Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: HalWesten

Is this what we're seeing now? More contagious, less dangerous?

Where do you get "less dangerous?"

I read "does not appear to be more damaging" while I was thinking about the link I posted the other day from an Italian doctor here .

Fauci didn't say weaker, the Italian doctor did. So I guess I put the two together thinking that the new strain here might be the same as the new Italian strain which isn't showing as much of a viral load on their tests.

It was an honest mistake, I have been hoping we'll see a weakening as it mutates.

a reply to: HalWesten

Second opinions. Several.

“Viral load of swab tests will vary over the course of an infection. When compared on the same day post-infection, viral load can correlate with symptom severity. Though, viral dose might also be a function of the initial infectious dose (the number of virions that a patient got infected with). Transmission outdoors is likely to be characterised by lower infectious dose and less severe symptoms, than transmission indoors.

“There is no evidence the virus has lost ‘strength’ at this stage. We cannot rule out that some lineages will eventually evolve towards to lower symptom severity but this cannot be taken for granted.”

“Making these claims on the basis of anecdotal observations from swab tests is dangerous. Whilst weakening of the virus through mutations is theoretically possible, it is not something we should expect, and any claims of this nature would need to be verified in a more systematic way. Without significantly stronger evidence, no one should unnecessarily downplay the danger this highly virulent virus poses, and risk the ongoing society-wide response.”

www.sciencemediacentre.org...

Anecdotal or not, that's what we have to go on right now. All of the news reports are saying the high infection rates are mostly under-30 people and some of the ones I've read have said up to half of the people testing positive have no symptoms. We'll see over the next few weeks but I have hope that it's true. It doesn't mean I don't think it's a serious virus, if even half of the people that are recorded as dying from it is true that's still a lot.

a reply to: HalWesten

I think the current age demographic may have to do more with lifestyle stuff than virulence. It's summer! Let's pack into bars and drink and scam girls and stuff! Also demonstrations. Though outdoor activities don't seem to be quite the problem that indoor stuff is large groups can't be a good idea. Also complicates contact tracing.

I think that demographic may change, as those partiers (and others) transmit to their families and case numbers climb. If it has become more transmissible, all the worse. Bad enough as it was.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: HalWesten

I think the current age demographic may have to do more with lifestyle stuff than virulence. It's summer! Let's pack into bars and drink and scam girls and stuff! Also demonstrations. Though outdoor activities don't seem to be quite the problem that indoor stuff is large groups can't be a good idea.

I think that demographic may change, as those partiers (and others) transmit to their families and case numbers climb. If it has become more transmissible, all the worse. Bad enough as it was.

That makes sense, we agree on that. I'm not afraid to go anywhere and don't always wear a mask when I go to the store, but I also have trouble breathing after a while with it on. I'm not talking about five minutes, I'm talking about being in the store for a half hour and that's when I start getting tired. I've had several aneurysms repaired and a heart attack last August, so I get worn out fairly quickly and that's when I start having issues with a mask. It is what it is. I don't think we're going to get through this without large exposure to build immunities, I don't expect there to be a vaccine for years if ever.

a reply to: HalWesten

I'm not afraid to go anywhere but I do avoid anything that resembles a crowd. I always wear a mask in stores, with no ill effects whatsoever. Perhaps you are experiencing psychosomatic effects. This does not mean that what you are experiencing is not real but that, perhaps, the cause is not actually the mask.

The HIV epidemic changed a lot of people's habits. So too will this one, probably. Maybe some not for the worse.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: HalWesten

I'm not afraid to go anywhere but I do avoid anything that resembles a crowd. I always wear a mask in stores, with no ill effects. Perhaps you are experiencing psychosomatic effects. This does not mean that what you are experiencing is not real but that, perhaps, the cause is not actually the mask.

The HIV epidemic changed a lot of people's habits. So too will this one, probably. Maybe some not for the worse.

No, I just get tired after walking a while which makes it harder to breathe with a mask on. It isn't as bad with a paper mask but the cloth mask I have is heavier. Like I said, it is what it is. I'm just tired of everything being shut down for so long and watching people having to close their businesses for good while the big box stores just keep going.

a reply to: HalWesten

I misunderstood, I had the breathing issues being the cause of the tiredness. Heavy breathing can be restricted a bit while wearing a mask. I have had an inkling of that when climbing multiple flights of stairs. It takes a bit of exercise to get me to that state though.

Big box stores have been causing problems for small business for a while. Since before COVID. Some adapted, some didn't. In any case, as the topic says, things are not going to "go back to normal" any time soon.

a reply to: Phage

OK phrase is not Viral Load it's infectious dose - "A high infectious dose may lead to a higher viral load, which can impact the severity of Covid-19 symptoms."

"If exposure to higher doses, or even frequent low doses, of SARS-CoV-2 does lead to worse health outcomes, there are significant implications for health care workers who are routinely exposed to Covid-19 patients."

So from "exposure to higher doses, or even frequent low doses" I assume you getting extra from your mask it will increase your infectious dose and therefore lead to a higher viral load --

“The more viral particles that get into the lungs, the more damage to the lungs that is probably happening,” by W. David Hardy, a professor of infectious disease at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

"People with higher viral loads may also shed more whole viruses, which makes them more contagious, compounding the danger of spreading disease more widely."

source


So logically you would have a more "vir•u•lent vîr′yə-lənt, vîr′ə-► causing, or promoting the rapid onset of severe illness. "
version.

