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On the Looming Balkanization of the United States of America

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posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:06 AM
With all the social, economic, and political strife it should be evident that some sort of collapse is imminent. It is my belief that the United States of America as, we know it today, will Balkanize. This thread is not being proposed with a 'Will it or won't it?' viewpoint, but rather a 'How will it?' approach. Please limit your responses to this viewpoint. It is also worth noting that my inspiration for this thread came from a brief discussion in the ATS Discord Server.

Balkanization, if you are unaware, is a geopolitical term defined as "the process of fragmentation or division of a larger region or state into smaller regions or states, which may be hostile or uncooperative with one another." Source

Example of the geopolitical splits of the Balkans 1800-2008

I am not the first to propose that this will happen, and certainly not the last. There have been many hypotheses to how this will happen, some bounded in game theory and others wholly speculative fiction or alternate history. In this thread I will present four for your consideration. Some proposed maps show the current international borders intact, while others have our neighbors to the north and south drawn into the splits. First, I will show you some of the maps of a Divided United States of America that have been created. I will start with which I feel is the most grounded in reality and finish with which I believe to be the most speculative. At the end of each map's interpretation I will state how likely I believe it to be. Finally, at the end of the posting I will propose some additional questions for discussion.

Igor Panarin's Map


Igor Panarin is a Russian political scientist, professor, and author. His claim to fame came in the late 1990s when he predicted that due to mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation the USA would undergo months of disruption in the summer of 2010 and collapse by the end of the same year.

Panarin postulates that a political crisis will lead to the wealthier states withholding Federal funds, effectively seceding from the Union. Following this a civil war would erupt, leading to intervention by foreign powers. The goal of the intervention would not be invasion, but stabilization. The end goal would be to allow the USA to divide, however as peaceably as possible. He also states that the global economy would suffer, as the world is so dependent on the US dollar and trade.

While his predictive date has come to pass, this year we have certainly seen a summer of disruption, social and political division, and economic decline. It is also noteworthy that his prediction has also been supported by other well-known political scientists and analysts, including Gerald Celente, Stephen F. Cohen, and Thomas W. Chittum.

I feel that, while this map is grounded in legitimate research and analysis, it is unlikely to come to fruition. Any UN or foreign intervention would be met with welcome arms in some areas, however in others it would be met with open battle. Very few people in the current USA would be willing to allow foreign troops, even in a peacekeeper's role, to be deployed on USA soil. I feel this intervention would lead to some cooperation between any Balkanized states, at least until the intervening forces are repelled. I do feel that the changing of international boundaries is realistic, especially with some parts of the USA joining Mexico (though not entirely those listed).

The Divided States of America

Click for larger image Source

While this map is based wholly in speculative fiction, I do believe that it has a realistic idea for how far an uncontrolled split of the USA could go. In this map, the USA is divided into 19 separate countries, with what remains of the USA reduced to 31 states left under its control. This map assumes that there would be no international intervention and that current international borders would remain intact.

The new countries have also formed three main blocs of alliance and a few outliers. They are the following:

  1. The Union Bloc

    The Union Bloc is composed of the remnants of the USA, and the newly found countries of Lakotah, the Vermont Republic, and the New England Confederacy. This bloc, which Washington, DC, remains the capitol of, favors mutual cooperation between itself and its former states.

  2. The Southern Alliance

    The Southern Alliance is compromised of the of the recreated Confederate States of America and Republic of Texas with the and the newly created nations of Black Republic of New Afrika and the nation of Aniyunwiya. This alliance is presumed to be tenuous, at best, due to the varying social and political ideologies between the member states. Despite this, they do cooperate in order to prevent either the Union Bloc or PSDC from gaining more power.

  3. Pacific Social Democratic Cooperation

    The Pacific Social Democratic Cooperation is formed from the countries of the New Californian Republic, the Republica de Aztlan, Cascadia, and the People's Republic of California. This bloc promote the ideals of socialism and social democracy.

  4. Additional outliers

    The remaining states form the newly independent nations of Alaska, The Holy State of Deseret, the Vegas Coalition, the Megacorporate Enclave of New Amsterdam, and the reborn Kingdom on Hawai'i. These state would remain effectively neutral to the other blocs, with the exception of disputed territory between Deseret and Cascadia.

I do feel that these new nations and their respective power blocs could happen. However, I also believe that the international borders remaining intact to be unrealistic. I believe that while some new nations would cooperate in time, the first few years to a decade would be relatively violent before subsiding into relative peace with only small border skirmishes.

