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Peak Oil and the end of civilization?

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posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 11:38 AM
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Most of us never think about where the gas comes from when we fill up our cars, do we? We assume that the next time we stop by the Chevron station for another tank full, the gas will be there.

In the U.S., we have been fortunate enough to enjoy what others do not - cheap fuel. Yeah, I know, it's hard to see it as cheap when regular is over $2.00/gal, but Europeans have been paying more for years. Because we have relatively cheap fuel, we have learned to squander "fossil fuels" like we'll never run out of the stuff, but the fact of the matter is, we are running out.

This forum has been created to heighten awareness and spur discussion. We hope to make readers sensitive to this issue, what might be the issue of our future. We hope that while you'll not only drive slower, utilize your air conditioning in a prudent manner, and turn out unnecessary lights in the house, but will also look at the world around you in new light. When you turn on the news and see gas prices are inexplicably rising, the War on Terror has spread to yet another oil producing country, and the talking head mentions oil producing countries being at max production, contmplate what will be happening in another 2 decades or so.

Read, contribute, and learn all you can.




posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 12:28 PM
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Originally posted by Thomas Crowne
We assume that the next time we stop by the Chevron station for another tank full, the gas will be there.


Excellent point TC. We live on a single planet. Can we be so foolish to think we will have an infinate amount of fossil fuels here on Earth?

Now I believe, due to knowing people in the industry, that the world oil situation is not so bad as sometimes the media makes out...but still, I cannot argue the point that one day we will run out.

We need to find/use alternate sources. We need to know why the government doesn't push this technology for the "greater good" the same way they went to war and spent billions for the "greater good."



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 01:20 PM
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The term Peak Oil is somewhat confusing. The term that should be used is Cheap Peak Oil. Earth still has plenty of oil. The cheap oil to produce is on the decline or close to the decline.

The article quoted below is from 2002. Article


Northwestern Colorado has been viewed for a century as a potential oil treasure. By some calculations, the Piceance (pee’-awnce) Basin alone contains 300 billion barrels of recoverable petroleum, equal to 48 percent of Middle Eastern reserves. Yet no one has been able to extract profitably the keragen, a waxy petroleum, from the shale.





Shell executives think they now will be able to produce shale oil at a cost that can compete with $15-$25 per barrel crude oil. Their proprietary extraction technology uses electricity to heat the oil shale underground. They then pump out the liquid keragen with traditional oil-drilling techniques. This approach still uses water and energy, but not as much as the retorting process, and it leaves a much smaller environmental footprint, Hansen says.



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 01:51 PM
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Originally posted by Thomas Crowne
Most of us never think about where the gas comes from when we fill up our cars, do we? We assume that the next time we stop by the Chevron station for another tank full, the gas will be there.


We've had it made here in the USA for so long, we take it for granted.

Thomas Crown posted this article on a thread of mine. I thot I'd re-post it here. Take a look. It raises some very serious issues. The time to consider this and plan ahead is NOW.



World oil peaking represents a problem like none other. The political, economic, and social stakes are enormous. Prudent risk management demands urgent attention and early action.
www.peakoil.net...



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 02:00 PM
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Originally posted by Thomas Crowne
In the U.S., we have been fortunate enough to enjoy what others do not - cheap fuel. Yeah, I know, it's hard to see it as cheap when regular is over $2.00/gal, but Europeans have been paying more for years. Because we have relatively cheap fuel, we have learned to squander "fossil fuels" like we'll never run out of the stuff, but the fact of the matter is, we are running out.


This is an excellent thread to have started, TC, thanks.

I'm always struck when I'm in Florida and fill up my Mum's car, on empty the other day @ $2.16 cost $30 tops. My car, here in Toronto has a smaller tank than my Mum's and when I filled up on empty just before I went away cosst me $40 Cdn. The price has gone up $.20 cents a litre since then.

So yeah, gas has been cheap in the U.S. for a long time. As you say, in Europe they've been paying these prices for years. Last time I was in Portugal more than 10 years ago the price was $1.00 a litre.

That's why everyone drives small, fuel-efficient cars.

People are going to have to re-think all the gas-guzzlers in future.

[edit on 6/4/05 by AlwaysLearning]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 02:15 PM
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Originally posted by AlwaysLearning
People are going to have to re-think all the gas-guzzlers in future.


It's pretty sad. Back in the '80's, after all the oil turmoil of the '70's, it seemed we had actually started self-correcting (with greater fuel efficiency standards/cars). Then came the '90's with its explosive economic growth. Because of that, we forgot and allowed our taste in vehicles to become ridiculously decadent.

I'd bet money that half the SUV drivers in my city wouldn't know what to do if they ever actually got off road in them.
It's crazy. How many of them can even afford to fill the tank these days? I've had the same pick up for 10-yrs and I now pay TWICE the amount to fill it up as I did back when I got it.



