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Peak Oil and the end of civilization?

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posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 08:46 PM
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Originally posted by Blobber
Deus EX,

There has always been international trade. Thousands of years ago they did it with sailships, horses etc.


Yes, but hundreds of years ago, the people weren't dependent on foreign food. It's going to be more than a depression. You won't have industry, or thinkers...because it's hard to think or produce stuff or make your clothes when you're slowly starving to death.

DE




posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 08:48 PM
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For those who may not know...Canada is not part of the United States...yet.

What size spoon were you intending to stir the pot with there, masque?
I saw no point in this comment, but apparently you did....

----------

The point of it is this... (regardless of the fact that there is 18 times the cost of extraction for the oil sands) the interest China shows in making a deal with Ralph Klien for Syncrude sweet oil conflicts directly with the overwhelming economic alliance with the United States.

There already is a deep divide between the west and Ottawa because of the National Energy Program (concocted during the 70's). As the shuffling for position over this huge resource becomes more intense, politics are going to play a major part, and that's what scares me. There's sure to be a reluctance from the Klein government to agree with deals the Government of Canada wishes to make.

The way I read the situation, the renewed interest will fuel an already loud lobby for seperation.

And here we thought Quebec was going to split this country in two...



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 08:53 PM
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Thank you for the clarification, masqua.
Much appreciated and the separation issue is surely one I had not considered though I had read and heard of such a movement.

Thank you.






seekerof

[edit on 6-4-2005 by Seekerof]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:03 PM
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Originally posted by DeusEx

Originally posted by Blobber
Deus EX,

There has always been international trade. Thousands of years ago they did it with sailships, horses etc.


Yes, but hundreds of years ago, the people weren't dependent on foreign food. It's going to be more than a depression. You won't have industry, or thinkers...because it's hard to think or produce stuff or make your clothes when you're slowly starving to death.

DE



Not a problem, each country can make her own food again. The fact that some countries do not have agriculture anymore is not because they can't but because it's cheap to import. I mean, come on -agriculture (one of the greatest invention of mankind as it liberate us from being nomadic hunter-gatherers thus allowing us to have fix settlements and civilization) has been invented thousands of years ago. If they can make their own food back then, why can't we as we have wind energy, solar panels, hydrogen and even nuclear reactors?

Well, you will have industry, just like there was "industry" in the ancient times (Carthage glass, silk etc) but not as we perhaps now know. Tinkers and scholar will always be as long there is human kind. Archimedes, Plato, Pythagoras etc etc didn't have what we will have after the oil drys out.

But yes it will be more than a depression as it radically change the socio-economic structure. An example, perhaps in the near future (electric) cars greater than 7 feet aren't allowed anymore unless you are a trucker moving goods. Or because of higher energy costs there will be less entertainment, I am sure in that case Las Vegas won't have so many lights (talk about decadence lol)


Blobber

[edit on 6-4-2005 by Blobber]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:12 PM
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I glad this forum was started & I'm also glad to see that I'm not the only one concerned about peak oil. Everytime in the past that I've posted about peak oil, I kinda felt like Chicken Little.

When energy becomes too expensive to maintain our current way of life--and I think that will be within the next 5 to 10 years--life as we know it is going to change. There are no viable alternative energy sources that can make an impact in our energy supply within the timeframe needed to provide relief from the coming increases in energy prices. Because the focus on alternative energy has just started, these new technologies are years away from becoming consumer-ready, and by that time, our economy and lifestyle will be so drastically changed that it won't make a difference.

The government is finally starting to publicaly recognize that we are at or near peak oil. The U.S. DOE released their 2005 Annual Energy Outlook and it acknowledged that it is more costly to replace the oil we are depleting--and we are currently just about replacing the oil that is being consumed. There are no reserves being created.

The 2005AEO also acknowledges that because of very high energy prices, non-conventional development, such as exploiting oil-sands, LNG, biofuels, and other alternative energy sources are now economically viable (note that this doesn't mean as profitable as traditional oil development.)

But reading into the report further, as well as the National Energy Policy (proposed May 2001 by the Nat'l Energy Policy Development Group, led by Dick Cheney), it is obvious that the oil industry and the government were aware of the coming oil shortage, and plans that have been in the works for quite some time are just starting to become introduced to the public. With messages being placed in the media about conservation and oil shortages, it seems as if the public is being primed to accept the further implementation of these plans.