Nice dodge on answering about you being responsible for the spreading other viruses by not wearing a mask before now.

in Hawaii during 2017 637 people died of the flu, you didn't wear a mask then but now for 946 COVID-19 Cases and 18 Deaths you do.
Why
Social pressure, political pressure or support of political dogma, science or are you trying to shame sick people into wearing masks?

If you assume you have it and need a mask to protect others -- why are you going out at all? not logical.

So here's hoping like many people have supplied links for already in this thread you have a natural immunity or a healthy immune system able to keep you safe have a great day.

a reply to: puzzled2

OK phrase is not Viral Load it's infectious dose -

If you're infected, you're infected. There are far more viral particles being produced within your body than you will ever inhale or exhale.

"People with higher viral loads may also shed more whole viruses, which makes them more contagious, compounding the danger of spreading disease more widely."

Yes. Which is the main reason for wearing a mask. To reduce the possibility of an infectious dose being transmitted to others.

So logically you would have a more "vir•u•lent vîr′yə-lənt, vîr′ə-► causing, or promoting the rapid onset of severe illness. "
version.

Why would wearing a mask increase virulence?

in Hawaii during 2017 637 people died of the flu, you didn't wear a mask then but now for 946 COVID-19 Cases and 18 Deaths you do.
Why

Perhaps we should have done so then, the mitigation measures for COVID seem to have been quite effective, as you point out. But, as I said, there is a level of natural immunity to influenza and a vaccine was available, there is none of either for COVID.

But your numbers seem off. According to the Hawaii Department of Health there were 589 deaths related to pneumonia or influenza for the period October 2, 2016 to September 30, 2017. There was no danger of flooding our limited hospital resources. It was a typical season.



health.hawaii.gov...

a reply to: Phage

you have to ask

Why would wearing a mask increase virulence?

are you really too dense to grasp what W. David Hardy, a professor of infectious disease at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine said in the sourced article.

Perhaps you should email him.

a reply to: puzzled2

I don't see where he says anything resembling that.

Perhaps you should email him. Ask him if wearing a mask makes COVID more virulent. Ask him if it increase the viral load of an infected person. Go ahead, I dare you. It is your claim, after all.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: puzzled2

I don't see where he says anything resembling that.

Perhaps you should email him. Ask him if wearing a mask makes COVID more virulent. Ask him if it increase the viral load of an infected person. Go ahead, I dare you. It is your claim, after all.

So your saying

People with higher viral loads may also shed more whole viruses, which makes them more contagious, compounding the danger of spreading disease more widely.

“The more viral particles that get into the lungs, the more damage to the lungs that is probably happening,”

a mask catches the virus and breathing back in those shed virus particles deep into your lungs is not more virulent? i.e. "able to overcome bodily defensive mechanisms".

Please explain why you think that.


Fyi - September is not the last month in a year you need to get all the months of a year to get a total for a year.

a reply to: puzzled2

Viral load is a measure of virus particles. It is the amount of virus present once a person has been infected and the virus has had time to replicate in their cells. With most viruses, higher viral loads are associated with worse outcomes.


“The more viral particles that get into the lungs, the more damage to the lungs that is probably happening,” said Hardy.

Viral particles replicate throughout the body of an infected person. Millions upon millions upon millions of them. The more of them in the lungs, the higher the probability that there will be lung damage. The greater the original infectious dose, the more replication will occur within the lungs.

When an infected person coughs it does not reduce their viral load because what they expel is insignificant in comparison their viral load. If they happen to inhale more viral particles the number of particles they inhale is completely insignificant in comparison to their viral load, the amount of virus being produced within their body.

Fyi - September is not the last month in a year you need to get all the months of a year to get a total for a year.

October through September is 12 months.

2016–2017 INFLUENZA SEASON SUMMARY
October 2, 2016–September 30, 2017

health.hawaii.gov...

originally posted by: Phage

Those are for confirmed cases, not deaths. The CDC themselves have reported the data that shows that Covid is not killing many people anymore, and we're past the bell curve:

In the week of June 27th, there was only 313 deaths.

The reason for the increased number of 'confirmed cases' is because they are testing for antibodies... which means anyone who has ever come in contact to the virus, whether or not they received symptoms, will be shown as a positive.

The bell curve for deaths from covid is over:

Covid death rates

a reply to: cooperton

Those are for confirmed cases, not deaths.

The chart does not show "confirmed cases."
It shows "Daily New COVID-19 Hospitalizations."

The bell curve for deaths from covid is over:

The CDC data is not current and people do not die as soon as they become sick. It's a little early to be declaring victory while cases (and hospitalizations) are again on the rise. Steeply.

Your source:

Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

a reply to: Phage

Regardless, we are well beyond the peak for Covid deaths.



lingering addendums that may add to the number will not be large enough to change the data to such a high degree that it changes that fact. Keep in mind those numbers include the protests and it is still going down

a reply to: cooperton

It's a little early to be declaring victory while cases (and hospitalizations) are again on the rise. Steeply. Those curves dropped off for a while too. Didn't they? People do not die as soon as they get sick. People do not die as soon as they enter the hospital.

Perhaps you're right though. That would be good.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: cooperton

It's a little early to be declaring victory while cases (and hospitalizations) are again on the rise. Steeply. ...

in some locations

a reply to: Halfswede

Cases are increasing in most states. I guess you can call "most", "some." If you like. But it might be more accurate to say that in some places they aren't. That's why the numbers for the country on the whole are on the rise.

But yes, some places are worse off than others. That's sort of the way it works.

In this visualization, states that appear in shades of orange have experienced a growth in new cases over the past two weeks. States that appear in shades of green have seen declines in cases over the same period of time.

coronavirus.jhu.edu...