Experts now believe pockets of New York and London could have herd immunity

So apparently some places could already have herd immunity. I've been using New York and the UK as examples of places that appear to have herd immunity for several weeks. It's hard to ignore what the data is saying, and our understanding of how herd immunity works is clearly not complete. The percentage of people needing to be infected has constantly dropped with every new study, now they say 10% could be enough.

Herd immunity against Covid-19 could be closer than scientists first thought and as little as 10 per cent of people may need to be infected for the virus to fizzle out, experts say.

It means pockets of London and New York and countries like India may already be immune to the life-threatening disease, should a second wave hit.

Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told the New York Times: 'I'm quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity.

Experts now believe pockets of New York and London could be immune from Covid-19 and as few as 10% of people may need to be infected

Combine this news with the recent studies showing people have lasting immunity from having Covid-19, and combine that with the official data showing up to 80% of people may be asymptomatic, meaning we really don't know how many people have already caught it, and it's not hard to see how some places could already have herd immunity.

The true size of the pandemic is a mystery because millions of infected people were not tested during the height of the crisis, either because of a lack of Covid-19 swabs or because they never had any of the tell-tale symptoms.

I think it probably takes substantially more than 10% of people to be infected for herd immunity to work effectively but I also think we are most likely underestimating how much Covid-19 has really spread. The fact so many people experience little to no symptoms already provides some herd immunity by default because those asymptomatic people are less infectious.

And scientists say immunity in the UK is likely to be far higher than what Government antibody testing shows because it doesn't account for T-cells. Top immunologists have said the infection-fighting cells are typically more durable and long lasting than antibodies.

Even if antibodies don't last more than a few months there's a lot more to the way our immune system works and the way it memorizes viruses which it has dealt with in the past. Another expert mentioned in the article points out that evolutionary pressure causes viruses to be become less deadly and better at spreading, and we are already seeing that with common strains of Covid-19.

I also noticed another piece of news out of the UK today stating that Britain is now seeing record low case numbers. Apparently the flu and pneumonia are now killing six times as many people as Covid-19. Yet I bet the media in the UK is still acting like these few cases are enough reason to continue unnecessary restrictions, and I'm guessing New York is also in a similar situation.

Separate promising data released today showed Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales have reached another low and that flu and pneumonia are now killing six times as many people.

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the viral illnesses killed 1,013 people in England and Wales in the week up to August 7, compared to 152 patients who lost their lives to coronavirus.

Britain records 1,089 more Covid-19 cases as daily average shrinks for third day in a row - while officials post 12 deaths and figures show six times as many people are now dying from flu and pneumonia

I'm seeing a lot of concerns about a second wave if these hard hit places fully re-open, but it's very clear that wont happen. The places which have experienced a second wave are those which over-flattened the initial wave and I've shown that in my previous threads. Tell me how cases could be dropping in the UK while riots were ramping up and people started packing onto beaches.

New York City has a population around a third of Australia, and Australia's population is sparsely distributed over a large amount of land. Tell me how NYC with such a dense population is managing to prevent a second wave after experiencing a large initial wave just like the UK, but somehow Australia is experiencing a second wave larger than the first, after being praised for flattening the initial curve so much.

Maybe these particular "strains" have a half life that doesn't regenerate 😎

I've seen the same argument regarding California's lack of major outbreaks. They are as congested as NY or anywhere else. Yet they have nowhere near the cases. Perhaps they were impacted as early as Nov Dec and thought it was just the regular flu, and now most of the population has antibodies.

So after all these months of doom and gloom now the Daily Mail comes out with this?

Hope it's true but think herd immunity is the only way we get through this quickly as possible.That said most times I thought you needed 20% to 30% of the population to have it for it starting to take affect. I'm still backing herd immunity but think the masks and protocols slowed down the spread so it will take just a little longer to achieve.

Unless the"vaccine" is nothing but exposing enough people to COVID 19 in the first place.Or we could have been having cases for much longer than initially thought, therefore, we have higher percentages of people who have had it already

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Let me take a guess.... "herd immunity" only being detected at BLM/Antifa protests, or Wal Marts & Costcos, amiright?

I forgot to add "John Lewis' funeral" and all of the other virtue-signaling mass gatherings the democrats have been putting on for show

You guys will be sorry

In

2

More

Weeks!

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Let me take a guess.... "herd immunity" only being detected at BLM/Antifa protests, or Wal Marts & Costcos, amiright?

No, we need the economic damage to focus on small businesses.

Nice work! You presented factual arguments, and quoted sources to back it up. More people around here need to follow your example.

I have also been considering that the herd immunity route might be an okay one to take, but I don’t get persuaded by emotional arguments as easily as verified facts and good logic.

I was thinking that because of the high amount of Asymptomatic cases, it might be possible to reach herd immunity with only 10% of the population or so testing positive. I saw some charts on YouTube showing that kind of situation in Sweden.

I am for flattening the curve to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, but we might have gone too far and hurt the economy too much.

I do think mandatory masks are useful because they have been proven to reduce viral spread while keeping the economy open.

