COVID Collateral: Lockdown's Devastating Effects Examined

Our mayor was on the news this morning discussing the COVID crisis, and the likelihood of more stay-at-home orders to come. I think by now it’s time we took a comprehensive look at the effects that lockdown has had on the health of the nation. Since “health” is a very overarching term, let’s just use the WHO’s definition (one that makes good sense to me):

Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.

www.who.int...
I was planning to flesh out all of this research a bit more, but opted rather to get this info out and ask my friends here to feel free to contribute any ideas or information before I try to write a more complete opinion piece.

Impact on Youth:
Roughly 1.5 million school-aged children are homeless, leaving many of our most vulnerable with no access to school in states requiring online learning. Parents who can’t leave their children unattended at shelters lose work. Slow internet and weak wi-fi affect the lowest income most.
www.npr.org...
Researchers have determined that kids lost on average ⅓-½ a year’s worth of academic gains last spring alone. For many children already behind, this delayed start is absolutely devastating. Some may never recover.
www.nytimes.com...
Lost time learning could result in a 3 percent loss of income over their lifetimes:
www.parents.com...
Student athletes losing key playing/training time
www.ncaa.org...
Social Impact:
Singing in groups linked to good health/improved mental health (along with all of the other proven to be healthy activities we’ve all been missing out on):
www.sciencedaily.com...
Human touch linked to health benefits:
www.npr.org...
Social isolation, loneliness, living alone linked to a rise in early mortality by 26%, 29%, and 32% (respectively).
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...
Links between loneliness and smiling (or lack of seeing smiles):
www.psychologytoday.com...
Health Impact:
Missed cancer diagnoses: 80,000
www.houstonchronicle.com...
Drug overdoses:
www.ama-assn.org...
Suicides on the rise
www.rollcall.com...
Domestic violence homicides have doubled:
www.nbcnews.com...
Loss of employer health coverage 7.7 million, 6.9 million dependents totalling 14.6 million:
www.commonwealthfund.org...
Unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% in Sept... why?:
“Total payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.”
www.bls.gov...
Effects of solitary confinement might be worth checking into/considering (which is defined as “distinguished by living in single cells with little or no meaningful contact to other inmates, strict measures to control contraband, and the use of additional security measures and equipment” and would approximate many people’s circumstances under lockdown):
www.medicalnewstoday.com...
Early death linked to unexpected job loss (particularly among men-- 78%)
www.ehstoday.com...#:~:text=A%20team%20of%20researchers%20at,to %20those%20who%20did%20not.
2.5 million people facing permanent job loss:
www.cnbc.com...
97,966 small businesses permanently closed, according to data from Yelp--(other sources are much higher numbers, an estimated 1-4 million)
www.cnbc.com...
Calculated 40 million Americans facing eviction:
www.marketwatch.com... 07
Foreclosures expected to rise:

Attom Data Solutions says at least 200,000 American homeowners are likely to default next year. If the economic downturn is especially severe, the foreclosure count could range as high as 500,000 homes. Todd Teta, Attom Data Solutions chief product and technology officer, expects a 70% increase in foreclosures over the next two years.
Attom Data Solutions says at least 200,000 American homeowners are likely to default next year. If the economic downturn is especially severe, the foreclosure count could range as high as 500,000 homes. Todd Teta, Attom Data Solutions chief product and technology officer, expects a 70% increase in foreclosures over the next two years.

tribunecontentagency.com...

And this is only the tip of the iceberg. The long term social and mental toll of this year would be impossible to measure--


Do lockdowns work?
43 states issued stay at home orders between March and April
ballotpedia.org...(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020
Despite these measures, April and May constitute 27% of the total pandemic time, but 44% of the number of deaths (as of data from Oct 16).
Total number of dead and average deaths per day by month:
Total Dead ______________Average per day
March: 4,301 ______________138.7
April: 54,535 ______________1817.8
May: 40,256 ______________1298.5
June: 23,083 ______________769
July: 26,398 ______________851.5
Aug: 29,613 ______________ 955.2
Sept: 23,380 ______________779.3
Oct*: 11,642 ______________ 727.6

*as of Oct 16. New calculations show the daily average is now at 732.9

Data calculated based on New York Times coronavirus statistics:
www.nytimes.com...

A link to an article about Sweden’s approach (with a really great video):
catalyst.independent.org...

i agree.So much carnage over the fear of getting sick. I feel we wont see the real effect of this shut down until next year
I own 2 businesses and one of them, I dont feel can recover after being shut down for 6 months.

Excellent OP. S&F. I wish this data could be shown to everyone but sadly some people will willfully ignore it.

a reply to: zosimov

S & F

Very comprehensive indeed!

They better not lock us down in the states again. I will be rioting.

The devastation from this hoax has already taken its toll.

If we riot from lockdowns, how long until they cry about us not just going along with things to save lives. Literally after they spent the summer doing the same thing with fires and targeted hits.

a reply to: zosimov

Why do you want to kill children and grandparents?