A Balkanized USA, circa 1940

Click for larger image Source

This map, while being based in fiction and dated to 1940 and offering no reasoning for the splits, does demonstrate a good view of where I feel many social and political boundaries would lie. The borders within the states are realistic seeming, though it does keep the current international boundaries intact.

edit on 9/23/2020 by cmdrkeenkid because: Cleaning up some typos.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:07 AM
The Divided States of America II


This map is the inspiration for the above Divided States of America. It is not based on any one theory, but based off dozens of pieces of speculative fiction and their common divisions of the nation. Whether the nation is divided up by external invasions, internal divisions, or something else entirely is irrelevant. As this is an amalgamation of several sources, I feel it could also be close to the possible divisions of the current USA.

Realistic American Balkanization Scenario
Click for Map

This map is only included due to being silly. I have not included an image here because some may find the material inappropriate or offensive. It is not meant to be serious, though it is seriously funny.

In conclusion, I do feel that we are approaching a tipping point within the USA. The internal political and social disputes, ongoing insurrections, and unwillingness to cooperate within all levels of government are soon to lead to a Balkanization of the United States of America. I do not know where these divisions will lay, however I do think some of the maps above provide for a decent basis of what could happen. I do not feel this will be a bloodless collapse, though I do believe most of the violence will be limited to urban and suburban communities. I also believe that the farther left leaning the local populace is the greater the bloodshed will be.

I hope that I am wrong.

Below are some additional discussion questions. Feel free to answer them or to come up with your own.

  1. Which scenario above do you feel is likely? Or do you think a different scenario could happen? Why?
  2. Do you believe that current international borders would remain intact? Why or why not?
  3. Do you think that a Balkanization of the USA could lead to an open world war? Why or why not?
  4. Do you think the the UN be drawn in on a peacekeeping mission? Why or why not? If why, what do you believe the goals of the intervention would be? What outcome do you think would be it result?
  5. With a particular focus on nuclear warheads, what becomes of the US military? Would foreign powers requisition nuclear devices on bases within their soil? Would newly created nations from a Balkanized USA use nuclear weapons on other new nations? Or would they strictly maintain them to keep other nation states in line with their goals?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Thank you for taking the time to read and consider my post.
edit on 9/23/2020 by cmdrkeenkid because: Cleaning up some typos.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:12 AM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

I don't think it would ever happen but this is an interesting concept.

Would be fascinating to see which new countries carved from the u.s.a. would end up better or worse off.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:22 AM

originally posted by: scraedtosleep
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

I don't think it would ever happen but this is an interesting concept.

Would be fascinating to see which new countries carved from the u.s.a. would end up better or worse off.

Depends on where the slugs crawl to, which would be the side that's going to pay them for sitting around doing nothing. So I'd say that side would do the worst because there will be too many takers and not enough makers. Meanwhile, the side that offers independence will succeed because there will be far more makers.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:24 AM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

This is nothing new, and was a concept the founding fathers must have thought on.

That's the whole reason we were supposed to be a republic. A small centralized government, with most powers held by the states.

Don't like a certain state? Move to a new one that fits you better.

But, both sides gave up equity to the federal side to fit their agenda country wide. So here we are.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:26 AM
Interesting idea and concept. Thank you for sharing.

I've been in Texas long enough to perceive that it's basically it's own country compared to other states I'm familiar with.
Let's hope we never have to see this come to fruition.

(P.S. In before the usual political-tards show up)

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:29 AM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

So, my takeaway, Canada wins??

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:34 AM
We had a civil war. Your 150 years to late for.your fantasy.
And what of all those military bases? Especiallly the nukes.

And who's gonna suspend the consitution?

And who is going to invade whom to start?

Damn commie fantacists.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:44 AM
a reply to: scraedtosleep
a reply to: lakenheath24

Thank you for your responses. However, I do not believe either of you actually read the thread before responding. I preempted both of your responses in my opening statement and within its conclusion. I look forward to hearing what you have to say upon further review.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

And that's how it should be. Also, why I think Texas regaining its independence is a common theme in most Balkanized maps.

a reply to: dug88

I suppose, by the maps. However, due to Canada's close economic and military ties with the current USA, it would certainly be a net loss.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 10:58 AM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

Your scenarios are somewhat "possible"; I dont believe the US military establishment will allow this to transpire. The Military Incustrial Complex, (MIC) is far too powerful and dependent on the wealth of the US Economy as a whole to allow this to happen. If something like this were to occur I would think the MIC would first have to be beggared into near extinction, i.e., deprived of funds such that it is forced to shrink dramatically.

