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The upcoming China-Taiwan-US Conflict

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posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 03:35 PM
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If China attacks Taiwan, the US will not do anything except "condemn" them. We're banking on the fact that our threats of defending Taiwan will be enough to stave off any potential Chinese invasion. If push comes to shove, the US will back down. Not out of fear of the Chinese, but out of fear of entering another "Vietnam-esque" conflict where, in the eyes of the majority of the public, we have nothing to gain and shouldn't be there.

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Cutwolf]




posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 06:06 PM
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Originally posted by Cutwolf
If China attacks Taiwan, the US will not do anything ... out of fear of entering another "Vietnam-esque" conflict where, in the eyes of the majority of the public, we have nothing to gain and shouldn't be there.


The US does arguably have something to gain by defending Taiwan. Maintaining the status quo in the region is good for the U.S. both militarily and economically. They get to buy cheap goods from China, sell weapons to Taiwan, and keep China's military focused on island takeover and medium-range missile production. If the CCP takes over Taiwan, they will then have a much stronger foothold in the pacific, and may start to turn their attention to their other grudges, like Japan for instance.

The US & China military spending comparisons are interesting. The US does spend more than China, but one question is how much of that cash is used effectively? How much is wasted on dubiously effective money-pit projects like the NMD.

Missile Defense Program Beset By Rising Costs, Budget Shortfalls: Audit
US missile defense programs are beset by rising costs and budget shortfalls that are likely to grow worse in the coming years, an audit by a congressional agency warned Thursday.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) said Missile Defense Agency was 370 million dollars over budget last year, which resulted in work being deferred until new funding could be raised this year.



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 09:32 AM
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i have a quick ? and it probably sounds really dumb, But Japan is a much much smaller country then the US is and Japans military is small compared to what the US would could throw at china, so my question is how much could Japan really help in a Chinese US conflict, and if Japan was allowed to revamp it army about how much more stuff would the have then compared to what they have now??



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 09:38 AM
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Originally posted by wecomeinpeace

Originally posted by Cutwolf
If China attacks Taiwan, the US will not do anything ... out of fear of entering another "Vietnam-esque" conflict where, in the eyes of the majority of the public, we have nothing to gain and shouldn't be there.


The US does arguably have something to gain by defending Taiwan. Maintaining the status quo in the region is good for the U.S. both militarily and economically. They get to buy cheap goods from China, sell weapons to Taiwan, and keep China's military focused on island takeover and medium-range missile production. If the CCP takes over Taiwan, they will then have a much stronger foothold in the pacific, and may start to turn their attention to their other grudges, like Japan for instance.

The US & China military spending comparisons are interesting. The US does spend more than China, but one question is how much of that cash is used effectively? How much is wasted on dubiously effective money-pit projects like the NMD.

Missile Defense Program Beset By Rising Costs, Budget Shortfalls: Audit
US missile defense programs are beset by rising costs and budget shortfalls that are likely to grow worse in the coming years, an audit by a congressional agency warned Thursday.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) said Missile Defense Agency was 370 million dollars over budget last year, which resulted in work being deferred until new funding could be raised this year.




I understand they do have something to gain, but the majority of the public does not. Face it, the majority of the public is uneducated. They'll see us defending tiny Taiwan against mammoth China and think we're out of our minds.



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 10:31 AM
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Originally posted by motionknight

Originally posted by rogue1
IIf the Chinese are defeated over Taiwan this will just make them redouble thier efforts in the future. Losing face is unacceptable and they have very long memories.

I believe that when China is sufficiently capable they will exact some type of revenge from Japan for what had transpired in WW2 and the years before.


Revenge!!lol, why are all americans so subjective about geo-politics??
most opinions here are really pathetic!


lol ok and you are speaking from what experience ? As I have mentioned in other posts I travel to China at least once a year for business, I think it's fair to say I know a bit about what I'm talking about.

PS. I'm not American.



