Harris Nesbitt, an commodities investment house and subsidiary of Harris Bank, just released a research report that provides analysis of production
details from Saudi's largest oil field---and the largest oil field in the world, Ghawar.
When oil prices hit $50 a barrel, the Saudi's claimed that they would increase production by 500,000 barrels a day, ramping up to an additional 5
million a day by 2012.
However, instead of delivering 500,000 barrels of light sweet crude which is easily processed by oil refineries, the Saudis pumped out dark sulphurous
sludge--or sour crude, which has a lower gasoline yield and is currently selling at less than $50 per barrel. There are only a few refineries that
can process sour crude and they have no excess capacity--apparently the Saudis won't have the capability to increase light sweet production for
another 7 years.
In addition, the 2012 increase was scaled back to 2.5 million barrels because--and this is the kicker--production from existing fields would decrease
2.5 million b/d. Ouch.
And there is more....
As if that weren't bad enough news for consumers, the Saudis claim
they need at least $32 a barrel to justify this new production, because
it requires waterflooding. Desalinating water from the Gulf and
pumping it out to the desert, and then pumping it down into
oilfields, is expensive.
Waterflooding on newborn Saudi wells? Isn't waterflooding
petroleum Viagra for aging wells?
*snip*
Because the combination of the news that there's no new Saudi Light
coming on stream for the next seven years plus the 27% projected
decline from existing fields means Hubbert's Peak has arrived in
Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom's decline rate will be among the world's
fastest as this decade wanes. Most importantly, Hubbert's Peak must
have arrived for Ghawar, the world's biggest oilfield, and Wall Street's
most-cited reason for assuring us month after month that oil prices
would plunge because there were so many billions of barrels of
readily-available crude overhanging the market.
The Street's perception was a tad outdated: OPEC had 15 million b/d
of excess capacity in 1986 when the Saudis decided to rein in OPEC
cheaters and head off further development of major projects abroad,
including the North Sea and the Alberta oil sands. By 2002, OPEC's
unused capacity was down to the one million b/d range, which is,
effectively, too tiny to give the cartel the power to set prices.
corporate.bmo.com...
If Saudi Arabia has reached peak oil, the world has reached peak oil. Saudi Arabia is currently producing a large part of the world's output and has
25% of the world's reserves. They are doing a lot of PR regarding the extent of their reserves and production capability, but as the global oil
director of Platt's points out, not all barrels are the same.
www.rigzone.com...
www.energybulletin.net...
www.simmonsco-intl.com...
english.aljazeera.net...