And these plans will impact our lives drastically. The NEP, which is quite tame as it was devised four years ago before 9/11 and before the public started becoming aware of any issues with oil, called for things such as:

--Drastic increases in new nuclear power plant construction,

--Suspension of environmental standards for coal-plants and a tremendous increase in coal usage,

--Drilling in protected lands--in ANWR and beyond, and

--Adoption of controversial CAFE standards that would initially encourage manufacturers to make only light, fuel-efficient cars (which are less safe), then limit usage of gas-guzzlers, but then eventually ban SUVs and older heavy cars from the roads.

--Aggressive foreign policy that entails preemptive "sanctions" against nations that are suspected of supporting terrorists and building WMDs. Considering that this is in the National Energy Policy, one can only assume that these sanctions will be levied to improve the United States' energy position. (this was in the NEP in May 2001--before 9/11 and declaring war on Iraq...text below) I think that we can be pretty sure that this means that more conflict with oil-rich nations can be expected.


Reviewing and Reforming Sanctions
Economic sanctions include U.S. unilateral sanctions as well as multilateral sanctions, such as United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolutions. Sanctions can advance important national and global security objectives and can be an important foreign policy tool, especially against nations that support terrorism or seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Nevertheless, sanctions should be periodically reviewed to ensure their continued effectiveness and to minimize their costs on U.S. citizens and interests.


And this was just the opening volley as this was proposed when fuel prices were low and peak oil wasn't on the public radar screen. I can only imagine what will be put in effect if oil is $105 a barrel. The end of civilization? No--but as oil is part of the very fabric of our civilization--not only our cars, but our clothes, our food, our homes--restriction on oil use will mark the end of civilization as we know it...

Source material can be found in a prior post on this topic...
www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:20 PM
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Originally posted by Blobber
Not a problem, each country can make her own food again. The fact that some countries do not have agriculture anymore is not because they can't but because it's cheap to import. I mean, come on -agriculture (one of the greatest invention of mankind as it liberate us from being nomadic hunter-gatherers thus allowing us to have fix settlements and civilization) has been invented thousands of years ago. If they can make their own food back then, why can't we as we have wind energy, solar panels, hydrogen and even nuclear reactors?


The issue is that humankind no longer has the space or resources to do such large-scale agriculture anymore, particularly in the west. You can't have both the energy and the agriculture (which will take years to implement). There will be massive depopulation. Industry as a whole will all but cease as people struggle to feed themselves. You can't grow wheat on the I-90. No combines, no modern machinery will serverely crippple yields.

DE



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:35 PM
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All this talk about infrastructure collapse makes me think of the thousands of excellent Mennonite farms spread throughout SW Ontario. They use no electricity nor do they use anything but plain old horsepower to work their fields.

If oil did collapse our society, as seems to be the dominant threat throughout this thread, then I see the beginnings of the new order already in place.

There is no way these farmers could plug the holes in our oil drenched system today, but it is a start.

The demise of the 'family mixed farm' only happened recently, pushed out by factory farming practices. The farms are still there, barns falling into ruin, houses empty...but totally capable of being put back into use.

To me, the bottom line is that we will just pay a lot more for whatever we need.

Inflation...



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:36 PM
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Originally posted by DeusEx

The issue is that humankind no longer has the space or resources to do such large-scale agriculture anymore, particularly in the west. You can't have both the energy and the agriculture (which will take years to implement). There will be massive depopulation. Industry as a whole will all but cease as people struggle to feed themselves. You can't grow wheat on the I-90. No combines, no modern machinery will serverely crippple yields.

DE


Well that's true, but if I am not wrong the end price of oil is far above 150$ per barrel so we will still have some time to reform. Also don't forget that a lot of land is now taken because we have millions and millions of products to produce. These products, factories, stocks, logistic centres take space -and as previously stated I think in that time we will have less products also to have more space.

Regarding effective agriculture I am not really worried as we now have genetically modified food. Also we can always change our diet. Currently when we go to a supermarket we have the choice of thousands and thousands of variation of food. In the medieval times they had only llimited choice and they didn't eat meat everyday (cattle takes a lot of land btw). Perhaps we will have that. Also we can become fishermen again. But also we still have the "equalizer" that's called death. If we are overpopulated, perhaps people will die but human kind will survive as well as it's civilization.

Blobber



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 09:41 PM
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Masque,
Exactly!