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 10:53 AM
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I understand they do have something to gain, but the majority of the public does not. Face it, the majority of the public is uneducated. They'll see us defending tiny Taiwan against mammoth China and think we're out of our minds.


You're right. But I guess it depends how they 'sell' it.

The Taiwan Relations Act is U.S. foreign policy at its best and pretty much obliges the States to defend Taiwan. I sincerely hope that the govt. adheres to it in the case of an attack. If they're willing to defend the oil-rich fat-cats of Kuwait, they have no excuse to not defend the US-friendly ree people of Taiwan.

[edit on 2005/4/9 by wecomeinpeace]



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 06:41 PM
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Originally posted by zakattack
i have a quick ? and it probably sounds really dumb, But Japan is a much much smaller country then the US is and Japans military is small compared to what the US would could throw at china, so my question is how much could Japan really help in a Chinese US conflict, and if Japan was allowed to revamp it army about how much more stuff would the have then compared to what they have now??




posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 07:25 PM
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Japan has been quietly re-militarizing over the past decade. They are not as weak as you would think.
Japanese Militarization and the Bush Doctrine

I'm no military expert, but I would expect that Japan would be extremely useful as a launching point for the airforce and navy. Since Japan's military development has largely concentrated on defense, the country is now a bristling porcupine and would be a perfect haven for US forces. Combine that with the offensive might of the US pacific fleet and you have a very strong combination. Also Guam Island probably has radar and signal installations. Taiwan + Guam + Japan... Aviationally and navally inferior China would have to get in quick, otherwise they'd be ****ed.

[edit on 2005/4/9 by wecomeinpeace]



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 07:37 PM
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Realisticaly, I think it's not likely that China will confront Taiwan militarily unless Taiwan does something like declare independnece, etc. There are people as well as political parties in Taiwan that want to rejoin with mainland China, their only complaint is that the government in China is authoritarian and lacking in human rights. I think the best bet for the CCP would be to become more democratic and be more sensitive of human rights, which they already are doing although at a slow pace.

It's irrational for China to be the initiator of a possible China-Taiwan conflict. They have the option of having the Taiwanese rejoin mainland willfully. All they need to do is to satisfy the demands of those Taiwanese that do wish to rejoin mainland.

For the CCP there is absolutely no need to rush in this matter, they can take as long as they want to get Taiwan to reunify. Nobody said "if we don't take Taiwan by 2008 then it's game over therefore we must invade them ASAP!" A military confrontation will be messy, chaotic, and damaging to relationships with other countries, as well as degrade the opinion of the Taiwanese towards the CCP. A civilised approach like the one I just mentioned will have none of those faults.

[edit on 9-4-2005 by Taishyou]



posted on Apr, 9 2005 @ 09:14 PM
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Originally posted by Mr Carburetor

Originally posted by Seekerof
True, true, sminkeypinkey.

The concern in this case is proximity and projection of power to and within a region.

In the case of China and Taiwan, China holds the cards.
China would have to likely consider a Japan [being seen as a regional influence and military power] and US joint [7th Fleet, bases in Japan, and Philippines] response.

IMHO, China stills holds sway as they have the proximity and projection of power advantage.




seekerof


Exactly. And with the right timed initial strike, China could most likely take Taiwan. However they would not be in the same league if an Allied US, Japan, Aussie and many other nations advance would take place. Its a battle of of the sea and the allies win that hands down with all the appropriate surgical strikes to hamper any Chinese counter. As some have said, the Chinese have an enormous man army, and that would all be greatly effective......only if they all had flying carpets and hand gernades. However projecting that military out to sea against a superior alliance of the worlds elite naval and air forces is just not reality. I think most of us agree on this.

Carburetor

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Mr Carburetor]

the chinese will deploy there troops in unconventional way sthat being underwater transport from subs to ocean crawlers how do i know thats another topic



posted on Apr, 11 2005 @ 11:51 AM
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Originally posted by Taishyou
For the CCP there is absolutely no need to rush in this matter, they can take as long as they want to get Taiwan to reunify. Nobody said "if we don't take Taiwan by 2008 then it's game over therefore we must invade them ASAP!" A military confrontation will be messy, chaotic, and damaging to relationships with other countries, as well as degrade the opinion of the Taiwanese towards the CCP. A civilised approach like the one I just mentioned will have none of those faults.


