originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: EnigmaChaser
I don't think I said that.
Pretty cocky to think we’re the peak of galactic intelligence.
Ok. I imagine that they don't last that long. I imagine that they destroy themselves with their own technology (we can) or that their planet
gets hit by a comet (that could happen) or that their star emits a flare which wipes life from their entire star system long before their civilization
lasts 50,000 years.
Now imagine our human-ish brothers live on a planet similar to earth and are 50,000 years more advanced than us
So, 500mm planets and countless billions of years of history?
Yes they could develop some mad tech, perhaps. That doesn't mean they have. You assume they have.
You hit on what I call “The Nuclear Hurdle”.
Yes. Trademarked right here.
Essentially - once you can blow yourself (and all of the other yourselves) up, it’s a game changer.
The species enters a stalemate - just like we did/have/are currently experiencing. The Cold War never ended. Never will. We decided collectively
that nukes are off limits - yet many countries proliferate then. They want them to be considered “at the table”.
Other civilizations have likely hit this point - the ability to kill allll of themselves and alllll others of their species aaaaaand their planet.
Everything. We could, theoretically, do that today.
To make it past the point of being able to blow yourselves/others/the planet up, a society has to make decisions that don’t explode all of
everything when they could. This is crucial when a civilization possesses civilization leveling tech that could easily accomplish the destruction of
most all that is known and our atmosphere.
Yet, these other societies could have reached this point and lived.
If we can’t make it through the next 100-1000 years without more nukes or more extreme devices we’re done. I say 100 to 1000 years as those of us
in our 30s now generally aren’t interested in extinguishing life on our planet. That’s your next generation of leaders. So 100 years seems
reasonable - change takes time. Long end of that is 1000 years - who the hell knows what could happen.
But if we make it to the long end of that spectrum - which I’m willing to bet other civilizations have - then I’d say we’re unlikely to be
blowing each other up. Remember, we’ve had nukes (as a species/humans) for ~80 years and all of recorded history could have happened 20,000 plus
times over in the amount of time that Humans have been around and actually identified recorded history. The amount of time we’ve had with nukes is
a really really really^100000 small amount of time in earth terms and even more minuscule in the grand scheme of galactic history.
So - no nuclear weapons used against other humans - more advanced the future is that awaits us.
And I’m willing to bet other civilizations have reached the same point - and survived.
Thus, yes, is suspect they can get here.