Peak Oil and the end of civilization?, page 1
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reply posted on 6-4-2005 @ 01:20 PM by cryptorsa1001
The term Peak Oil is somewhat confusing. The term that should be used is Cheap Peak Oil. Earth still has plenty of oil. The cheap oil to produce is on the decline or close to the decline.

The article quoted below is from 2002.
Article

Northwestern Colorado has been viewed for a century as a potential oil treasure. By some calculations, the Piceance (pee’-awnce) Basin alone contains 300 billion barrels of recoverable petroleum, equal to 48 percent of Middle Eastern reserves. Yet no one has been able to extract profitably the keragen, a waxy petroleum, from the shale.




Shell executives think they now will be able to produce shale oil at a cost that can compete with $15-$25 per barrel crude oil. Their proprietary extraction technology uses electricity to heat the oil shale underground. They then pump out the liquid keragen with traditional oil-drilling techniques. This approach still uses water and energy, but not as much as the retorting process, and it leaves a much smaller environmental footprint, Hansen says.



reply posted on 6-4-2005 @ 03:24 PM by DeusEx
Originally posted by marg6043
No..........civilization will not end.


I beg to differ.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I don't see anyone trying to switch the Abrams or T-96 to an electric engine, do you? What about all those developing countries, think they can afford it? Or that we'll tell them how?

DE


reply posted on 6-4-2005 @ 06:14 PM by Seekerof
asposted by masqua
The place is Fort McMurray in Alberta. The patch is called the Oil Sands and it has the potential of 1.6 trillion barrels within the largest hydrocarbon deposit IN THE WORLD.
Charles Ruigrok, spokesman for Syncrude, says "With the decline in more conventional supplies of crude oil, and continued strength in world demand, the oil sands opportunity is coming to the forefront."

Potential is countered by the problems of the high costs to extract. Even you have said so. Found this:

The bad news is that oil derived from these oil sands is extremely financially and energetically intensive to extract and thus suffers from a horribly slow extraction rate. Whereas conventional oil has enjoyed a rate of "energy return on energy invested" - "EROEI" for short - of about 30 to 1, the oil sands rate of return hovers around 1.5 to 1.

Life After the Oil Crash

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For those who may not know...Canada is not part of the United States...yet.

What size spoon were you intending to stir the pot with there, masque?
I saw no point in this comment, but apparently you did....

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The companies involved are Syncrude and Suncor and guess what...the Chinese want to get a deal for 2 million barrels a day from there. In fact, Enbridge is working out a deal with the chinese now to build a $2.5 billion pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver to pump it onto their ships.

Thats interesting in that this is what has been said:

Where to find such a huge amount of capital is largely a moot point because, even with massive improvements in extraction technology, the oil sands in Canada are projected to only produce a paltry 2.2 million barrels per day by 2015.

Life After the Oil Crash

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Something to bear in mind is that the US has huge reserves of shale oil, but suffers from what the Canadians are in extraction and conversion costs:

The huge reserves of oil shale in the American west suffer from similar problems. Although high oil prices have prompted the US government to take another look at oil shale, it is not the savior many people are hoping for.

Life After the Oil Crash

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And you make a great point GrOuNd_ZeRo, but when I did my Russian studies, it was mentioned that the reason that oil is not being taped there [Siberia-on a large scale basis] is because of the sheer costs to do so and because of the isolation and weather. Siberia is no joke. Thats one reason the Russians have left the oil alone there and simply concentrated efforts around the Caspian region.

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One thing to bear in mind, if this Peak Oil is correct and oil is running out, the impact will be worldwide and not limited to simply devastating the US economy. Bet.






seekerof

[edit on 6-4-2005 by Seekerof]



reply posted on 6-4-2005 @ 08:24 PM by Blobber
Deus EX,

There has always been international trade. Thousands of years ago they did it with sailships, horses etc.

You know our current society of abandunce (consumerism) has created this, it has given us prosperity but also a lot of decadence and some other nasty things. With decadence I mean for example that we can choose out of tens of different toiletpapers all made with precious resources. In the past you wore the clothes of your parents, you had only a few and wore it for many years or a life time. Nowadays we have a lot of clothes but only wear it for some months, or a few years and throw it away. Factories are spewing out cars because we have to have the biggest newest models (status symbol). Auto makers know this and on intention they put a new model every 4-6 years, this while the current car can easily last more than a decade. Millions and millions are doing this.

If there will be no more oil, we will still have airplanes (perhaps they are slower), ships, cars/bikes. But the overall production (GDP) may fell because of higher prices of alternative energy. So the products we may choose from is less than we have known in the past, but that's not a problem as we have only to learn how to be less decadent again. In conclusion, human race will adapt and change her socio-economic structure.

Edit: and about tanks lol, they will probably be less armoured and with less firepower and a lot of batteries and perhaps some solar pannel.

Blobber



[edit on 6-4-2005 by Blobber]
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