I am inclined to agree with this thought considering that China has much to lose if the Taiwan disagreement escalates. I am sure that there are those in her military who are hawkish and those in her government who know that a rift between any of the involved nations would have dramatic effects on their economy.

The world situation now is that all countries have symbiotic relationships. A so called "war" is difficult to mount unless you are regaining economic losses from countries who are no longer your trading partners.

I believe that one must follow the money to find the truth.

What would we do if we were them? Say, for instance, that Iraq decided to stop trading in US Dollars. Would it be worth going in and cleaning house to get them back on the "dollar team?" I would imagine so. We would do just about anything so that we could enjoy our cable TV, cheap gas, SUVs, shopping malls, our life of abundance.

Now, in that line of thinking, if China was being hurt economically by Taiwan, it would make sense for them to put an end to the experiment... quickly. but until such time, it will merely be on their wishlist and they will not provoke anything.

Just my two cents on the matter.



posted on Apr, 11 2005 @ 06:53 PM
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what exactly is tawians stance? are they looking or currently going through the motions to become independant?



posted on Apr, 11 2005 @ 09:36 PM
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Taiwan considers themselves independant.

I don't think China will attack Taiwan. They aren't that stupid. A surprise air and missile attack would have limited success, but they would never land troops en masse and secure Taiwan.

China has poor relations with Russia, India, and Japan. They are surrounded by enemies.

China doesn't have the numbers or the quality to stand up to the Coalition that will be formed to defend Taiwan.

Also, take a look at China's past history. They have had their @ss kicked for thousands of years. They had to build the great wall to keep people from coming in to their country and kicking their @ss and even that failed! Japan took them out in WWII. The Chinese people lack the determination that the Japanese and Russians have and that is thier greatest weakness.



posted on Apr, 11 2005 @ 10:03 PM
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Originally posted by PeanutButterJellyTime
Taiwan considers themselves independant.

I don't think China will attack Taiwan. They aren't that stupid. A surprise air and missile attack would have limited success, but they would never land troops en masse and secure Taiwan.

China has poor relations with Russia, India, and Japan. They are surrounded by enemies.

China doesn't have the numbers or the quality to stand up to the Coalition that will be formed to defend Taiwan.

Also, take a look at China's past history. They have had their @ss kicked for thousands of years. They had to build the great wall to keep people from coming in to their country and kicking their @ss and even that failed! Japan took them out in WWII. The Chinese people lack the determination that the Japanese and Russians have and that is thier greatest weakness.


i dont know what to say about that, China has 1/4 of the worlds population, China has the ability to force people into the military so in other words you would have to get 1/4 of the world to fight 1/4 of the world and china didnt exactly spend the money on there military then like they do now, And China,Russian relations are pretty good,and China-India relations are getting a little better,

All i know is Dubya better start making friends again with EU Cuz if crap hits the fan with China, US could not keep china out of taiwan Forever



posted on Apr, 11 2005 @ 11:49 PM
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While I don't doubt that if the US were able to project her full force that China would lose, I do realize that the US can't project her full force (due to having to defend several other regions) and that China would probably win in a Taiwan conflict.

