing you do is bother to secure these regions. You secure your own country, and some nearby neighbhors water and
non-oil based energy resources, not scatter your power across the world.
I understand what some people are saying. If oil is 'dwindling', and there's not much left, then you'd seize control of the places where its
But no, because with peak oil, you hit the production peak, you very quickly have the oil drained out of the market, and you can't actually get it
out of the ground anymore. To deal with it, you establish gigantic (really gigantic) physical reserves, not try to control the areas that have in in
the rock. You won't
be able to make use of the middle east and central asia. Its perhaps counter-intuitive, but peak oil isn't just about
'there's no oil left' its that you have to spend many barrels to get one out of the natural rock. IOW, it effectively 'dissapears' in a snap.
Yes, not an actual snap, but over a number of years. But whats it matter? If, say, the US retreats to its own borders, peak oil 'hits', and say,
the Russians decide to invade the US, well, by the time peak oil has run its course, those russian troops are effectively stranded, and destroyed.
maintain offshore global control without oil (unless you revert to muskets and chariots). If peak oil is real, then the strategic
worth of those regions drops to zero, it doesn't increase because oil is 'running out', because peak oil is more than just running out of oil.
If you knew
peak oil was real, you'd return everything to the homeland to prepare for the impending societal collapse, and have to 'weather
the storm' as the world's regions go through 'systems collapse', like in the dark ages or the end of the bronze age.
If Peak Oil does happen, there will be a chaotic and desperate scramble for the last reserves,
And those nations will be the ones that don't survive the systems collapse. They'll be the ones that have foreign gendarms patrolling their streets
and protecting the occupiers systems of in-country forts and coastal ports.