On 106 days later, have you changed your mind?

originally posted by: SuperStudChuck
A. They keep saying hers immunity cannot happen naturally.

B. They keep saying getting the virus won’t make you immune to getting it again.

C. They keep saying the vaccine will give us herd immunity and keep us immune from getting it again.

I did the math... if a and b are true there is no need for vax.

A. There is evidence that herd immunity may not be attainable naturally. This does not exclude use of vaccinations.

B. This has not been determined.

C. This has also not been determined.

There is a difference between natural herd immunity and that which may be provided by a vaccine. Natural herd immunity requires that a large percentage of the population becomes infected. Vaccine induced herd immunity requires that natural immunity in the population be supplemented by vaccination, "artificial" immunity.

Your information and math are flawed.

originally posted by: anzha
I've been asking since March 29, 2020[1] what it would take for members of ATS to change their minds about the pandemic. Most people have, by and large, been unmoved from their original positions and opinions. As such, my last post was 7 weeks ago[2] and I decided to back off for to see if people's opinions might shift with the updated information as the pandemic has unfolded. However, in the twilight of ATS, I thought I'd try to get a snapshot or two prior to ATS closing up shop.

Let's start with an update on the pandemic!

There have been almost 138,000 deaths attributed to covid-19[3]. This is more than twice the number killed this past flu season, which on the high end was 62,000 deaths estimated[4]. This Covid-19 pandemic has proven more deadly than the 1957-1958 flu pandemic that killed 116,000 people in the US[5]. In fact, covid-19 has become single most deadly pandemic the US has had short of the 1918 flu outbreak[6].

From the first case reported in the US[7] in January to the present has been 175 days. There has been an average of 788 deaths per day. Most diseases have a 'season' where they are prevalent and then die back to reservoirs until the next favorable time of year. The flu does this. Many had predicted the hotter temperatures of summer would vastly reduce the virus here in the US were, well, wrong. In fact, they could not have been MORE wrong.

The second wave is here. When states decided to reopen, the virus spread like wildfire. California, Florida and Texas have the highest case loads from infection. Florida is the worst hit right now and regularly having over 15,000 new cases per day for the last few days and even hit over 17,000 at one point. However, per capita, Arizona - a state being scorched right now - is right behind New York and New Jersey, the two states hit hardest in the early epidemic. Those two states, NY & NJ, no longer have nearly as high of infection rates. The deaths from the second wave have started showing up, but have been less. So far. Doctors have been warning to not be complacent.

The United States has the highest infection rate[8] of the world and has failed to control the epidemic. Americans are blocked at the border with Canada[9]. American tourists[10] are not allowed to fly to Europe. They are not allowed to fly to Japan[11]. Some border crossings to Mexico have been blocked by...Mexico to try to prevent Americans from crossing[12].

Hydroxychloroquine remains controversial...just not in medical quarters. The WHO[13] and CDC[14] have discontinued their studies using the drug. Another study showed using the Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine actually caused worse outcomes than those who did not take them[15]. However, there was some hoopla about two meta studies that did not vet their sources as well as they should and had to retract their papers: this is good, folks. This is science working and the researchers admitting their paper had serious problems. if only our politicians were willing to admit when they were wrong...

Mask wearing has overtaken the immuno-suppressant hydroxychloroquine as the attention getting controversy though. One man went way over the top over it in Yuma, AZ[16]. Doctors have shown why, even with the disposable masks, it is a good idea to wear them[17].

Other controversies include the US buying the entire world stock of the single drug shown to work against covid[18] and Trump withdrawing the US from WHO[19].

So, ATS, has your opinion changed? Is it even possible to change it? Explain and defend your position in light of the current situation, please.
1. www.abovetopsecret.com...
2. www.abovetopsecret.com...
3. www.worldometers.info...
4. www.cdc.gov...
5. en.wikipedia.org...
6. Thank you, Kansas.
7. www.nejm.org...
8. www.worldometers.info...
9. www.newyorkupstate.com...
10. www.nytimes.com...
11. jp.usembassy.gov...
12. www.cnn.com...
13. www.who.int...
14. www.nih.gov...
15. www.usnews.com...
16. ktar.com...
17. www.fox10phoenix.com...
18. www.theguardian.com...
19. www.cnn.com...