Factors one must consider:

* China has anywhere from 100 million - 300 million men fit for military service. That's about 100-300 times the size of the Nazi military.
* US troops are already stationed in various parts of Europe, M. East, and S. Korea. Retracting our forces from various parts of the world will have immediate consequences (notably destabilization in many areas). Some tyrant may sieze power in Iraq again for all we know.
* The next problem with retracting troops is regrouping. If you just pull out troops and send them to invade ASAP, they will arrive in small waves that can be quickly annihilated rather than a full force. The time it would take to regroup could be just enough time for China to possibly go on offensive and maybe attack Japan.
* Russia is on good terms with China politically (having already settled border disputes), economically (Russia sells China tons of military hardware), and militarily (they have an alliance to counter US hegemony). Russia also recognizes China's sovereignty over Taiwan, and probably wouldn't hesitate to fight their old rival, the US.
* China's technology isn't behind when it comes to missile technology. They have enough cruise missiles to remove unwanted threats for a limited time.
* North Korea will probably ride off China's momentum (once they strike Taiwan) and invade South Korea. North Korea has one of the largest militaries in the world and would require a huge amount of concentration of US forces. Keep in mind that the US never beat North Korea.
* Declaring war on China is economic suicide for most nations.



posted on Apr, 12 2005 @ 01:26 AM
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Ok having served in the U.S. Navy on an Aircraft carrier stationed in Japan, and having to go and sit off the coast of Taiwan when China made some threats back in 96 or 97. I can say that the U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid in a heart beat. I remember we werent supposed to go back out to sea for another two months, then we woke up and were told we are leaving tommorrow. Every other ship (including Japan's NSDF) got under way and headed to Taiwan at top speed. As for the Peoples Army Navy as China's Navy is called, they aren't the best in the world, and most of there ships are old. Now they do have some new subs, those could be a problem, but NO carrier battle group ever goes out to sea with out a sub protecting the battle group. As far as China's ability to move troops to Taiwan well there amphib ships are almost all from the 60's. There best bet would be to use commerical airline planes to move in the bulk of there troops. Now do I think China, Taiwan, and the U.S. are ever going to go to blows. Doubtful, look who buys a lot of China's goods. The good ole U.S.A. So no China will huff and puff but they wont try and blow Taiwan's house down, so to speak.



posted on Apr, 12 2005 @ 06:39 PM
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Originally posted by GlobalDisorder
what exactly is tawians stance? are they looking or currently going through the motions to become independant?


Here's a poll result I found on some site


On behalf of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), the Elections Study Center of National Chengchi University conducted a public opinion survey April 23-25 on a broad range of issues relating to Taiwan-China relations. Coming one month after the presidential election, the survey sample consisted of 1,083 adult ROC citizens, with a 2.98-percent margin of error. Of the 11 questions in the survey, two dealt directly with the sovereignty issue.

One of them asked respondents to choose the best of six policy positions for Taiwan's political status vis-a-vis China. The percentages for the various options were: unify as soon as possible, 2.0 percent; maintain the status quo and eventually move toward unification, 9.8 percent; maintain the status quo and decide upon independence or unification depending upon conditions, 40.0 percent; maintain the status quo indefinitely, 13.0 percent; maintain the status quo and eventually move toward independence, 15.5 percent; declare independence as soon as possible, 3.3 percent; and no answer, 10.2 percent.


The majority of them are undecided (want to remain at "status quo," meaning they don't want things to change)

My bet is they're afraid of the CCP, which is authoritarian and lacking in human rights, not because they're not Chinese, which they are.

Who are the Taiwanese
The only people on Taiwan who did not come from the land now known as PRC are the Malasyan and Polynesian natives which accounts for about 2% of the population on Taiwan. (Also a small percent of foreigners from other countries). The two major groups in Taiwan are the Hoklo (70%) and Hakka (10% - 15%). Both are sub-groups of the Han, which is the ethnic majority of China. All of them came over to this island from the mainland.

The problem though is that the main groups that arrived on Taiwan did so a very long time ago, and it's mostly during times when the mainland China was a mess and had little authority over the island. E.g., the first wave of Chinese immigrants arrived on Taiwan under the Ming Dynasty because the mainland was invaded by the Manchus (marking the beginning of Qing dynasty on mainland). The Qing dynasty did not rule Taiwan until it one day decided to conquer it, but soon Taiwan got conquered by the Japanese and fell under Japanese rule. The Japanese released their rule on Taiwan following their defeat in 1945, making the island orphaned again. Throughout most of Taiwanese history, the island was ruled either by mainland governments in exile, by foreign invaders. Or orphaned.