There is a way for that to happen. If the Dems can successfully steal the election, they're partnership with the Chicoms will mean the Chinese Communist Party will be the ultimate puppet master of the Harriss-Biden administration. In recent readings I have discovered that one of the goals of the COVID (CCP) Virus release was to force an economic reset in the US which would of necessity result in the defunding of the US MIC. That would result, for example, in the Aircraft Carriers having to be brought back and mothballed or even sold China perhaps.

I dont see China necessarily trying to invade the US. It doesnt need to. With its proxy party, i.e. the Democrat Party in charge the CCP/Dems can effectively render the US into an economic Colony of China somewhat like Hong Kong. With total control of the Electoral Processes, the Democrat Party will be installed as the One Party and the US will become a One Party Jurisdiction just like China. At that point I would expect to see a mass immigration of Chinese into the US, 200 Million or more and the US would effectively be subsumed into Chinese control at every level.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 11:01 AM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

I suppose, by the maps. However, due to Canada's close economic and military ties with the current USA, it would certainly be a net loss

Well, that's just cause America currently leaves us no choice...if it didn't exist anymore...

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 11:03 AM
a reply to: TonyS

Some links in support of the proposition above:

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 12:54 PM
Yes balkinization can occur in the United states. But first the federal government would have to lose all controll over the states economies.

Right now the states are too dependent on the federal government for funding to balkanize.

Now In the context of a contested election resulting in a new civil war of sorts, or financial collapse causing the federal government to shrink and disappear, I could see it.

We could possibly face both of those scenarios soon which is why UBI is so important. It would keep citizens of the states loyal to the federal government via direct financing through the new fedcoin.

States with nukes within their borders will remain sovereign via threat of mutual destruction.

Any foreign nation getting involved would only ali the quaraling states until said foreigners have been expelled.

All blue helmets would be targets.

The best the world as a whole could do is stand off and watch us burn.

Resulting borders and maps could look like many that have been proposed allready at any time before durring or after the conflict, but some states would absolutely remain sovereign and retain their former borders.


Think of states that produce enough energy and food to support themselves. While also having nukes there and or large military bases/personnel.

Coastal states would be able to maintain some levels of international trade, at least in humanitarian goods, but will have to accept international peacekeeping as a result, and abide by weapons bans and capital controls forced by the un and world bank.

No matter the cause of or final makeup of the balkanized states of America, our status as a hegemony will be destroyed, and our once former glory would never be restored.

We should resist any and every attempt to balkanize, but I fear it may allready be happening.

Get out of the city. Find a state with nukes and the ability to produce enough energy and food for itself. Become self sufficient producing as much of what you need to survive on your own land. Be prepared to repel any encroachment on your God given rights or property.

Think and act localy with like minded individuals to protect our consitutional forms of government.

At the end of the day an once of preperation is worth a pound of cure. Some people have been preparing for this their whole lives, others may think we are nuts for even considering this topic worthy of discussion.

I hope we can all come back to this thread a decade from now and laugh at how paranoid we were, and I would be glad to be the first to admit it.

I hope that day comes, but I'm prepared for the alternatives.

edit on 23-9-2020 by Stevenmonet because: Grammar

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 01:05 PM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

The only thing I can say is I'd never expect Texas to willingly join another nation. If it doesn't work out with the US, Texas is likely to remain an independant entity. We may absorb neighbors (up to Wyoming, who is an awful like Texas people). Joining Mexico just won't happen. I know a lot of folks who are "Mexican", some of whom still go see family in Mexico. Most are more than 3 generations removed. There is no loyalty to the nation of Mexico outside of a fringe.

The Republic of Texas movement has laid down roots that would grow well in that environment. WHile they are whackadoo overall, i think they could capitalize easily on a Texas secession.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 01:23 PM
a reply to: cmdrkeenkid

Take a look at neo Liberta on this map where Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi would be and tell me seriously this isn't some big troll job

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 01:24 PM
a reply to: TonyS

Regardless of whether or not some person, political identity, corporation, or otherwise allowed it to happen, the basis of this thread is that it is happening. I'm not saying that as a fact, but in regards to a future scenario. The route doesn't matter, only the destination, in regards to my posting.

I do agree that instead of full Balkanization becoming a puppet state to another power would be entirely possible though. I'd prefer the Balkanization, to be honest.

a reply to: Stevenmonet

States with nukes within their borders will remain sovereign via threat of mutual destruction.

Any foreign nation getting involved would only ali the quaraling states until said foreigners have been expelled.