The...the empty seat at the ...the...the thing.

a reply to: zosimov

Geez , After Reading All that I want to Kill Myself . but then I Remembered , LIVE , and See those Scumbags that Started All this One Day Rotting in a Prison Cell ........

originally posted by: zosimov

Do lockdowns work?
43 states issued stay at home orders between March and April
ballotpedia.org...(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020
Despite these measures, April and May constitute 27% of the total pandemic time, but 44% of the number of deaths (as of data from Oct 16).
Total number of dead and average deaths per day by month:
Total Dead ______________Average per day
March: 4,301 ______________138.7
April: 54,535 ______________1817.8
May: 40,256 ______________1298.5
June: 23,083 ______________769
July: 26,398 ______________851.5
Aug: 29,613 ______________ 955.2
Sept: 23,380 ______________779.3
Oct*: 11,642 ______________ 727.6

looking at your stats, suggest that the stay at home orders may have brought the deaths per day under control

a reply to: choos

I get the opposite impression from these numbers. Let's consider maybe an average of 10 days between contracting and succumbing to the illness, we would have seen drops, rather than rises, in correlation to the lockdowns. COVID was spreading in New York despite the measures taken:
http s://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/07/new-survey-suggests-66--of-all-new-hospitalizations-are-from-people-sheltering-at-home-States began reopening in May, and the numbers of deaths per day (thankfully) went down.

Even a look at total cases is rather illuminating: Reached a high in April of 36,741 new cases, and you are right that they did drop to 33,970 on May 1st. The cases then continued to drop (despite reopening), with some fluctuation, heading back up in June. There was a big spike in July, reaching an apex on the 24th of 73,523 new cases, which had died down by September 7 to 25,166 without the lockdowns.

And now, even though the number of cases are at a record high, less people are dying per day now than in any other month since March. That is very good news regarding recovery rates.

Unless I'm interpreting the data wrong... how do you see those numbers?

Fear will raise your risk of getting a worse outcome from a disease. Fear that raises substantually when nobody you love is allowed to see you in the hospital or nursing home. That has been known for a long time by hospitals, it is an inconvenience for them to have visitors in the hospitals but those visitors make their death numbers less in hospitals. We are a social being, one where friendships and love are important to most of us.

I don't care if I get very sick, I am not going to the hospital if they I need to if I can't have my wife and kids come in and see me. I will stay at home, not even go to the doctors because they may say I have to check in. I don't want to increase my risk of catching a disease in the hospital if I don't have to.

a reply to: zosimov

going by the numbers you posted, end of march was when stay at home was issued indicating possibly that cases were getting out of control thus high numbers in april.

and easing in may would indicate that whatever measures taken the result may have begun to be seen.

a reply to: zosimov
Excellent Opening Post!

Starred and Flagged.

Right now, the running daily death toll of people who have Covid-19 is no worse than what you see in a typical flu season. Like you said, it's about 735 @ day.

And the media is spouting made-up numbers when they say what the overall U.S. death toll is, too.

originally posted by: rickymouse
Fear will raise your risk of getting a worse outcome from a disease. Fear that raises substantually when nobody you love is allowed to see you in the hospital or nursing home. That has been known for a long time by hospitals, it is an inconvenience for them to have visitors in the hospitals but those visitors make their death numbers less in hospitals. We are a social being, one where friendships and love are important to most of us.

This is a really good point you made about fear's adverse effect on our health, especially about hospitals allowing visitors despite the risk and inconvenience in order to boost patients' happiness/chances of survival.

a reply to: zosimov

Thanks zosimow really good post .


If this lunacy will continue, a lot people will suffer and die. People need to wake up and see that leadership is broken and evil, with agenda against us.

Thanks to everyone who has read and/or responded so far. I failed to mention the impact on marriages and retirement (two of our biggest milestones):

Divorce rates up 34% this year (particularly bad among newlyweds)
nypost.com...

Effect on retirees:

On the economic side, prolonged weakness in the stock market, if it occurs, would eat into retirees’ income and savers’ expected returns, causing both lower spending during retirement and the need for more saving during working lives. An extended labor market slump may disproportionately impact workers near retirement age, in part because older workers often face acute re-employment challenges during downturns and in part because older workers’ health is especially at-risk in many work environments. If the economic impacts bleed into the housing market, retirees could lose trillions in home equity. And the massive Federal Reserve (Fed) response may keep interest rates low for years, undermining savers’ efforts to build up nest eggs.

www.brookings.edu...

PS: I noticed one or two link errors in the OP. My apologies. Here's the article about small business closures on Yelp (it's the Daily Mail, sorry ):
www.dailymail.co.uk...-comments

12-12-2020

The nutjob officials implementing these lockdowns don't care about us, but they wouldn't dare miss (or stop) events held to honor them and their dysfunctional egos.

Three weeks ago, it was a mask-less California governor Gavin Newsom attending a large VIP wedding.

This week, it will be New York governor Andrew Cuomo, attending a star-studded party, celebrating his birthday.

Source: twitter.com...

We'll see if their assumption that citizens are too stupid to vote them out of office, is correct.