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The upcoming China-Taiwan-US Conflict

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posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 09:36 PM
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I have been thinking for quite some time about the militarization of China and what it means for the future of foreign policy. Currently the United States is involved in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as tasked with the War of Terror. All the while China is quietly building a war machine. While I am not going to say that a Chinese invasion is imminent, what I am saying is that China is becoming a problem for US military strategists.

We all realize that China Views Taiwan as a break away province and views the US Treaty with them as a “Security Threat”. The bad news is that the tension is growing. Early in March China passed a law that authorized the use of military force if Taiwan attempted to become independent. Apparently, China has also been engineering their military for the weak links in the American military. So where does this put the US?

IMO, Between a Rock and a Hard Place. It seems almost inevitable now that at some point in the future there will be a conflict between Taiwan and China. Even though most analysts agree China would lose in open war against the US, as it stands right now a Chinese assault on Taiwan would be over before the US has a chance to intervene. So I see a few options in this battle that if employed could actually lead to a future World War.

Option 1

Allow Japan to re-militirize Japan and China hate each other and Japan is the US’s greatest ally in Eastern Asia but, doing so would more than likely cause China to militarize at an even greater rate and maybe even cut off all diplomatic relations and may even ally with North Korea and possibly Iran, maybe just maybe Russia.

Option 2

Heavily Fortify Taiwan with US military Not sure if this is a great option or not because the US may just put units in Taiwan and have them wiped out anyways. This also has the possibility of leading to increased Chinese militarization.

Option 3

Move Troops into India, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan Not even sure if this is feasible. India probably will not agree because we just sold jets to Pakistan. Not Sure about the other two. This also could lead to greater Chinese militarization and possibly a greater problem.

In the end I don’t have an iron clad solution to the Problem but if the US just does nothing to counter this upcoming problem they will be sorry in the end.


[edit on 7-4-2005 by BlackJackal]




posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 10:41 PM
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All the US needs to do is that when there is tension, move about three carriers right by Taiwan. Even Chinese officials admitted that they could take one carrier at most before the US takes the Chinese down. Also you have to remember that with the expection of a few newer designs, most of the Chinese military is composed of tanks and such from the 50s and 60s. Those are the numbers weapons.



posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 10:47 PM
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The only Problem with the Carriers getting next to Taiwan is the fact that China now has several subs in it's aresonal and would have to take care of the subs before they could move a carrier into position and by that time the invasion may be over.



posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 11:27 PM
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Hopefully this situation will be solved in a civilised manner. There are union parties in Taiwan that favour reunification of the island with the mainland, and quite a number of Taiwanese also want to reunify with the mainland. The only problem they see is China's authoritarian government and lack of human rights. I would say China needs to take care of those two issues before thinking about taking Taiwan. The CCP is slowly becoming more democratic and more sensitive of human rights, as well as more socialist (even capitalist sometimes) and away from Stalinist communism. They need to continue in this direction and probably with a faster pace in the near future, if they want to be trusted by the Taiwanese. I definitely hope they don't stall or worse, go backwards. That was the reason the protesters showed up during the 1989 Tian An Meng Massacre, because the CCP decided to slow down reform.

[edit on 7-4-2005 by Taishyou]



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 06:15 AM
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IIf the Chinese are defeated over Taiwan this will just make them redouble thier efforts in the future. Losing face is unacceptable and they have very long memories.

I believe that when China is sufficiently capable they will exact some type of revenge from Japan for what had transpired in WW2 and the years before.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 01:19 PM
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I honestly don't think at this point there is any way to avoid a future confrontation with China and I think the US's best bet is to allow, and promote, the militirization of Japan.

What is everyones thoughts on this?



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 01:26 PM
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Originally posted by BlackJackal
I have been thinking for quite some time about the militarization of China and what it means for the future of foreign policy.



All the while China is quietly building a war machine.


- Jayzuss talk about 'projection'.


Perhaps a little look at the comparitive military budgets would be in order?

I think you'll find it's not China bloating out the 'defence' budget like there is no tomorrow.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 01:33 PM
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IIRC the chinese cosatl defence forces can deal with 2 or 3 CBG`s - any more then they`ll go nuclear



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 01:42 PM
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You have to look at it in relative terms sminkey, China puts a lot more of its GDP into the military compared to the US and since their economy is growing exponentially then so their ability to spend ever more will only get stronger. The US economy is growing too but it cant possibly expand as fast as China's so we have China spending more each year while the US is building a huge trade deficit and cannot even afford its present budget indefinatly.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 01:50 PM
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Actually as a proportion of GDP china's defence budget is lower than the US.

This is only the official budget however... i'm assuming real spending is closer



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:10 PM
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Originally posted by sminkeypinkey
Perhaps a little look at the comparitive military budgets would be in order?

I think you'll find it's not China bloating out the 'defence' budget like there is no tomorrow.


Well this is what we think we know about China's Military. This is all pretty much guess work since China doesn't disclose this information and if you don't believe me search the web of check The Military Balance 2001-2002.

www.nationmaster.com...

This is the US

www.nationmaster.com...

This is a list of the top Military Spenders in the world

www.nationmaster.com...

Now I want you to notice something the military spending by the US is $953.01 per person and the US comes in at number 3. China seems way far off at number 79 spending only $43.44 per person but you have to consider two more factors to see the whole picture, the Budget expenditures by each country and population.

The Population of the US is 290,342,554 people which means the US spends a total of $276,699,357,387.54 on military

The Population of China is 1,286,975,468 people which means China spends a total of $55,906,214,329.92 on military

Now that's alot closer than the per person numbers isn't it? Now lets look at how much money each country has to spend.

