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2H 2020 to 2021 Prognostications

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posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 04:42 PM
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We’re firmly in the second half of 2020, so I sat back and ran through where we’ve been in this crazy year, consider implications and use that analysis to set my own personal expectations and also drive some investment decisions.

I’m dropping this in The Mud Pit because almost all of this hinges on politics - during a highly political year.

Here’s my prognostications for the balance of 2020 and 2021 from this point forward:

1. At least 60% of American school aged kids will not attend full time, in-person education in the fall - placing notable financial and mental hardships on families.
2. We will not get a vaccine or effective treatment for COVID at least until after the election.
3. Biden will beat trump by a mile in the general election.
4. If you live in a blue state - you’ll be locked down at minimum until the election. Only way you get out is if it helps Biden in some way (which it likely wouldn’t). Happy people don’t vote in a different President.
5. The equity markets will move lower than they are today until Election Day and then rip by the end of the year.
6. When Biden wins, we’ll have resolution to COVID in 6-8 weeks - guidance will change materially in terms of its “risks”. Official narrative will be that because of what we did in Blue states, the virus weakened and now only impacts a few people and we can restart our economy. Libs take credit for the victory.
7. BLM protests will continue until the election.
8. All legacy “American Institutions” will be bailed out. For instance... airlines and Hertz rental car as examples. Airlines because it impacts too many people if we let them die and Hertz (that’s a tag along to the airlines due to why most people need rental cars) because of the massive quantity of fleet vehicles they purchase from American automakers. The knock-on impacts are too high to let those business implode entirely. That will probably all get included in the next stimulus bill to be discussed next week. Crushes morale too much if we don’t.
9. Biden will bail out all of the blue states that are massively underwater from the compound effects of their irresponsible decision making for the last several decades. They also become less independent - creating a greater locus on control at the Federal level working to move us to a one-party system.
10. Taxes will go up materially on those making more than 500k a year, small business and corporations. Ironically, it’s those higher taxes coupled with the same “loopholes” that will drive businesses to increase expenses as opposed to paying tax - which is a net positive for the economy. This is a massively under appreciated point for why the economy does well under Demo presidents.
11. Holiday shopping season will be rough but markets will plow higher because we’re open and the economy is genuinely improving.
12. Something along the lines of the “Infectious Disease Tracking and Monitoring” agency will be formed under Biden and the population will be forced to submit to constant tracking and divulging their personal medical history both in arrears and on a go-forward basis to ensure we contain “hot spots”. Majority of people will submit to this willingly - and when couple with the NSA - they now have a full profile on each American. It’s the Chinese “social credit” system on steroids. Facebook and Instagram will play a role in enforcement.
13. You’ll see “reparations”paid to black people via Biden - it will be a massive boon to the economy - and most of those people will blow their one-tIme check and be broke in less than 6 months because no one is going to teach folks financial literacy. This will turn into sort of a social security type system for minorities ongoing - making them fully dependent on the state and completely demeaning their abilities as humans under the guise of caring.
14. We’ll see an abrupt reduction in societal unrest immediately following the election.
15. Restaurants, bars, night clubs, social clubs, etc. will be reduced by count nationally to cut the ability of people to congregate and share unregulated ideas - and those that are open will be highly regulated and monitored. Facebook will take a massive hit as people exit social media tied to tracking until they buy up all the competitors - because something like going to a social club will be viewed as subversive behavior and no one can be “off the grid”.
16. We get an equity market run that will astound most investors in Q4 20 and through 2021. I expect to see a +40% run in equity markets in that 15 month period. Tech, Energy, Airlines, discretionary and materials lead that rally - and the smaller, sub-Industries that serve them will really rip.
17. Before the election, there will be another debt bubble that creeps up, tier 2 banks will roll up into the big banks ala 2008. This is because we can’t raise interest rates and the big banks need quantity of business in the absence of a strong yield curve spread. If you’re not with JPM, BA, Wells, etc. you stand a decent chance of being with them soon.
18. Healthcare will take a big hit post COVID. People will exercise more, stop taking medications as they get healthier and also do a better job with their hygiene. Remember, treatment is always more profitable than cures (ongoing revenue stream) - as the masses take heath more seriously, we will shift to thinking more about cures - we’ll see a massive reduction in many diseases in the next decade.