Thank you so much for posting this, S&F. Your post is well written and has great sources. You obviously took a lot of time to put all this together. In answer to your question, I have not changed my mind. I had a bad feeling from the start that this was going to be a hot mess. I feel that way even stronger. It truly frightens me to see what is going on with this virus. I see most are not agreeing with your assessment. Not a surprise, just disappointing. We all need to take this seriously. It will kill and cripple many more people. It’s totally out of control in the United States. Sometimes I wish I lived in another country. But I will never leave here as long as my husband is in a nursing home. I’m scared to death he will get COVID-19. I’m scared I will get it and get sick or die.

originally posted by: Boadicea

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Boadicea

Like when people who may be infected may be in close proximity to others?

Well, definitely when people who may be infected are in close proximity to vulnerable people... those who are least able to fight the virus due to already compromised immune systems, or other chronic/acute conditions. This could be (fairly) easily accommodated as appropriate, voluntarily, with no blanket mandates for the entire population.

Businesses can do as they will. And of course, individuals are free to take what precautions they deem necessary and proper.

Generally speaking, we are better served both individually and collectively if those who are healthy and best able to fight the virus catch it and fight it the old fashioned way during optimal (summer) conditions. So we should focus on protecting the vulnerable, but let those ready, willing and able do so.

That is the most realistic outcome we can hope for. All other methods are just the government grasping for control over forces we can't negotiate with or predict in any practical sense. It really does come down to biology taking its natural course.

a reply to: TheLead

That's why I said if, also stated that the masks that would protect you the best generally don't filter exhaled air which devoids the intended purpose of protecting others.

Air is not the problem. It's the droplets which carry the virus along with them which are the problem. Masks reduce the number and velocity of droplets which are expelled.

Why do you think surgeons wear masks during surgery? I'll tell you. It's to protect their patients.

a reply to: Boadicea

Eye doctors at seeing more cases of sties on the inner eyelids than “normal” and they say that exhaling bro the mask vests to your face (especially the eyes) and your eyes can’t drain correctly. Hence more sties! (Solution: Wash your inner eyelids with baby shampoo!! Saved ya’ll 800 dollars!)

Masks have issues and you should not wear one 8 hours a day.

@anzha, not really a change: be wary, stop touching your faces, and wash your hands! It is weird not having had a cold in over six months!! Same as it ever was!!

a reply to: TEOTWAWKIAIFF

Interesting. How many doctors?
That's a subtle request for a source.

a reply to: Phage

Because they are in a sterile controlled environment that the masks are made for along with the added protection from actual drops of saliva not falling in a open wound they are hovering over.

Also I'm quite certian they don't perform surgeries while sick or on sick patients apart from emergency correct?

If non-medical grade masks are effective why the need to lie initially to save resources for healthcare workers when it was obviously pretty easy to roll out millions if not billions of non-medical masks. If they are effective then healthcare workers could just use them as well right?

People are saying masks work it's science. Any of the scientific community should have a real problem with the general term use of mask efficacy. In no way is a scientist making a general statement wholly apart from the reality of the situation, scientific. Masks working as a general statement is not even scientific theory, more less fact.

a reply to: TheLead

Because they are in a sterile controlled environment that the masks are made for along with the added protection of falling actual drops of saliva in a open wound they are hovering over.

So masks are effective in reducing expelled droplets. Or are you saying that surgeons drool a lot?

Also I'm quite certian they don't perform surgeries while sick or on sick patients apart from emergency correct?

Yes. But with COVID, you don't necessarily know you're infected.

If non-medical grade masks are effective why the need to lie initially to save resources for healthcare workers when it was obviously pretty easy to roll out millions if not billions of non-medical masks.

No one was discouraged from wearing home made masks. Early on, it was not known that asymptomatic transmission was a problem.

a reply to: Phage

Personal anecdotal story from a single source (I admit this argument of the “specific to the general”), we are not in a court of law but having a conversation about what we are seeing around the nation in a spirit of “we are all in this together”.

Lame, I know; no hard numbers but keep an eye on.



ETA: sorry for the bad pun!! I really didn’t mean it but it is kind of funny with the topic at hand!...

I have changed my mind several times. At first I was very concerned. When I started reading about it here in January, I was concerned about the fact that the media seemed to be behind in covering what was going on in China. Early February I remember discussing with my stepfather how I thought something was really wrong, but that I couldn't really figure out the whole picture. The media just started reporting more in February, and I remember thinking, why did they wait? Usually they jump on the doom bandwagon immediately.

