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originally posted by: RickinVa
I have to make a 2 hour drive through rural Kentucky this afternoon.
I will be counting the Biden/Trump signs.
I did this in 2016 when I had to drive through rural West Virginia....Trump signs out numbered Hillary signs by about 20 to 1....and the polls were saying that Hillary couldn't lose.
I will post my results later.
Since most of the big National polls are (for some reason) weighted with more Democrat than Republican responders...
This is something the pollsters didn't do in 2016, which is part of the reason why almost all of them underestimated candidate Trump's odds of winning, which caused them to predict that Hillary Clinton would win handily.
Continued at: thenationalpulse.com... s/
ABC-IPSOS’S NEW POLL – WHICH OSTENSIBLY SHOWS PRESIDENT TRUMP IN TROUBLE – SURVEYED JUST 533 PEOPLE, WITHOUT A PREFERENCE FOR LIKELY OR REGISTERED VOTERS, AND WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEMOCRATIC PARTY SKEW.
The poll – cited across the news media on Sunday – purported to show the public at odds with the President over the coronavirus pandemic as well as the widely debunked story about his supposedly derogatory comments about the military.
But the poll is almost less scientific than a Twitter survey, given who was polled, and in what percentages and ratios.
STACKING THE DECK.
In total, the poll quizzed 31 percent Democrats, and just 25 percent Republicans. The pollsters also surveyed 38 percent self-identified independents.
In a telling detail, pollster Ipsos actually refused to reveal these party breakdown numbers on their website and in their PDF of the poll.
Instead, they opaquely state: “Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.”
Recent ABC/Washington Post polls also stacked the decks in favor of Biden supporters, with the July polling quizzing 522 Biden supporters versus 399 Trump supporters. That amounts to a 27 percent inbuilt bias for Biden supporters.
ABC News itself was more up front about the numbers, revealing the stark difference between Democrats and Republicans surveyed.
‘GENERAL POPULATION POLLED’
The poll also failed to approach registered, or likely voters: a key factor when attempting to rely on polling as a means by which to inform an election.
originally posted by: links234
a reply to: carewemust
Both Democrats and Republicans have gained in Pennsylvania. Democrats have gained about 30,000 voters while Republicans have gained about 165,000. It's a significant difference but Democrats are still a majority in that state with around 800,000 registered voters.
So this notion that people are fleeing one party for the other doesn't really hold up given that both parties have seen a net gain to their registered voter numbers. Pennsylvania seems to be the outlier though with registered voter gains that large.