Also - we copied China and Europe, but some countries in Europe mandated that companies that got bailouts could not fire any workers, so imo these countries that had lockdowns remembered the part where they also reimburse companies and individuals for their trouble and keep people employed.

I think we locked down as a reaction and forgot to plan for keeping the economy from being hurt too much.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

I've been following Covid data here: Covid Tracking

So it has been reported that it will take approximately 66% of the population to reach herd suppression. So in my "data watching" I've been sticking with that number. There are plenty of reports out that as much as 50% of the population has cross immunity from other viruses. So that means only 16% of the population needs to be infected to reach our 66%. We've also been told that only 10% of the positive cases are confirmed b/c so many have little or no symptoms. So then we only need 10% of that 16% number to reach our herd suppression. So right around 1.6% of the population would get us to herd suppression level - - assuming all the numbers that have been estimated are accurate-ish.

I live in Florida - our recent downturn occurred right around July 19 (when exactly 1.6% of the population had confirmed cases). Look at Arizona - their recent downturn took place around July 8 (when cases reached 1.5% of their population). Now Texas - their downturn occurred around July 23rd when they hit 1.2% of the population having positive cases. I picked these 3 states because they were all having accelerating cases over the past month or so - now they are all in steady decline.

Now New York hit that 1.6% number back at the beginning of May. They've yet to see any type of 2nd wave since then despite plenty of opportunity (protests, riots, etc.).

Now I'm sure it's not going to be an exact science, but if the 50% cross immunity number is relatively accurate and the 10% of cases actually being "caught" is relatively accurate then once a state gets to that 1.6% number you should start to see a decline in cases.....it might be at 1.2% or it might be at 2.5% but if the numbers are close, that is where you should see it - - and we are.

Now we could have an explosion of cases over the next month or three and my line of thinking here could easily be proven completely wrong - - but thus far the data supports it. This doesn't mean I think Covid is over and done with (I don't think it will ever be over or done with) but we shouldn't see anymore of the big spikes in cases that cause hospitals to be overwhelmed and drastic reactions from governors and mayors.

Send your kids off to school!! Perhaps we can get more "expert" data from that experiment on herd immunity.

Experts from the "Daily Mail"........ impressive!!

a reply to: acparker7

Your logic makes sense, too but who knows, if COVID-19 is seasonal or mutates or something there could be additional waves.

I think the first wave isn’t over in the U.S. as a whole because it has been slowed and suppressed by lockdowns and stuff.

a reply to: darkbake

I would agree with you - - I've said from the beginning that all the lockdowns and restrictions aren't going to change the outcome, they're only going to change the timeline.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder


Good god, don't tell the neurotic nags this, they'll short-circuit and explode.











Actually, sing it from the rooftops, this ought to be fun.

originally posted by: Mandroid7

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Let me take a guess.... "herd immunity" only being detected at BLM/Antifa protests, or Wal Marts & Costcos, amiright?

No, we need the economic damage to focus on small businesses.

It's already taken a yuggge toll. Won't Xmas be great!!! Amazon will prosper but mom and pops are SOL this year.

I closed my retail shop, laid off my help but gave them the LLC and inventory, if they want to reopen someday...I'm out, I can't afford the rent and now my landlord is left with a bunch of boarded up stores.

Covid19 is now just an after thought, the damage has already been done!

Southern California has herd immunity, probably since mid february - politicians know this, the public knows this only people who have their brain spoon fed leftists media and or have low IQ think anything else at this point.

The most terrified I see are usually 1st generation asian and latino females in there early 40's - the type that also tend to live and die on superstition, astrology and other esoteric things.

Once again socialism has effectively targeted minorities which is just sad really.

a reply to: acparker7

I’ve seen the exact same data. It’s funny that right when you hit 1.6-2.4% of the population with confirmed cases, new cases followed by hospitalizations and deaths start dropping immediately. I’ve been watching this thesis since the end of July, and there hasn’t been a US state that didn’t roll shortly after that threshold. GA and LA did do on the higher end of it and they have almost identical demographics. When that threshold is hit, you see a noticeable downtrend regardless of mitigation policies in the state. I’ve been following the data from www.covidtracking.com . How you do it is you take .016 of the total state population look at the day that the state hit that number, then compare the cases, hospitalizations, and death curves. You’ll notice that cases roll first,followed by hospitalizations, and finally deaths. A couple of states rolled a bit earlier, and a couple like GA and LA a bit later. This is regardless of what the states policies on masks or gatherings is. The premise is that if you’re close to that 1.6% of population worth of cases an exponential increase that would overwhelm the medical system is unlikely.

I came across Hereittickerforum.org..." target="_blank" class="postlink">Here on 7-20-20 Presented as a hypothesis with predictions that so far have held.

Even the Coronavirus doesn't want to stay in New York any longer than it has to.

originally posted by: putnam6
I'm still backing herd immunity but think the masks and protocols slowed down the spread so it will take just a little longer to achieve

To be fair, that was the goal; slow it down so the hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed. Yes, the odds of surviving COVID are really good, but how many people with severe cases only survived because they were able to be hospitalized for it when they needed to be?