In 1949, the CCP reunited China and got it out of a century of chaos, and restored its border and control to what it was when the Qing dynasty began (and a bit more)(which makes this China the biggest one in its history), save for Taiwan, which was not under mainland rule for all the time that China was in dischord. The KMT, which was defeated by the CCP, escaped to Taiwan and imposed their rule there (and they did so very brutally too).

For the Taiwanese, it's pretty awkward to be neglected by the mainland for so long, then suddenly some corrupted and brutal party in exile from mainland came over and set up a new government. Even more awkward is how the party that defeated the stranger KMT is now also eyeing the neglected island. As time passed the KMT softened up their rule over the island and allowed the island to choose their own government which they did (became democratic), so it's double the awkwardness that the CCP, an authoritarian government, suddenly wants the neglected island to be under their control.

That's probably the driving force behind Taiwan's independence movement. Though almost all Taiwanese are Chinese settlers from mainland China, they've been neglected by the mainland while they get pushed around by foreigners and brutal exile parties from mainland and now they're pretty mad and suspicious of people from outside the island, especially the authoritraian CCP, so some of them decided they want to become independent. Nevertheless, there still are people who favour to give reunion a chance because after all they're Chinese.

[edit on 12-4-2005 by Taishyou]



posted on Apr, 12 2005 @ 07:10 PM
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Taishyou

you have described the situation quite well

Most people who support independence are what they call original province people, meaning people who migrated to Taiwan from the mainland several generations ago. They were quite brutally oppressed by the Chinese KMT when Chiang ran to Tiawan. A large number of original province people really hate the KMT, which even today is in name a Chinese party. When the people gained rights to elect their leaders, they remembered what had happened to them and elected the KMT out of power. Nevertheless, KMT only lost the presidency by 0.2% and still holds the most seats in the parliament. Almost everybody in Taiwan hates CCP and no one would ever accept an authoritarian state. Many original province people support independence because from their point of view, a Chinese party (KMT) came to Taiwan and estabilished an opressive government. Today, another Chinese party may do the same and they don't want that to happen.

However, a large number of people in Taiwan still think they are both Chinese and Taiwanese. And most outside province people (whose ancesters came around the time of the civil war) still support the KMT which is trying very hard to warm relationships with the PRC as seen from the recent high level visits.

Even a friend of mine, who is an original province person and supports Taiwan independence, think that he is both Chinese and Taiwanese and would love to see a united China if she ever becomes democratic.



posted on Apr, 12 2005 @ 07:22 PM
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Taiwan will be taken on the barter table. As we have rehashed this time and time again. China has no tactical advantage in taking the island by force. It will be an eventual negotiation of which ultimately Taiwan will have to cave to the pressure of mother mainland China.

The military build up is just part of the "show".

Oh and as for the US, we will do nothing as the whole event will have been orchestrated by the Taiwaneese people and this will be something that the "will" of the people have requested.

So that way the US does not look weak or look like we dont care for not intervening. China knows that eventually Taiwan will submit, whether this year or 20 years from now. China can wait.



[edit on 12-4-2005 by robertfenix]



posted on Apr, 13 2005 @ 07:47 AM
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US and China don't wan't an armed conflict. Chinese economy is 3 times smaler than US's so it's too weak so support such escapade plus they have inferior weapon tech. Those to economys will be equal arround 2025 if the China grows at that rate. On the other hand China bought a large portion of US trade deficit.

Quite an ackward situation. US has a gun to China head and China got the US by the balls.

Japanese are a variable in this equation. They are hungry for Chinas natural resouces and ambitious to become military superpower in Pacific like before WWII. And US might use this as a leverage against China.

IMO the people of Taiwan are mostly Chinese so they belong to mainland.
This is Chinese internal matter.
People who lived in Hong Kong haven't lost much of the rights they had before UK returned it to China.



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