What blows all of this up?
- Trump gets re-elected and the left continues another 4 year temper tantrum.
- The free market creates a treatment before the election.
- Financial hardships hit more materially before the stimulus can bail folks out and the masses demand reopening.
- The virus burns itself out and that can’t be concealed.
- Trump is assassinated before the election after the country sees how inept Joe Biden is after a debate - which I view as a legitimate concern.
- People stop caring about the virus in general.
- The virus becomes legitimately more lethal as time goes on to the point that politics no longer matter as its a true, broad population killer.
- We take interest rates negative; which would be the death knell for our economy ala Japan.
- We have an armed civil war.
- Another country aside from the US, likely a China/Russia collaborative, starts WW3 as the US is currently weakened from within.

So, I’m holding cash for now, plan to invest fully and tactically in October, bought a giant TV to watch shows since I’ll be stuck at home for a while and have enough car parts on order to keep me occupied wrenching for the next 6 months.

If you do it right, there’s a lot of profit and positivity to be had going forward.

Exploit the left’s ideals - don’t fear them, folks.




posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 05:13 PM
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The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!




posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 05:20 PM
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a reply to: xuenchen

I’d say you’re right. The degree to which things have gotten messed up - wildly exceeding even the Great Depression in many facets no less - had to be done to push The Agenda forward.

Remember, 6 months ago we were objectivity the most prosperous nation at scale in the history of humanity. And 9/10 Americans were feeling better about their personal situation than they ever have...

Oh and we haven’t started wars, worked on reducing political corruption, stopped spending money on being the world’s policeman and actually started to make “deals” that had at least some resemblance of benefit or neutrality in terms of impact to the American people.

Nope, can’t have that.

But if we can see where we’re going, there is plenty of winning to still be had.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 05:26 PM
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a reply to: EnigmaChaser

you missed one.

- AboveTopSecret will find a way to survive. it will serve as a sounding board for us for years to come.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 05:41 PM
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a reply to: subfab

I sincerely hope that’s true!!!



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 05:58 PM
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1. Trump gets re-elected and America has it's second Reagan/Mondale election event in which the media look like disconnected fools the day after.
2. Massive social unrest will follow, driven by the small percentage of individuals who can't handle the stresses of adult life and turn to bullying tactics to force the rest of society to pander to and appease them.
3. This will lead to the National Guard being called in and, while being highly criticized, a Kent-state type incident (or incidents) will take place which will squash this arrogant, sociopathic attitude for at least 2 generations down the road same as Kent State did.
4. The stock market will crash... that's a given at this point, IMO. Too much damage has been done, too much debt has been assumed, and too much artificial support has been utilized to keep the market from responding properly to the manipulated shutdown.
5. COVID will continue to be a thing, but it will ultimately become just another component of the season flu (which is what it is anyway.)
6. Cancel culture will ultimately face a day of reckoning, likely in the courts, as a large number of people start filing (and winning) lawsuits over that tomfoolery.
7. Trump's second term will be quieter than his first as the Left will start focusing more on 2024 and whoever they have left to run on their ticket then.
8. Epstein's woman will be found dead and either COVID or a mysterious ailment will be blamed, BUT the damage will have already been done and multiple lower level politicians, celebrities, and wealthy individuals will be sacrificed to save the majority of names involved who still hold clout.
9. Professional sports will barely survive, with some teams probably folding in the NBA, NFL, and MLB, merging their resources into other teams.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 06:17 PM
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I wrote in one of my post what we "may" see. It was non-political but seems like it all had a connection to today's events. Hopefully I can find it. It was a list of things that "will" take place. It wasn't my "street talk", but as I saw things from feeling just different notes to a song. In a way it didn't go over very well.

I mentioned many times this: convenience is what destroys an empire. We are seeing that happen world-wide these days.
Here in Japan we are in a severe "DEPRESSION". Toyota sales are off by 62%. Yep, that is just one company.
It would be nice if I took some pictures of my area. It is true, major cities look like they are blustling at the seams, but that is not really true picture.

