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"An open letter signed by 14 scientists with expertise in landslides, tsunamis and climate change warns of an unstable mountain slope above the leading edge of the retreating Barry Glacier in Alaska.
This pending landslide could spawn an enormous tsunami in Harriman Fjord, which is located some 60 miles from Anchorage, which is home to an estimated 291,000 residents."
"A complete failure could be destructive throughout Barry Arm, Harriman Fjord, and parts of Port Wells. Our initial results show complex impacts further from the landslide than Barry Arm, with over 30-foot waves in some distant bays, including Whittier," the experts write."
"Warming temperatures have caused the retreat of a glacier that helps support a steep, mile-long slope along one flank of a fjord in Prince William Sound, about 60 miles east of Anchorage. With only a third of the slope now supported by ice, the scientists said, a landslide could be triggered by an earthquake, prolonged heavy rain or even a heat wave that could cause extensive melting of surface snow."
Just wanted to see you other fellow ATSers know about these things and if anyone has any information to add.
originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Phage
Darn Vikings, always threatening us with the sea!
Certainly not unprecedented either.
It's climate change, water/ice is heavy and rock typically doesn't bend well. Now since I've said a dirty word I might as well state that it doesn't really matter if it's manmade or not. The cause and effects are real.
What you would experience in the Harriman Fford would be a mere ripple (sorry for being trite) compared to the Mega-tsunami that would result from Las Palmas when that goes.
Proper modeling of dispersive effects (Mader 2001) - provides much more realistic far-field wave estimates, in the unlikely event of a large-scale, La Palma slope failure. Mader's model of a La Palma slide estimates that the east coast of the U.S. and the Caribbean would receive tsunami waves of less than 3 meters and the European and African coasts would receive waves less than 10 meters high. However, this represents the upper limit. Full Navier-Stokes modeling brings the maximum expected tsunami wave amplitude off the U.S. east coast to about one meter.
Sudden, catastrophic, flank collapses of island stratovolcanoes are extremely rare phenomena and none have occurred within recorded history. Numerical modeling of mega tsunami generation (Ward &. Day, 2001, Ward 2001) has been based on unrealistic scenarios of massive flank collapses of volcanoes in La Palma, Canary islands, and the island of Hawaii.
Such an eruption is 'imminent'....but geologically speaking 'imminent' could mean in the next thousand years or so.
The researchers calculate that the surest way to cause a landslide is to wait for at least another 10,000 years. The Cumbre Vieja volcano steadily grows and this causes the flanks of the volcano to become steeper and less stable. ‘A combination of substantial vertical growth and eruption forces will most probably act to trigger failure. To reach substantial growth, a time span in the order of 10,000 years will be required’, Van Berlo states.
Even if the volcanic flank did become critically unstable, it isn’t likely it will go with a splash. ‘Of course the flank won’t go in one piece, but break up first’, Nieuwenhuis said. ‘And it could very well slide down a little and then settle in a more stable configuration, just like our dykes in Holland often do when they go unstable.’ The plunge won’t be a fast and sudden event, Nieuwenhuis stresses. ‘It will more be like a steam locomotive powering up. The first meter of movement should take several days.’