Understanding the true severity of Covid-19

a reply to: ChaoticOrder On the issue of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it was announced a few days ago that he will retire from the Prime Minister post in about six months, because of his post-COVID-19 continuing health issues.

originally posted by: LookingAtMars

originally posted by: Nothin
a reply to: LookingAtMars

... There are many more examples of things like this, I just can't see these highly educated and trained people getting it all so wrong.

Have you considered the possibilities : if they didn't get it all wrong ?

Yep, looks like it may have all been part of the plandemic.

With the right people, in the right places : they don't even have to be 'in on it', right ?

Some just go-along with all of the top-down dictates, no questions asked.

Hmmmm : sounds kinda like a few management types, unfortunately encountered...

a reply to: ChaoticOrder


The Severity of Covid-19 Has Been OVERBLOWN . Confirmed .



PA Governor's COVID-19 Restrictions Ruled Unconstitutional By Federal Judge






www.zerohedge.com...

originally posted by: daskakik
Wasn't that the idea?

For the billionth time, it makes sense to flatten the curve to prevent straining health services, but it makes zero sense to over-flatten the curve. As I explained in a previous thread, over-flattening the curve only prolongs the suffering and prevents herd immunity. I'm not sure how many times this has to be explained before some people will grasp the concept... slowing the spread as much as possible doesn't automatically equate to more lives saved. If you flatten the curve you also widen the curve, so the area under the curve stays essentially the same.

The places which over-flattened the curve of the first wave got hit with a massive second wave, combine the two waves and it's the same as if we had of just allowed a single wave to occur. Places like New Zealand which haven't experienced any big wave are going to be in for a big shock when they finally decide to open up their borders because they have almost no herd immunity at all. They are essentially stuck waiting for a vaccine that may never come... I certainly wouldn't want to be in such a precarious situation.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder


This thing is folowing the rules of seasonal flues,Places with permanent summers seem less affected like places now in the winter.Some countries like Turkey and Vietnam have hardly any deaths but are taking Chloquinine like candy.Places with higher vitamin D levels or where they fortify the food with it like Sweden are acting normally. In New Zealand its only Auckland that had a cluster due to slackness now their does not seem to be any furthur cases, with a high liklehood of going back to level one next week. This will go on for so long the economy will adjust, simply because the lack of Tourism, also means a lot of money will be staying in the country.Places that relied on seasonal labour are worried because the harvest might not come in , but any one wanting a job will have no worries as the fruit picking will mop up everyone looking for work. The population of New Zealand is about five million, with one million Kiwis working overseas, they seem to be coming back and buying houses , so the prices are actually going up, how long this will last is debatable.If we didnt have the strict lockdowns I am sure we would have gone the way of Victoria.

a reply to: anonentity

You are beyond help if you think NZ is in a good situation right now. I'm not even going to expend the energy debating you.

a reply to: daskakik

Obviously there are people hit and some might have done better but the question I raised is how much did it really affect the GDP?

People didn't stop consuming just because they couldn't sit in a bar or restaurant.

They consumed less. They spent less money, and in the case of bars and restaurants, that will not be countered once the panic is over like paper purchases. Plus the employees and owners of those businesses were unable to spend as much because they were unemployed.

I can't personally state a figure; I'm an engineer, not an economist. But I did find this chart that shows the GDP growth as a percentage. From July 2017 through 2019 it was averaging 2.6% annualized growth. The first quarter of 2020 that slipped to a negative 5%, and the second quarter it went to a negative 31.7% (visit the link to see the full chart; it looks to be too wide for ATS to show it). That would appear to be the result of the pandemic, and it's a pretty severe drop.
TheRedneck

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
over-flattening the curve only prolongs the suffering and prevents herd immunity

If you flatten the curve you also widen the curve, so the area under the curve stays essentially the same.

The places which over-flattened the curve of the first wave got hit with a massive second wave, combine the two waves and it's the same as if we had of just allowed a single wave to occur.

If the infections stay the same but just spread out over time, isn't that the same as slowing the spread? Wasn't that the idea? So, what is this over-flattening you keep talking about?

Also, I see you are using graphs for new cases but what about other parameters? In this set of graphs for the US, from covidtracking.com, we see cases really increase and hospitalizations reach the same level in July as April but deaths are half.


It would seem like something was learned during that time which is helping in the treatment of patients needing hospitalization resulting in less deaths. Wouldn't that be a result, in part, of the time bought by slowing down infections? Not saying it is, but it is a possibility.

Seems to me like you have some confirmation bias going on.

a reply to: TheRedneck
I could have sworn I saw a thread earlier about 35% growth predicted for Q3. Who knows?

I'm just saying that while things may be rough, obviously rougher for some, the claim that the economy is destroyed or tanked might be an exaggeration. I guess time will tell.

a reply to: daskakik

Q3 has not happened yet. I hope it is a great quarter, but hope doesn't buy groceries.

The thing most people are talking about is the number of people who have been taken from prosperity or just a stable living to indigence in two short quarters. The entire restaurant and entertainment industries have been changed. I know the only good buffet in the town near me is gone, and it's not coming back. It's been taken over by a new restaurant that does not offer buffets. I will not be going there; the buffet was the sole reason I loved the place.