All blue helmets would be targets.

I agree with the above sentiments.

Coastal states would be able to maintain some levels of international trade, at least in humanitarian goods, but will have to accept international peacekeeping as a result, and abide by weapons bans and capital controls forced by the un and world bank.

I do agree that coastal nations would fare better, however I do not think they would need to make any concessions to peacekeeping. The rest of the world would just be happy with whatever happens as long as commerce is flowing.

I hope we can all come back to this thread a decade from now and laugh at how paranoid we were, and I would be glad to be the first to admit it.

Definitely. As I said in my posting, I hope I am wrong. Nothing I would like more.

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

I agree. Texas would not lose any territory in any form of Balkanization. Expansion would definitely be more likely. That is one of the aspects that I like from the 1940 map I found.
edit on 9/23/2020 by cmdrkeenkid because: Formatting error.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 02:04 PM
a reply to: Arizonaguy

Your post sneaked in while I was typing up the responses in my previous post. Sorry to leave you out! However, it's clear yet again that another person has not actually read the thread, and it's you! I look forward to your response after you take another peek at what I had to say.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 02:13 PM
a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

Texas would still be in the top ten economies. They have a mostly independent power grid. There is a substantial population, land mass, access to the ocean, ect.

They are the best suited in all of America to go off on their own. Most states would need others to make it.... Not Texas.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 02:15 PM
OP is thematically if not geographically correct.

The American experiment is over. There will be no coming back from this.

The death toll is really the only question, and how long the rest of the world stands by.

I could wish for "Balkinization" ... that, however, is not the American way.

All or nothing.

posted on Sep, 23 2020 @ 02:28 PM
I just thought of something quite important that has not yet even been mentioned.

United states foreign bases and troops on continual forward deployment!

With all of the military might that is currently NOT stateside does the whole picture change?

Yep and in big ways.

The amount of hardware and personnel we have overseas could totaly be a game changer.

No way the federal government loses control as long as its ability to project power is backwards compatible.

What do I mean by that?

Imagine every us military asset outside of the United States being activated against any separatist state or combatant as domestic enemies of the federal government.

Lincoln had the army and navy but no real war fighting capabilities outside the US. He had no air force, and didn't have hundreds of bases and aircraft carriers arround the world stocked with the men and equipment nesicary to put down any fighting force in the world at a moments notice.

Yet even lincoln was able to prevent the long term balkinization of America he got it done and was elected to a second term.

So imagine any comander in cheif today, and what is at his disposal.

America's ability to project power at a moment's notice and in overwhelming force anywhere on the globe is maintained by a constant presence of us forces across the globe.

The ability to project that force is backwards compatible because It could just as easily be projected state side should the need arise.

The precedent has been set by the first us civil war. Do you have any doubt that lincoln used every military asset at his disposal?

Well then why would today be any different?

So balkanization would be very short lived or have to be predicated by the return of all us military assets, or to put it better; until United States military assets are no longer on continued global forward deployment the United States will not be succesfully balkinized.

The military took an oath and swore to fight all enemies of the constitution foreign and domestic. They did it in the first civil war and would do it again today.

No way our forward deployed assets wouldn't be used to put down any armed insurection once one was declared.

From the whiskey rebellion, civil war, and civil rights movement, all the way to today's constant post 9/11 global war on terror the United States Military has always obeyed the lawful comands of their commander in cheif to protect our constitutional government from all enemies foriegn and domestic.

Once we consider the difference in our global forward deployment and rapid strike capability of today vs that available to lincoln durring the civil war the results are staggering.

Also think friend or foe advanced weaponry denial systems. Fort sumpter would look a lot different today. All those plaines on all those bases stateside would be useless against a friendly with the stroke of a key and the propper command codes.

Same with the nukes they are paper weights without the launch codes, and would be locked down imediatly so no access to anyone but the official chain of command ending at the commander in cheif.

Now take into account that the back bone of every modern military is actually in cyberspace and outerspace. Critical real time battle Intelligence collection evaluation and decemination as it is would no longer be available to insurectionest forces.

The power grid did not exist durring the civil war. Neither did the internet and GPS.

Sorry, but when I take all these modern factors into account, I just don't see any american insurrection resulting in the successfull long term balkinization of the United States.

At best we get very short lived non state sponsered civil unrest. The second an insurection is declared it will be put down in days not weeks or years nevermind secession or the changing of the United States national/international borders.

Not until the constant global forward deployment and modern command and controll infrastructure of the United States military lies in ruins.

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