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Novel coronavirus is a very dangerous disease

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posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:25 PM
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First off here's an instant block . This is NOT fearmongering or handwringing or pearl clutching .

But it's about the truth , plain and simple .

One of the best measures of the capacities and potential of a disease ( or how seriously to take it ) is the death rate , aka case fatality rate .

The other most important of measuring scales is the r number , aka reproduction rate .

This op will demonstrate proof of the title , that novel coronavirus is a very dangerous disease .

First off , the r number is high , at a factor of three. One case infects three others , on average , without mitigation measures like social distancing .
An r number that high makes it dangerous ... But how dangerous depends on the case fatality rate.

The media , are ignoring the case fatality rate . You all are actually .
Why ? Because it's a searingly high rate. They don't want this particular information to be well known. It's enough to frighten most people , and make them shy of contracting the virus .

mortality analyses John Hopkins uni

When you examine the contents of this link , you will find a chart which shows country by country , what the case fatality rate (CFR) is .
Now, the CFR is properly measured by the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases , to give a percentage.

In Britain the CFR is 14.1 % . That means out of every 100 cases , 14 people die . There are c. 297 000 cases , and 41 000 deaths , so 14 % percent of cases die .

How is such a figure arrived at ? By testing the population. When the media talk of testing , they won't want to tell you how many tests have been carried out in total. Why not ? Because , with so many tests and so few confirmed cases , it becomes easy to see both how accurate and how dangerously high the case fatality rate is .


44 minutes ago · Coronavirus in numbers: UK death toll hits 41,698 ... Overall, a total of 6,772,602 tests have been carried out and 295,889 cases have ...


Google result

The page has a news article touting this info , which does not include this info in the actual article. But it is correct as of today.

What that information translates to , what it means in basic analysisis is that the coronavirus is a very dangerous disease. Here's how...

295 000 cases means that less than 1 % of the UK population has or has had coronavirus .

A test total of 6 700 000 tests means that somewhere near 10 % of the population has been tested . Some people may have been tested twice or more , perhaps because they work in dangerous jobs. Most will have been tested because they felt ill.

So , one important thing becomes clear in the comparison , that we re not missing many cases , but we are identifying most if not all of them . Even asymptomatic cases must mainly be identified too , when near 10 % of the population has had a test , but less than 1% of population ( more like 0.5 %) actually shows up positive for the disease .

And that means ... The CFR for Britain is also reasonably accurate. 14 %

In France it's 15 % in Belgium it's 16 % in Spain it's 11 % in Holland it's 12 %. See the link , they're official figures .

All these countries have been carrying out high numbers of tests , and most likely reporting figures accurately , even if not widely publicising what they add up to in death rate analysis and therefore mean overall , which is , that novel coronavirus is a very dangerous disease. High death rate , high reproduction rate , highly dangerous.

In contrast however , some countries figures do add up to a lower CFR , so far. Eg ( 5.5% in the US ) Why might this be ?
It's suggested , see the paragraph above and the title of the thread . How would they achieve a lower CFR ?
Either by lowering the number of deaths from corona , or , artificially inflating the number of confirmed cases . It's suggested the latter would be the obvious choice , and we keep hearing ( only from speculative sources) how there are many asymptomatic cases going under the radar . Well UK figures ( a huge number of tests and a low number of cases ) here presented show that really isn't the case . There are very few asymptomatic cases . But it's a very dangerous disease .

And don't forget ( before the shills and the proven wrong pile in ) the number of tests wasn't ramped up until we were all well into the initial spike in infections .

And furthermore , the testing figures are able to prove that the number of cases per day is decreasing.
Therefore they're ALSO able to prove that the novel coronavirus CFR is stingingly high.
And therefore that as is stated here , this pandemic coronavirus is a very dangerous disease indeed .








edit on 15-6-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)

edit on 15-6-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)



+21 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:30 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

You should probably stay home so you won't have to worry about it. As for me, I got # to do and don't feel like wasting my life locked in the house for a few years.


+17 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:33 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

How much they paying you, pharmacy boy?


+10 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:37 PM
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This is fear mongering at it's worse.
I don't even want to explain why because there must be hundreds of posts on ATS explaining why.
Do you read scientific papers?
Especially those that are NOT printed by the MSN?