That is also true for several towns in the surrounding area.

I have found that kitchen orders are also more expensive... so that means less trips out to eat period. Maybe the Huddle House or a cafe like that, but as for nice restaurants? Nope. And I am not alone; I know of several people who have said the same thing. That's a drop in business for the nicer restaurants in this area all because of the regulations. Now, maybe in the future a similar restaurant will open... but that's not guaranteed by any means.

Another problem is that we now have a precedent: the government can shut down any business for any reason at any time. Now, I don't know if you have ever run a business before, but I have. I invested literally everything I owned except my home itself into that business. When it failed, I lost literally everything I owned except my home... and almost lost my family due to the stress involved. I would love to start up another business, but IMO someone would be crazy to do so in an environment where they can be arbitrarily shut down for something that happened on the other side of the globe.

People do not open businesses to go broke. People do not hire others to go broke.

I felt the same way about the Obama policies under that administration, and guess what? Businesses were closing left and right. Trump has some serious confidence rebuilding to do.

Less people working means less money being spent... people cannot spend money they do not have. So higher unemployment in one industry will affect other industries. One cannot just isolate one segment of the economy and expect it to fail without taking other segments down with it. Less people employed means less people buying new houses. Less new houses mean less people building houses. Less people building houses mean more unemployed. More unemployed means less people buying new cars. Less people buying new cars means less people selling cars and less steel being produced. Less steel being produced means less people producing steel. Less people producing steel means less drivers transporting steel. Less drivers transporting steel means less fuel being used. Less fuel being used means less people producing fuel.

It's all tied together.

TheRedneck

a reply to: daskakik

So, what is this over-flattening you keep talking about?

Clearly it wont matter how many times I explain it, you just don't want to acknowledge the fact that dragging out and prolonging the lockdowns for a much longer time than was necessary did a huge amount of damage that could have been completely avoided. There is a difference between slowing the spread to prevent hospitals from overflowing and slowing the spread as much as possible based on a neurotic and false belief that it somehow helps.

originally posted by: subfab
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

how do we change things?

when is it time to go back to business as usual?

8 months ago?

a reply to: TheRedneck
Neither has Q4. The truth is that the damage won't be known till the dust settles and what people are talking about can have a hint of fear mongering to it.

The economy experiencing a dip or even a slump doesn't mean it has been "destroyed". Words have meanings.

I honestly don't have the numbers either.

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: ChaoticOrder


The Severity of Covid-19 Has Been OVERBLOWN . Confirmed .



PA Governor's COVID-19 Restrictions Ruled Unconstitutional By Federal Judge






www.zerohedge.com...

Some people prefer to believe that covid-19 reactions ripped America's economic balloon. That is false.

All it did was let the air out.

Now is the time to reopen everything and pump the economic balloon back up again.

Those who want to stay at home can find a work-from-home job.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
Clearly it wont matter how many times I explain it, you just don't want to acknowledge the fact that dragging out and prolonging the lockdowns for a much longer time than was necessary did a huge amount of damage that could have been completely avoided. There is a difference between slowing the spread to prevent hospitals from overflowing and slowing the spread as much as possible based on a neurotic and false belief that it somehow helps.

I doubt you know how much or long was necessary or how much damage could have been completely avoided.

So, yeah, your explanations are lacking, and overlooking, too much data for me to acknowledge them.

originally posted by: BomSquad

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: daskakik



And wearing mask is just symbolic gesture that shows peron is just obedient to cult rules. I can understand mask use in surgical operations , but not really much to protect anyone from this supposed virus.

For the Nth time, the mask isn't to protect yourself....it is to protect others FROM you.
Surgeons don't wear masks to protect themselves from the patient, it is to protect the patient from infection by the surgeon!

Kindly piss right off, white knighting is BS. I'm in the "high risk" category and do NOT want others to be forced to mollycoddle me whether they agree with it or not. I can mind myself just fine whether or not you slap a face diaper on. It's about high god damned time you learn to manage the same of yourself. Leave the rest of us TF alone. I do not appreciate your "concern" at all. In fact, it's belittling at best, "You don't know how to take preventative measures for yourself the right way, I'll do it FOR you". Bite me, my life, my gamble. NOT YOURS.

a reply to: daskakik

The economy experiencing a dip or even a slump doesn't mean it has been "destroyed". Words have meanings.

Parts of the economy are destroyed. I mentioned one above that is simply gone from my area. I'm not talking about a neighborhood; I'm talking about the whole damn county and parts of the adjoining counties,

And since it is all tied together, that bodes ill for the rest of the economy.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck
Hardly quantitative. You already said you don't have the figures. Although some places have been forced out of business, whether the economy, as a whole, has been destroyed remains to be seen. All I said was that calling it that seems a little premature.

a reply to: daskakik

If you are looking for a quantitative description of something as vast and intertwined as the national economy, you are going to be badly disappointed. Some things cannot be described by a single number.

I did give you the numbers on GDP growth earlier; that's probably about as close as you'll ever get.

TheRedneck