Because of higher prices we will have less products to choose from though, but that doesn't matter as human kind will survive.

Blobber



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 10:17 PM
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This should become a serious thread or threads. We've pumped out the easy stuff in the next decade other countries will see the need for deeper exploration and the process will continue. It's highly unlikely that we will see prices much below the $2.00USD mark ever again. This will have nothing to do with politicians, though some may have better foriegn contact with good negotiating power, it's the world demand that will hold up the price. No one is putting the stuff back underground, the process took millions of years so todays forest fodder won't regenerate it. If it's not there now, we won't get it in our lifetimes. What we do have some promiss in is ethanes and other light gases that come from rotting waste products and generates fast, but we already consume large quantities of these light gases for heating and elect. generation.

What we have as alternatives is from several technologies some not yet developed.
* Refractioning current fuels into higher power fuels that produce more energy per quantity used. Requires a renewable source of energy to make refining cheap and efficient as to not reduce the gains.
* Getting a large portion of vehicles to run more efficient, more models available in hybrid and reduced cost electrics where they would serve community needs and have access to cheap electric power such as solar farms providing cover for the vehicles charging below. (Expensive at this time).
* Developing other lines of vehicles that use alternative energies not yet brought into mainstream.
* Expansion of biodiesel production, ongoing and looking promissing.

With an auto sitting in the sun for most of the day at work, covered with photovoltics, you could probably drive serveral miles home each day just on that power alone. As I've said in other posts on the Eco threads, Japan is moving fast to produce entire lines of Hybrids, Americas Big 3 are sitting on their oil soaked butts just teasing us with a few HVs while Toyota and Honda are selling HV's like there's no more oil!

Ford: H-Escapem now for some F150s, Rangers, Freestyles, Focus' and Vans.
GMC: Off in the right direction with the inline system, lets see it in some Tahoes, Envoys, Colorados, Aveos, Impalas and Malibu.
Chrysler: Where is it? Hybrid Ram sounds like a start, HT Cruiser, Neon H, Durango, 300H.

This is a smilly
this is a smilly on crude



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 10:42 PM
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You know, to be quite honest, I could do without our society. We consume rediculous amounts of everything. We have more than once brought the planet near to utter destruction with games of nuclear Russian roulette. We pollute and destroy massive tracks of land and water with our industries. Our children and ourselves grow fat and lethargic due to the various forms of inactive entertainment such as TV, video games, and movies.

I for one, would have absolutely no qualms giving up all the technology and merely have that which is functional... fishing rods, hand tools, books, live music, etc. In fact, this fall I am going to go live in central america to teach english. I'm sure I will have far fewer of the exessive creature comforts to which I've grown accustomed to here in Canada. We don't need any of the junk we spend most of our money on, and I can guarantee that we will be a healthier and more robust people if our society were to implode due to the rising cost of energy. Rome, Egypt, Greece, etc. all lived rich and educated lives without any technology... would that life be so bad? Especially with the enormous wealth of knowledge we now posess.... Notes to self; Don't make water pipes out of lead. Rotating crop fields prevents soil nutrient deprivation. Bring oranges or lemons when travelling long distances in a ship. Do not allow my children to stay over at Michael Jackson's house.... ever.



posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 01:27 AM
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It is certainly true that liquid fossil petroleum (oil) will get substantially more expensive.

There are no more easy to get large reserves of oil left. The fact that in the past, we kept on discovering more (after the then naysayers predicted the end) does not mean that we will continue to do so.

There is a fundamental difference now: we have mapped the planet with sophisticated geophysical sensors. There is no more planet left.

In the 19th century, we kept on discovering more and more elements as chemistry progressed; leading to the triumph of the periodic table. We are not finding any more; only synthesizing ever more unstable nuclei.

We are running out of oil. It will not be the collapse of civilization since we are not going to run out of energy.

There is enough energy and electricity for modern civilization to go around. The central issue is portable hydrocarbons for transportation. There is nothing else with sufficient energy density.

People talk about oil sands, and that's a good thing, but those will not be the primary fuels.
The real fuel will be natural gas, mined and drilled in the conventional way. Now, much of it is wasted and burnt from oil fields, because it was uneconomical to do anything with it.

The difference now is the success of very large scale liquid natural gas and liquid petroleum gas (LNG/LPG) cryogenic tanker ships. Russia is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. North America is running out, but there is still quite a bit left globally.