Yes, Trump will have to call out the military in August in most major cities. People are not concerned with tomorrow.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:10 PM
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originally posted by: burdman30ott6
1. Trump gets re-elected and America has it's second Reagan/Mondale election event in which the media look like disconnected fools the day after.
2. Massive social unrest will follow, driven by the small percentage of individuals who can't handle the stresses of adult life and turn to bullying tactics to force the rest of society to pander to and appease them.
3. This will lead to the National Guard being called in and, while being highly criticized, a Kent-state type incident (or incidents) will take place which will squash this arrogant, sociopathic attitude for at least 2 generations down the road same as Kent State did.
4. The stock market will crash... that's a given at this point, IMO. Too much damage has been done, too much debt has been assumed, and too much artificial support has been utilized to keep the market from responding properly to the manipulated shutdown.
5. COVID will continue to be a thing, but it will ultimately become just another component of the season flu (which is what it is anyway.)
6. Cancel culture will ultimately face a day of reckoning, likely in the courts, as a large number of people start filing (and winning) lawsuits over that tomfoolery.
7. Trump's second term will be quieter than his first as the Left will start focusing more on 2024 and whoever they have left to run on their ticket then.
8. Epstein's woman will be found dead and either COVID or a mysterious ailment will be blamed, BUT the damage will have already been done and multiple lower level politicians, celebrities, and wealthy individuals will be sacrificed to save the majority of names involved who still hold clout.
9. Professional sports will barely survive, with some teams probably folding in the NBA, NFL, and MLB, merging their resources into other teams.


I Just don’t see a path to Trump being re-elected. I don’t want Biden to win, to be clear, but I really doubt Trump pulls it off.

I hope he does.

I also fully disagree with you on the long-term market crash. Retail investors were saying the same thing before trump got elected. Q4 2016 and 2017 were good. 2018 got popped by hedge funds. 2019 was very good.

But, remember the Obama years? How’d the market do? Real well. Capitalism is a stronger ism then you’re giving it credit for.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:11 PM
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a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I'm still not convinced that Biden will be the nominee . Trump wins and we slowly recover, the progressives are soundly defeated . We won't have to listen to Nancy and Ohmar any more . However it turns out I hope me and my family are healthy and happy . The rest of you good luck



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:34 PM
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originally posted by: xuenchen
The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!




Aren't all these things that your government are doing now? The Republican led government - under President Trump.




posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:46 PM
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originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: xuenchen
The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!




Aren't all these things that your government are doing now? The Republican led government - under President Trump.




You should show all the laws that support your thinking 😎🚬



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:51 PM
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originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: xuenchen
The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!




Aren't all these things that your government are doing now? The Republican led government - under President Trump.






All those things are happening under a trump/Republican government, and trump supporters think it's the dems that are doing it.



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:55 PM
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a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I got one to add.


If Trump wins (which he should, most people won't admit they will vote for him in a poll due to fear of nutcase progressives targeting them) then ATS will be just fine after the riots and justified arrests.

If there is a Trump loss, expect a complete lockdown of the free internet and a full doxxing (seek and destroy) mission by the Progressives to "get" all those bad people who stand against them.

I am really not joking here. I know people who are switching their Party affiliation and wiping their social media in fear of these nutcases going on a retribution spree.

If the latter comes to pass, I hope ATS is completely wiped for our best interests.
edit on 19-7-2020 by infolurker because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 07:56 PM
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originally posted by: xuenchen

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: xuenchen
The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!




Aren't all these things that your government are doing now? The Republican led government - under President Trump.




You should show all the laws that support your thinking 😎🚬


Why, would it work?



posted on Jul, 19 2020 @ 08:06 PM
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originally posted by: xuenchen
The successes created by Trump's policies were just too good for Democrats and The NWO to sustain the losses they've taken.

They have to get back all losses x10 to recover !!

Get ready for History to be made !!



Not ONE of those things are happening right now under Trump

Not ONE



posted on Jul, 20 2020 @ 11:34 AM
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Trump is gonna win in a landslide. The Commies on the left have practically assured it at this point.

If you seriously think that the hair sniffer in Chief who can barely put two sentences together has a snowballs chance in hell then I would encourage you to get out of your bubble.

As for Covid? A thousand bucks says you won’t hear anything about it the day after the election. It’s a political power grab tool and nothing more. It’s become painfully obvious at this point.

Mail in voting anyone? Cats that have been dead twelve years getting Democrat voter registration cards anyone?




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