[edit on 19-09-2003 by EastCoastKid]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 02:15 PM
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Originally posted by Thomas Crowne

In the U.S., we have been fortunate enough to enjoy what others do not - cheap fuel. Yeah, I know, it's hard to see it as cheap when regular is over $2.00/gal, but Europeans have been paying more for years. Because we have relatively cheap fuel, we have learned to squander "fossil fuels" like we'll never run out of the stuff, but the fact of the matter is, we are running out.


Well I am not sure but we must consider both sides of this.


The end of the age of oil? I think not!


What if there is plenty of oil and it does replenish itself?



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 03:04 PM
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I don't believe it'll be the end of technical civilization, it just may be the end of a civilization that depends on fossil fuels as a convenience.

We must remember that we're always developing new ways to power our vehicles and industries.

Have no fear, the fossil fuel scare of today will pass the way of the dinosaurs (no pun intended, well maybe a little).

It's my belief that the oil giants may have inside info on developing technologies that will put a dent in their pockets as soon as it hit's the market. This might be the reason for the sudden surge in prices. To capitalize quickly on a fuel that will become obsolete in the not-so-distant future. Think about it, fossl fuels is nasty to deal with, before and after it's used.

With auto makers doing research in Hydrogen-fuel cells and Toyota and Honda already marketing hybrids, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of hydro-carbon based fuels, which is good for the planet and it's inhabitants.



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 03:09 PM
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OK, I have been hearing about "Peak Oil" for a while I am not an expert, but I see it this way...........it may sound naive to some...............how did we have become so Dependant on oil in earth...........it seems to me that the ones to worry about the oil deficiency should be the same groups that had made a living of oil as a main source of energy.

Our civilization will not end due to oil becoming none existent, I think that other sources of energies will spring all over the globe if oil is to be gone in 50 years or two years.

But taking in consideration how oil has become mostly the preferred source of profit for some elites around the globe they are sure to take over any other sources of energy that will become available in the future.

No..........civilization will not end.



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 03:16 PM
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but how will bush's buddies stay filthy rich ? Its expensive to switch gas stations to electric stations, that might effect the stock price ! (sarc)


the only stumbling block to progress (but its a doozy) is the oil men keep backing and funding candidates for the white house.....and winning....can you say the Halliburton Candidate ????



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 03:24 PM
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Originally posted by marg6043
No..........civilization will not end.


I beg to differ.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I don't see anyone trying to switch the Abrams or T-96 to an electric engine, do you? What about all those developing countries, think they can afford it? Or that we'll tell them how?

DE



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 04:33 PM
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Ah...good old Canada.

The place is Fort McMurray in Alberta. The patch is called the Oil Sands and it has the potential of 1.6 trillion barrels within the largest hydrocarbon deposit IN THE WORLD.
Charles Ruigrok, spokesman for Syncrude, says "With the decline in more conventional supplies of crude oil, and continued strength in world demand, the oil sands opportunity is coming to the forefront."

For those who may not know...Canada is not part of the United States...yet.

The companies involved are Syncrude and Suncor and guess what...the Chinese want to get a deal for 2 million barrels a day from there. In fact, Enbridge is working out a deal with the chinese now to build a $2.5 billion pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver to pump it onto their ships.

Interesting, eh?

The problem is the cost...at the present time, it costs at least 15 times as much to 'steam' the oil out of the grit. But, hey...you won't mind paying a bit more at the pumps will you?



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 05:15 PM
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Originally posted by DeusEx
I beg to differ.


DE


One of the things that made the human race unique and above any other species is the ability to adapt to the situations, we have been adapting to our world and our environment through centuries, we will prevail one more time, and many other times.

Is part of the survival of our species, if we can not deal with oil depletion then something else will come along the way and we will adapt.



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 05:23 PM
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Don't forget Russia's gigantic oil fields! they have COLLOSAL oil fields, esspecially in remote area's like Siberia, the Oil Scare is a farce ladies and gentlemen, to freak you out so you will pay more for oil...



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 06:14 PM
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asposted by masqua
The place is Fort McMurray in Alberta. The patch is called the Oil Sands and it has the potential of 1.6 trillion barrels within the largest hydrocarbon deposit IN THE WORLD.
Charles Ruigrok, spokesman for Syncrude, says "With the decline in more conventional supplies of crude oil, and continued strength in world demand, the oil sands opportunity is coming to the forefront."

Potential is countered by the problems of the high costs to extract. Even you have said so. Found this:


The bad news is that oil derived from these oil sands is extremely financially and energetically intensive to extract and thus suffers from a horribly slow extraction rate. Whereas conventional oil has enjoyed a rate of "energy return on energy invested" - "EROEI" for short - of about 30 to 1, the oil sands rate of return hovers around 1.5 to 1.