Oil will be too valuable to burn---it is needed as a chemical feedstock.
Natural gas will be too valuable as transportation fuel to be burnt in electricity plants---we need wind and nukes there.

There is no technology which needs to be invented to run vehicles on natural gas. Spark ignition engines (i.e. gasoline style of today) can run just fine with small tweaks to the fuel lines obviously. The major downside is less cargo room as the CNG (compressed natural gas) containers take more space for the same range.

The future will be CNG powered hybrids, with photovoltaic roof chargers to give
a little extra range. Large scale global LNG commerce will rival today's petroleum commerce. Other alternatives are high efficiency diesel electric hybrids using smaller amounts of expensive petroleum and some biodiesel.

For aircraft, there is no substitute for jet fuel from petroleum. Air travel will be come substantially more expensive, as it once was reserved for the rich and movie stars.



posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 07:18 AM
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Ok im just a little kid, well not as little anymore but they way i look at it is that we are not switching over to hydrogen solar and all that type of cars. i see it that when the oil does run out it will give us a better chance to switch. and for the power issue we go wind power or solar or i know there are some others so ya.
but thats just me. sorry if any of you have posted this same idea i have to go to school ill edit it after.





Hitty out

[edit on 7-4-2005 by hitman132436]



posted on Apr, 7 2005 @ 07:25 AM
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Our whole civilization is based on Cheap Oil.....once there is no longer Cheap oil our civilization will start to decline....

The USA would be better off spending $80 billion a year on alterative energy souces...mass transit....energy conservation......than spending it in Iraq



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 05:55 AM
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Originally posted by edsinger
What if there is plenty of oil and it does replenish itself?


I wouldn't bet my farm on it.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 06:15 AM
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Originally posted by Devans28
You know, to be quite honest, I could do without our society. We consume rediculous amounts of everything. We have more than once brought the planet near to utter destruction with games of nuclear Russian roulette. We pollute and destroy massive tracks of land and water with our industries. Our children and ourselves grow fat and lethargic due to the various forms of inactive entertainment such as TV, video games, and movies.


I second that!_javascript:icon('
')

When you ask your self what do you really need for your survival or modest living is pretty darn less what our society want to sell you.



posted on Apr, 8 2005 @ 08:44 AM
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Many years ago PBS, had an 8 hour special about oil and the oil industry. in this program there was a scientist who sunk holes where the "oil industry" said there would not be oil. he struck oil, and continued to say that the world is full of oil, which it indeed is. this persons research was based not on oil being so much as a fossil fuel but as an abundant form in the solar system, lets not forget the liquid methane on the outer plantets and their moons, and that there is a layer of hydrocarbon in the earth. his drill site was around an acient impact from a meteor, which in his theory cracked the earth and allowed the oil to seep up from its layer. when he drilled low and behold he got oil where others said there would not be any. he went on to suggest that some of the old wells that are now capped may be refilling from this hydrocarbon layer and should be retapped



posted on Apr, 14 2005 @ 10:10 PM
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Originally posted by bigx01 he went on to suggest that some of the old wells that are now capped may be refilling from this hydrocarbon layer and should be retapped


Exactly, go here:

The end of the age of oil? I think not!



posted on Apr, 16 2005 @ 06:04 AM
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the best thing that could happen would be the whole world system collapses.START OVER.yeah billions will die but...................that also is necessary considering there are too many people living on our mother right now.this movement was started some 50 60 plus years ago by corporations.even hitler saw these problems with oil and many other world problems happening in the future and in his insane way he tried to fix some of them.get your(usa) obessessive minds out of oil and materialism/decadence and back into replenishing nature.work for bringing life back on the planet not taking it all off/out of the earth.

[edit on 16-4-2005 by geno]

[edit on 16-4-2005 by geno]



posted on Apr, 16 2005 @ 06:31 AM
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Once again I'm going to "plug" my thread that I wrote a couple days ago which almost nobody seems to take any interest in but me. I find it strange too since it's dealing with a little known and barely spoken of technology that could most likely put an end to all the Fear and/or Future Collapse of Society as a result of the Energy Crisis. It's not some theory either, but is actually proven to work and is starting to expand commercially, with the financial help of some VERY Wealthy Investors.

Take a look:
Thermal Depolymerization is the Energy Crisis Solution by Turning Trash into Treasure
www.abovetopsecret.com...'



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