Originally posted by The Vagabond
You seem to know quite a bit more about Japan than I do
Not really, they are a bit complicated as a race. You understand what a paradox is? That is the best description I can give their race. Thanks for the
vote of confidence anyhow!!!!
I can't help wondering just how long Japan will be pacifist though. They do have minor territorial disputes with Russia, China, and I think South
I doubt we will ever see a return to an overt military control of the region by the Japanese. Saying that, a covert control system, if not in place
already as I suspect, is more likely. Anyone interested should research the current dealings of the kenpeitai. These guys were the secret police
during WWII and have been up to a lot of different shenanigans since.
The China East sea carry on (which I believe to be the root cause of the current whinging and saber rattling - nothing to do with obscure textbooks)
is probably the most likely flashpoint at the minute. Though, the countries have so much invested in each other, I wouldn't be too worried about
anything other than slinging words rather than bombs.
The disputes with Russia are not so hot really. Fishing areas and frozen islands. Interestingly enough, Japan and Russia have never actually reached
any form of peace agreement since WWII.
As for South Korea? Sorry, I am slightly ignorant on the subject. Maybe you could direct me towards some information in that regard. North Korea - oh
boy - plenty of shenanigans there. Between the drug running to the NW coast of Japan to the spies flitting in and out of the country, they are always
at some carry on.
what would you think the odds are of them non-militarily trying to assert greater control over claimed islands and finding themselves at odds with a
rival by miscalculation?
Softly, softly catchee monkey. These guys are extremely cautious. A Japanese person do something rash? Doubtful. Any trouble and they will reach a
deal which doesn't see either side lose face behind the scenes. On the Asian side of things at least. Us rash and loud foreigners on the other hand -
pish - no figuring us out, but no area where their would be conflict.
Another thing I can't help wondering is if they might eventually get the idea of moving into Indonesia by way of the Phillipines. Shallow seas
generally mean a good chance for off shore oil development (or am I mistaken?)
Never thought too much about this. I will have to look into it. There is a big connection with the Phillipines here. A lot of development aid cash has
flowed in that direction and I think they may be expecting somebody to return the favour. I have no doubt that the kenpeitai have a few bodies on the
ground down there. But anything that may step on American toes?
Japan may eventually decide that they are sick of America having them by the balls over oil.
Now this is interesting.
IMHO it has nothing to do with oil. There is a big drive on in Japan at the minute to veer away from oil dependance. Hybrid cars, solar energy,
biodiesel, domestic gas turbines for electricity, magnetic generators, all big things here. They are using technology to wean themselves off oil
dependance. They are socially pliant enough as a society to do it as well.
They are none too happy about being dragged into Iraq. Ask any Japanese person and they will talk though gritted teeth about being "America's dog".
I would love to know what it is that the Americans have on them.
I did hear an interesting tale about a Japanese company getting a contract to recycle all the blown up Tanks in Iraq. Vagabond, you seem to have some
knowledge about tanks, is that really economically viable? Enough to
send, unprecedented, a military force abroad to protect the workers?
So what if a really convenient war came along- for instance if Islamic rebels (perhaps with covert aid from Japan) gained control of Indonesia
Interestingly, I have seen a marked increase in muslims coming to the country. Hmmmmm.
Japan saw the opportunity to make a "temporary" under the guise of putting down a threat to regional security? Am I way off base, or would it at
least be theoretically possible?
If they are on the security council and see it as their duty to help secure the area, it would be very plausible. Remember the kenpeitai? We may be
seeing the dominos being set up here. Factor in China's recent belligerence and you could say the Chinese had got a whiff of it and decided to focus
world attention here for a while. Interesting theory.
I recall Caspar Weinberger (Reagan's Secretary of Defense) bringing up the possibility of renewed Japanese expansionism in the near future in the
book The Next War so it's a prospect that interests me a bit.
Back in the day when they didn't have an enemy to justify military spending, before the bright idea of the terrorist boogeyman, perhaps.
If the Japanese were to do it, it would be covert. I will leave you with a real paranoia buzz. What if the bubble economy of the 80's didn't really
burst? What if it was a switch from overt to covert control and ownership? They are not poor, they still hold billions of foreign currencies across
EDIT: Screwed up the quotes. Fixed.
[edit on 11-5-2005 by howmuchisthedoggy]