The US has a total budget of $2.052 Trillion Dollars meaning that military spending accounts for 13.5% of the total budget.

China has a total budget of $267.1 Billion Dollars meaning that military spending accounts for 21.0% of the total budget.

So overall China has far less money but they are putting more of it into the military and that is just from what we think we know.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:26 PM
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Originally posted by BlackJackal
I honestly don't think at this point there is any way to avoid a future confrontation with China and I think the US's best bet is to allow, and promote, the militirization of Japan.

What is everyones thoughts on this?


Agreed. Having an effective militarized Japan would put the alliance of the US and Japan at a huge advantage both Technologically and economically. Hell the US and Japan are basically integrated with each other. The projection and funding of a prolonged war with china is a win win situation. However without taking the necessary pro-active moves, China stands a much better chance at taking Taiwan back before the US could fully counter. Its all gonna be a big damn chess game.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:35 PM
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BlackJackal:


Allow Japan to re-militirize Japan and China hate each other and Japan is the US’s greatest ally in Eastern Asia but, doing so would more than likely cause China to militarize at an even greater rate and maybe even cut off all diplomatic relations and may even ally with North Korea and possibly Iran, maybe just maybe Russia.

Already happening.
Japan has been actively re-militarizing.
There are many Army, Navy, and Air Force projects and procurements taking place.
Btw, the Japanese have the ability and capability to build numerous nuclear devices in relatively short order, if circumstances required so.

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Heavily Fortify Taiwan with US military Not sure if this is a great option or not because the US may just put units in Taiwan and have them wiped out anyways. This also has the possibility of leading to increased Chinese militarization.

Won't happen, period.
The US is commited to an independent Taiwan, but that policy is subject to change, depending on circumstances.
The US won't place units in Taiwan, but what the US will do, is sell Taiwan US military hardware and equipment.


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Move Troops into India, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan Not even sure if this is feasible. India probably will not agree because we just sold jets to Pakistan. Not Sure about the other two. This also could lead to greater Chinese militarization and possibly a greater problem.

Not feasible or doable.
This should be out of the total equation.
To top it off, India is secure with its own ability to defend and wage war, if necessary. US troops/units would not be permitted [for deployment, etc], and have not since WWII.






seekerof

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Seekerof]



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:43 PM
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I would think that the most likely senario would be that China would take Taiwan initially. And IF, an alliance of nations inteded to protect Taiwan's independance, they would be forced to drive China back out of Taiwan and re-establish it as an independant nation.

Here is another question to throw out in which relates to the above senario. If China did take and control Taiwan, should and would an alliance of nations attempt to re-establish an inependant Taiwan?

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Mr Carburetor]



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:46 PM
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The US and Japan, and maybe Australia, are already commiited to protecting Taiwan.
Japan, US to declare Taiwan a mutual security concern Update: China expresses "serious concern"




seekerof



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 02:51 PM
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You can play with numbers all you like but the fact remains that the USA outspends almost every other military budget combined.

The attempt by some in the USA to hold China up to the USA as a kind of 'Soviet threat mk2' was quickly dropped even by Bush and Co as it is so patently ludicrous.

(BTW a couple of years of high growth and consequent increased military spending is no substitute for the several decades worth of infrastructure and R&D the US has.....especially as China has heavy man-power and much of that seemingly impressive increase in spending will simply be to better feed, shelter and pay their men under arms.)

Sorry, still no cigar.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 03:02 PM
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True, true, sminkeypinkey.

The concern in this case is proximity and projection of power to and within a region.

In the case of China and Taiwan, China holds the cards.
China would have to likely consider a Japan [being seen as a regional influence and military power] and US joint [7th Fleet, bases in Japan, and Philippines] response.

IMHO, China stills holds sway as they have the proximity and projection of power advantage.




seekerof



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 03:07 PM
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Originally posted by rogue1
IIf the Chinese are defeated over Taiwan this will just make them redouble thier efforts in the future. Losing face is unacceptable and they have very long memories.

I believe that when China is sufficiently capable they will exact some type of revenge from Japan for what had transpired in WW2 and the years before.


Revenge!!lol, why are all americans so subjective about geo-politics??
most opinions here are really pathetic!



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 03:14 PM
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Hello motionknight.
With all due respect, consider what you have implied:


most opinions here are really pathetic!


Bear with me here for a sec, for I mean you no disrespect, but your opinion would have been greatly appreciated if you felt as you have mentioned.
We may not all agree with what all is mentioned or said, but in the manner befitting a "new" me, everyones imput [thoughts and opinions] is/are valid.

Please, we all would be interested in hearing your thought and/or opinion to this topic.








seekerof

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Seekerof]



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 03:18 PM
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Originally posted by Seekerof
True, true, sminkeypinkey.

The concern in this case is proximity and projection of power to and within a region.

In the case of China and Taiwan, China holds the cards.
China would have to likely consider a Japan [being seen as a regional influence and military power] and US joint [7th Fleet, bases in Japan, and Philippines] response.

IMHO, China stills holds sway as they have the proximity and projection of power advantage.




seekerof


Exactly. And with the right timed initial strike, China could most likely take Taiwan. However they would not be in the same league if an Allied US, Japan, Aussie and many other nations advance would take place. Its a battle of of the sea and the allies win that hands down with all the appropriate surgical strikes to hamper any Chinese counter. As some have said, the Chinese have an enormous man army, and that would all be greatly effective......only if they all had flying carpets and hand gernades. However projecting that military out to sea against a superior alliance of the worlds elite naval and air forces is just not reality. I think most of us agree on this.

Carburetor

[edit on 8-4-2005 by Mr Carburetor]



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