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The Worlds Oil reserves will expire on Thanksgiving Day 2005

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posted on Apr, 10 2005 @ 08:37 PM
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It seems as if Peak Oil is the new term that can be so easily thrown in the midst of any conversation.

The theory of 'Peak Oil' was actually coined 50 years ago by geologist M. King Hubbert who showed that the output of an oilfield or oil production of an entire country, increases year by year up to the point (a "peak") at which approximately half the oil is exhausted. From there, he said, annual output drops inexorably toward zero.
www.alternet.org...

Here is what has become known as 'The Hubbert Curve'

external image

Now when it comes to the Hubbert Curve reaching absolulte zero, well a low of 'Oil philsosphers' have preditions of their own:

- Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicts between now and 2010.

- British Petroleum exploration consultant Francis Harper predicts between 2010 and 2020.

- Consulting firm PFC Energy predicts 2010 to 2015.

- The publication Petroleum Review predicts 2007.

- Richard Heinberg, author of the 2003 book, The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, predicts 2007 or 2008.

- Retired Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes, author of Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak predicts Thanksgiving Day, 2005.

- Energy consultant Michael Lynch maintains that there's no peak in sight for "the next 20 or 30 years."

- Peter Odell of Erasmus University in the Netherlands predicts Thanksgiving 2035.

- And Uncle Sam has the cheeriest news of all: a peak year of 2037 forecast by the Department of Energy.


So who do you think has the most accurate prediction?




posted on Apr, 10 2005 @ 09:15 PM
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as posted by Simulacra
So who do you think has the most accurate prediction?

First, don't mind me, cause like yourself, we are probably hitting too much of that "kill" that was insinuated by truthseeka....


But seriously, some experts have stated that world oil production peaked in 2000.
Hubbert's Peak

Personally, and this is mostly my own subjective observation(s), I think that Michael Lynch is pretty close to being accurate. My reasoning is that he knows that Peak and a oil crash are fast approaching, but does not dare to pin a 'exact time or date.' I think realistically, one cannot place an 'exact date and time' for all factors can vary or have probable chance to. If this 'probability' is true, then placing or giving an 'exact date and time' would amount to be like predicting when the anti-christ was going to show himself or when Christ was going to return, or when the Rapture was going to take place, or when the US was going to collapse, etc.



Energy consultant Michael Lynch maintains that there's no peak in sight for "the next 20 or 30 years."

I'll go with this one.
Debunking the Hubbert Model





seekerof

[edit on 10-4-2005 by Seekerof]



posted on Apr, 10 2005 @ 09:41 PM
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Originally posted by Seekerof
But seriously, some experts have stated that world oil production peaked in 2000.


Hubbert predicted that Oil peaked sometime in 1970, the 1980 backlash that was felt pretty roughly was the first sign of decline in the Oil Market. But egh...Have any more of that 'kill'? I sure could use some.



 
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