I was looking at the Local news this morning and found this article.
Gov. Wolf Says Local Counties With Percent Positivity Above 5 Percent are 'Cause for Concern'
I'm thinking to myself 5% that doesn't sound right. So I went to the State Covid-19 Dashboard site.
The article mentions six Counties. Beaver, Allegheny, Washington, Indiana, Lawrence and Westmoreland. I started doing a little math. I took the
number of cases per county from the Dashboard and divided it by the population. The most recent population numbers that I could find are from the
State Data Center here. pasdc.hbg.psu.edu...
I looked a bit more and found that the
"Cases as of 7/17/2020" number was a cumulative number since March and that the State was estimating a 76% recovery rate. This dropped percentage
even lower. The "Active Cases 7/17/2020" was determined by subtracting the 76% cured from the "Cases as of 7/17/2020". The % After Recovery" was
determined by dividing "Active Cases 7/17/2020" by the Population.
What I found was:
County Cases as of 7/17/2020 Population Total % Active cases 7/17/2020 % After
Beaver 949 164,742 0.058% 323
Allegheny 6,125 1,218,452 0.050% 2,083
Washington 540 207,346 0.026% 184
Indiana 97 84,501 0.011% 33
Lawrence 225 86,184 0.026% 77
Westmoreland 1,135 350,611 0.032% 386
There's some real small percentages there. Nothing anywhere near 5 percent. I was figuring that I was on to something and was starting a post on ATS
until I re-read the article and found out that I had made a mistake. The percentages being referred to were not the percent of positive cases. I had
used the wrong Dashboard. The one in the article was the "Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard".
It had a different set of metrics. OK my fault for not reading closer and jumping to conclusions. This Dashboard reported on things like
"Difference in confirmed cases (most recent 7 days vs previous 7 days)", Incidence rate (most recent 7 days) per 100,000 residents", PCR percent
positivity (most recent 7 days), difference in the average daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, Difference in the average daily number of
COVID-19 patients on ventilators and Percentage of hospital emergency department visits in the most recent 7 days due to COVID-like-illness. I was
getting ready to scrap my post until I remembered something from a Statistics class I had a long time ago. The instructor was talking about polls.
He made the statement that is the title of this post. Lies, damned lies and statistics. I realized that my original numbers made a case for showing
how blown out of proportion the State's response is. They realized it too. That's why they made a new system of measurements to justify their
agenda. The first three measurements are related to testing. With the increase in testing those numbers would normally show an increase if negative
tests were not factored in. The next two are determined by medical coding, the parameters of which are determined by the State. (there's where your
regular flu cases went) and the last has it all in the title "due to COVID-like-illness
" Have you seen the list of symptoms for COVID-19? I
could break my arm and qualify in that category.
Another thing to notice is that all of these statistics are based on a period of 7 days or a daily basis. There is no way to show trends over a
period of time.
We are being scammed. Plain and simple.
edit on 18-7-2020 by JIMC5499 because: accidentally posted before I was finished.