Stop it already. It's over, just like every frigging flu before.
Waiting for the pubs to open, this crap can't go on any longer because some people poop their trousers a lot.
Please stay indoors if you are scared.


+4 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:37 PM
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a reply to: MRinder

exactly.

if you are scared, stay home. its simple.

do not tell men though, that men cannot make their own decisions.


+8 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:39 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Why does the common annual flu include estimates and covid doesn't?

Why are people being classified as a covid death when covid wasn't the cause?




First off here's an instant block . This is NOT fearmongering or handwringing or pearl clutching .

Yes, it is. Very telling when you have to start your OP with that disclaimer.


+9 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:43 PM
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Hey maybe I am totally confused but




The media , are ignoring the case fatality rate .

No they push it even though it is lower than others that are not as hyped as Corona.




In France it's 15 % in Belgium it's 16 % in Spain it's 11 % in Holland it's 12 %

Let me introduce IFR to you. Infection mortality rate. I explain it to you like I would to a child:
The mortality rate in Germany is 0.4%.
France 0.5%
So for every two hundred (200) people that are infected, one of them dies.

That is sad on it's own but NOT 15%, it is 30 times lower than your number.



This is NOT fearmongering or handwringing or pearl clutching .

OH it absolutely is! This is you doing your thing here, as you do since the beginning of this.




But it's about the truth , plain and simple .

No, I showed why it is not.

edit on 15-6-2020 by ThatDamnDuckAgain because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:57 PM
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How many times ?
Attack the post , not the poster . Any number of as hominems are useless here , it's basic ignorance to use them .

Why ISNT the CFR 14 % , after this report ?

Because it IS 14% as the op stands .

If anyone can address that , that'd be far more constructive , less boringly predictable too



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 01:58 PM
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Your RO numbers are incorrect here’s the numbers for Ohio and they are isolated to one state .


Northwest Ohio (Region 1) - 1 : 0.93
Northeast Ohio (Region 2) - 1 : 0.88
Miami Valley/Dayton (Region 3) 1 : 1.07
Central Ohio (Region 4) - 1 : 0.91
Youngstown/Mahoning Valley Area (Region 5) - 1 : 0.72
Southwest Ohio (Region 6) - 1 : 0.8
Eastern/Southeast Ohio (Regions 7 & 8) - 1 : 0.62


RO

You’re a CFR is wrong too but I’ll wait till I can find a link .
edit on 15-6-2020 by Fallingdown because: (no reason given)

edit on 15-6-2020 by Fallingdown because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:01 PM
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originally posted by: ThatDamnDuckAgain
Hey maybe I am totally confused but




The media , are ignoring the case fatality rate .

No they push it even though it is lower than others that are not as hyped as Corona.




In France it's 15 % in Belgium it's 16 % in Spain it's 11 % in Holland it's 12 %

Let me introduce IFR to you. Infection mortality rate. I explain it to you like I would to a child:
The mortality rate in Germany is 0.4%.
France 0.5%
So for every two hundred (200) people that are infected, one of them dies.

That is sad on it's own but NOT 15%, it is 30 times lower than your number.



This is NOT fearmongering or handwringing or pearl clutching .

OH it absolutely is! This is you doing your thing here, as you do since the beginning of this.




But it's about the truth , plain and simple .

No, I showed why it is not.


You've been given links and clear facts . Where's your links ?
If this supposed IFR is suddenly more important mportant than CFR in mortality analyses , why doesn't John Hopkins university use it ?
You've gone for direct contradiction but without any backup whatsoever . It doesn't wash



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:02 PM
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+3 more 
posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:04 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip


Attack the post , not the poster


They are attacking you because you post daily about this rubbish.

Stay home in mom’s basement. We don’t care if you leave it or not.



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:06 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

I cant fathom why anyone would trust Johns Hopkins.. Anyone involved with Event 201 should have red flags popping up for everyone.

So, lets just take the numbers as they are. If examined in total isolation, solely under the premise of "its all The Virus!" We run into some serious issues actually parsing.. anything important.

If we look a nursing home deaths alone, there are so many questions that need answered worldwide.

Treatment approaches seem to have caused a substantial amount of death on their own, particularly intubation. Yet, these practices are still continued.

What are the actual factors that come into play in areas of high infection? Simple population density only seems to be one.

Why arent all these "health" professionals and "experts" actually trying to improve public health in general? Itd be a perfect time..