Life After the Oil Crash

----------



For those who may not know...Canada is not part of the United States...yet.

What size spoon were you intending to stir the pot with there, masque?
I saw no point in this comment, but apparently you did....

----------



The companies involved are Syncrude and Suncor and guess what...the Chinese want to get a deal for 2 million barrels a day from there. In fact, Enbridge is working out a deal with the chinese now to build a $2.5 billion pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver to pump it onto their ships.

Thats interesting in that this is what has been said:


Where to find such a huge amount of capital is largely a moot point because, even with massive improvements in extraction technology, the oil sands in Canada are projected to only produce a paltry 2.2 million barrels per day by 2015.

Life After the Oil Crash

-----------

Something to bear in mind is that the US has huge reserves of shale oil, but suffers from what the Canadians are in extraction and conversion costs:


The huge reserves of oil shale in the American west suffer from similar problems. Although high oil prices have prompted the US government to take another look at oil shale, it is not the savior many people are hoping for.

Life After the Oil Crash

----------

And you make a great point GrOuNd_ZeRo, but when I did my Russian studies, it was mentioned that the reason that oil is not being taped there [Siberia-on a large scale basis] is because of the sheer costs to do so and because of the isolation and weather. Siberia is no joke. Thats one reason the Russians have left the oil alone there and simply concentrated efforts around the Caspian region.

----------

One thing to bear in mind, if this Peak Oil is correct and oil is running out, the impact will be worldwide and not limited to simply devastating the US economy. Bet.







seekerof

[edit on 6-4-2005 by Seekerof]


pao

posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 06:22 PM
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great idea for a subforum and especially if this does come to pass sooner than expected, this may be a helpful tool in being prepared and what to do



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 06:25 PM
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No, peak oill will not lead to an end of civillization. If the oil drys out we have other forms of energy. Sure, everything may become more expensive but then we just have to be happy with 2 kind of toiletpaper instead of twenty, two brands of Coca Cola instead of six or seven, going on hollidays only once per year instead of two or three, using less big electric/hydrogen car/bike instead of SUV's etc. etc. The social-economic structure will adapt, as always in human history.

There may be a different problem though with peak oil, that is that developing nations will not have the advantages that western nations had: i.e. cheap energy. And that may hinder them in their development, creating more inbalances between rich and poor as the new energy forms in the middle long term are more expensive.

Really disturbing when you now think about it. When it was cheap we all used it in decadence and abandunce, but we forgot our poor future fellow man.


Blobber



[edit on 6-4-2005 by Blobber]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 07:36 PM
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I believe the expression is 'The end is effing nigh.'

The more information I see, the more it looks like the world is headed towards another Dark Age. Blobber, think about international trade. Ship adn airplanes don't move on their own. Combines either. People don't get to work, your precious tanks won't go.

Alternative energy is looking more and more like a case of too little, too late. By 2010, will it even be viable? I guess you can make all the eletric cares you want, but if no one can buy them, what's the point?

DE



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 08:24 PM
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Deus EX,

There has always been international trade. Thousands of years ago they did it with sailships, horses etc.

You know our current society of abandunce (consumerism) has created this, it has given us prosperity but also a lot of decadence and some other nasty things. With decadence I mean for example that we can choose out of tens of different toiletpapers all made with precious resources. In the past you wore the clothes of your parents, you had only a few and wore it for many years or a life time. Nowadays we have a lot of clothes but only wear it for some months, or a few years and throw it away. Factories are spewing out cars because we have to have the biggest newest models (status symbol). Auto makers know this and on intention they put a new model every 4-6 years, this while the current car can easily last more than a decade. Millions and millions are doing this.

If there will be no more oil, we will still have airplanes (perhaps they are slower), ships, cars/bikes. But the overall production (GDP) may fell because of higher prices of alternative energy. So the products we may choose from is less than we have known in the past, but that's not a problem as we have only to learn how to be less decadent again. In conclusion, human race will adapt and change her socio-economic structure.

Edit: and about tanks lol, they will probably be less armoured and with less firepower and a lot of batteries and perhaps some solar pannel.

Blobber



[edit on 6-4-2005 by Blobber]



posted on Apr, 6 2005 @ 08:31 PM
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I was talking with a very informed person the other day on just this matter. So supposedly, there is more oil than we have ever used yet to be drilled. Also, crude oil, the stuff that is drilled, is constantly being replenished, not fast, but still.

This aside, there is no doubt in my mind that fuel efficiancy is rightfully becoming an issue. We have to keep the future in our minds. This we can learn from history.




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