With all the social, economic, and political strife it should be evident that some sort of collapse is imminent. It is my belief that the United
States of America as, we know it today, will Balkanize. This thread is not being proposed with a 'Will it or won't it?' viewpoint, but rather a 'How
will it?' approach. Please limit your responses to this viewpoint. It is also worth noting that my inspiration for this thread came from a brief
discussion in the ATS Discord Server
Balkanization, if you are unaware, is a geopolitical term defined as "the process of fragmentation or division of a larger region or state into
smaller regions or states, which may be hostile or uncooperative with one another." Source
Example of the geopolitical splits of the Balkans 1800-2008
I am not the first to propose that this will happen, and certainly not the last. There have been many hypotheses to how this will happen, some bounded
in game theory and others wholly speculative fiction or alternate history. In this thread I will present four for your consideration. Some proposed
maps show the current international borders intact, while others have our neighbors to the north and south drawn into the splits. First, I will show
you some of the maps of a Divided United States of America that have been created. I will start with which I feel is the most grounded in reality and
finish with which I believe to be the most speculative. At the end of each map's interpretation I will state how likely I believe it to be. Finally,
at the end of the posting I will propose some additional questions for discussion.
Igor Panarin's Map
Igor Panarin is a Russian political scientist, professor, and author. His claim to fame came in the late 1990s when he predicted that due to mass
immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation the USA would undergo months of disruption in the summer of 2010 and collapse by the end of the
Panarin postulates that a political crisis will lead to the wealthier states withholding Federal funds, effectively seceding from the Union. Following
this a civil war would erupt, leading to intervention by foreign powers. The goal of the intervention would not be invasion, but stabilization. The
end goal would be to allow the USA to divide, however as peaceably as possible. He also states that the global economy would suffer, as the world is
so dependent on the US dollar and trade.
While his predictive date has come to pass, this year we have certainly seen a summer of disruption, social and political division, and economic
decline. It is also noteworthy that his prediction has also been supported by other well-known political scientists and analysts, including Gerald
Celente, Stephen F. Cohen, and Thomas W. Chittum.
I feel that, while this map is grounded in legitimate research and analysis, it is unlikely to come to fruition. Any UN or foreign intervention would
be met with welcome arms in some areas, however in others it would be met with open battle. Very few people in the current USA would be willing to
allow foreign troops, even in a peacekeeper's role, to be deployed on USA soil. I feel this intervention would lead to some
any Balkanized states, at least until the intervening forces are repelled. I do feel that the changing of international boundaries is realistic,
especially with some parts of the USA joining Mexico (though not entirely those listed).
The Divided States of America
Click for larger image Source
While this map is based wholly in speculative fiction, I do believe that it has a realistic idea for how far an uncontrolled split of the USA could
go. In this map, the USA is divided into 19 separate countries, with what remains of the USA reduced to 31 states left under its control. This map
assumes that there would be no international intervention and that current international borders would remain intact.
The new countries have also formed three main blocs of alliance and a few outliers. They are the following:
- The Union Bloc
The Union Bloc is composed of the remnants of the USA, and the newly found countries of Lakotah, the Vermont Republic, and the New England
Confederacy. This bloc, which Washington, DC, remains the capitol of, favors mutual cooperation between itself and its former states.
- The Southern Alliance
The Southern Alliance is compromised of the of the recreated Confederate States of America and Republic of Texas with the and the newly created
nations of Black Republic of New Afrika and the nation of Aniyunwiya. This alliance is presumed to be tenuous, at best, due to the varying social and
political ideologies between the member states. Despite this, they do cooperate in order to prevent either the Union Bloc or PSDC from gaining more
- Pacific Social Democratic Cooperation
The Pacific Social Democratic Cooperation is formed from the countries of the New Californian Republic, the Republica de Aztlan, Cascadia, and the
People's Republic of California. This bloc promote the ideals of socialism and social democracy.
- Additional outliers
The remaining states form the newly independent nations of Alaska, The Holy State of Deseret, the Vegas Coalition, the Megacorporate Enclave of New
Amsterdam, and the reborn Kingdom on Hawai'i. These state would remain effectively neutral to the other blocs, with the exception of disputed
territory between Deseret and Cascadia.
I do feel that these new nations and their respective power blocs could happen. However, I also believe that the international borders remaining
intact to be unrealistic. I believe that while some new nations would cooperate in time, the first few years to a decade would be relatively violent
before subsiding into relative peace with only small border skirmishes.
A Balkanized USA, circa 1940
Click for larger image
This map, while being based in fiction and dated to 1940 and offering no reasoning for the splits, does demonstrate a good view of where I feel many
social and political boundaries would lie. The borders within the states are realistic seeming, though it does keep the current international
CONTINUED IN NEXT POST
edit on 9/23/2020 by cmdrkeenkid because: Cleaning up some typos.