See, because if we remove nursing home deaths from being relevant to the general population, address deaths that might have been otherwise preventable through proper treatment, and look into the issues that have created immune system and general health problems for years.. We are looking at a completely different situation.

Thats not even bringing in CFR vs IFR, suspicious reporting, financial incentives, conflicts of interest re: vaccines, how antibodies are not the only things that confer "immunity," how flu vaccines might have made coronavirus worse, inappropriate use of PCR tests, abuse of statistics to stoke fear (openly admitted..), etc.
edit on 15-6-2020 by Serdgiam because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:08 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip
It is the sneaky way, not your person. There was zero insult, but a truthful observation.

You made the post and I addressed it, isn't it more like you feel attacked because I took your disinformation and fearmonger apart mid-air?

Why should I or anyone else address this, if you have been showed to follow strange logic time and time again.



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:12 PM
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Here’s another study from Sanford on the CFR . It separates deaths caused by COVID-19 from deaths listed as COVID-19 that didn’t cause the death . It’s also takes into account the 50 to 88% of people that have had COVID-19 but haven’t been tested .


The Stanford study, led by Assistant Professor Eran Bendavid, concluded that the mortality rate in Santa Clara County is between 0.12% and 0.2%. (In contrast, the county's mortality rate based solely on official cases and deaths as of last Friday, April 17, was 3.9%.)


No just no
edit on 15-6-2020 by Fallingdown because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:13 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Lions ... and tigers ... and bears

Stay home. It's the only place you're safe now. Have you got a whole horde of TP?



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:13 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip




You've been given links and clear facts . Where's your links ?

I agree about the first.

You want a link backing up what I wrote? And then? Will you even read or try understand them?

But okay, here you go, since they are still open in my browser
IFR
www.mdpi.com...

Steady declining curves, I watch this statistic everyday and it has been on a decline each day. Scroll down until you see the infographic. Numbers are universal, so you should not be bothered by the strange language (hint it is not english)
www.zeit.de...

Here is a CNN one, just for you
edition.cnn.com...
Note the date.

And now?
edit on 15-6-2020 by ThatDamnDuckAgain because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:34 PM
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a reply to: ThatDamnDuckAgain

Mdpi link , 9 th April makes it well out of date.

Mdpi and a creative commons license make it no more reliable than this site . No authors are accredited .

Don't believe all that then , any of its contents .looking at the other links

Agree to web tracking in Herman s German ?
No f thanks Zeit




edit on 15-6-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)


And CNN ?
Sure ...... Like they're Sooooo reliable , and the articles about Germany s management ,.

This thread is about CFR in the UK and globally , as a according to John Hopkins university daily updated measurement s using officially released figures .

Stay on topic
edit on 15-6-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)

edit on 15-6-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 02:51 PM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip
Learn how % works then, duh. The death rate is stable at 0.4% in Germany.

Great, ignore my links, why did I knew it was a waste of time? I put CNN in there for you because I thought you might like them. You know...

You stay on topic please. I still wait for a somewhat strong argument from you. Anything that you have to offer to disproof what I wrote or will it be just another single sentence followed by a couple of paragraphs and then one line, a couple of paragraphs..

This is not pleasant to read but a sign you are up in your eyeballs in defense over the fearmongering you do.

Making room for others now,
toodeloo!
edit on 15-6-2020 by ThatDamnDuckAgain because: (no reason given)

edit on 15-6-2020 by ThatDamnDuckAgain because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2020 @ 03:12 PM
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a reply to: ThatDamnDuckAgain


The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections.[7] The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group).[8] (Individuals who are infected, but always remain asymptomatic, are said to have "inapparent" — or silent, or subclinical — infections.)


IFR uses assumed figures to produce an estimated rate. It's a guess , only .


Officially Published Test Results are used both to calculate the r number , and they give ' the governments' reasons to release lockdowns when a daily decrease in infection numbers is deemed to have become acceptably low enough to do so.

Germany's officially Published stats give a CFR ( an accurate measure without guestimations ) of 4.7 % .

Even at that rate it's a chuffing dangerous disease.
And it's suggested you know it's true.

My guess is this the CFR is the hottest topic in the world right now , too hot to handle and that's why you're out of here , and that herd of bulls just came through to stampede it out of it existence asap .



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