By March, my world was turned upside down as I was in Florida for art shows, (I live in Texas) and my show was canceled, then in the following weeks, all my Texas shows were cancelled. I started to see unprecedented measures from states that I thought I would never see in my lifetime. I lost a ton of income starting in March, and my business is basically done for the year. Creation is my purpose, and with no customers to create for, I became depressed. I expected with all the doom that I would see people dropping dead in the streets. For an ebola - like illness, I would absolutely take serious precautions, but for this virus, I'm not seeing it.

Fast forward to May, and I got really sick for about a week. I needed to travel to help my Mother, and she is in her seventies, so I got tested. Turns out, I had influenza, not covid. The Doctor actually ran several different types of tests because the idiot nurse stuck that swab so hard, and so far back, she made me bleed. The tests came back "inconclusive." Interestingly enough, so did my throat swabs that she did afterwards. She then did a chest x-ray, and it looked fine. She told me I had the flu. I started wondering how many people had the flu last season, and if they were counted as such.

Moving on to today, I just found out my brother-in-law tested positive. He is absolutely asymptomatic, he had no clue. He was tested because my four year old nephew came home with a letter saying his teacher at preschool was sick with covid. My sister is pregnant and due for a C-section on July 30th. She was told on no uncertain terms that if she tested positive before the delivery they would perform the C-section, and immediately hospitalize the baby and that she would NOT be able to see her baby for at least 10 days! So she and my nephew were tested at the same time as my brother-in-law. Guess what? Neither one tested positive.

So my brother-in-law has to go stay in a hotel to avoid spreading. She has been told to stay home with my nephew under strict quarantine. She is an at-risk pregnancy due to her age, and is already exhausted. She is completely overwhelmed with all of this b.s., and feels like the hospital is basically overreaching, but feels like she has no choice. So today, I changed my mind again. Today I am really pissed off.

a reply to: Phage

I'm saying they have the potential to drool or have drops fall from their nose as any person is. A lot of context missing that you left out. You know what else does? A shield or you're sleeve which has a dense elbow and the added benefit of not having everyone touch their face or pull it down to talk. It also has the benifit of not adding more volatility in a already hostile situation in the dead of summer.

But the point is they wouldn't perform the surgery even with the mask if they know they or their patient is sick, right?

That doesnt at all answer the question asked.

a reply to: TheLead

I'm saying they have the potential to drool or have drops fall from their nose as any person is.

Nothing expelled when talking? Clearing one's throat? Really?

But the point is they wouldn't perform the surgery even with the mask if they know they or their patient is sick, right?

Right. But they wear a mask even when they know they aren't sick. To reduce chance of infection.

That doesn't at all answer the question asked.

Incorrect.

Just wear the fricken mask. It won't hurt you.

a reply to: Phage

I didnt say that they didn't just that that wasn't the only purpose as you lead on, I also touched on the very limited variable enviroment their in and its roll along with the effectiveness of the mask. A droplet or especially a drop in a open wound plays into viral load which coincides with infection, right?

But they don't when they are sick, because the mask would not protect them well enough in that enviroment, correct?

No, I think it's an abomination that the American people would bow down to a unproven precaution for the perception of safety while #ting on the rights of the handi-capped.

a reply to: TheLead

"Bow down?'

Give me a break.

a reply to: Phage

How do we know that asymptomatic carriers are a problem if they aren't being tested? Or do we have those numbers?

Fauci says vaccine may not produce herd immunity

Another source about above and contact tracing not going well

My mind still hasn't changed.

I've yet to wear a mask.

Fauci is still a crock. He doesn't even sound convincing.

It's still a cash grab by the medical industry.

Politicians and others are pocketing emergency funds.

I still don't trust any of the politicians.

a reply to: Phage

If I was the leader of a country like China with an agenda to destroy America, I would put heavy carcinogens in the masks. I’m sure they’ve got something better than asbestos by now.

originally posted by: panoz77
Nope, it's all still only about getting rid of "orange man bad" at all costs, including destroying this country.

Sad that you think this. The virus was not political and Trump had every opportunity to save his presidency had he only reacted properly. No one would have held him responsible for the economy had he reacted properly. Folks would have jumped on his bandwagon had he reacted properly. Instead he characterized the virus as a political challenge instead of the national challenge it truly is. You would have to be crazy to vote for president someone who abandoned the well being of the country to try to protect his political position.