Don't let the absence of a question mark in the opening title fool you: this is meant as a question to the forum.
- I'm assuming that the candidates for the election with be President Trump and Senator Biden
- PLEASE REFRAIN FROM NON-FACTUAL INSULTS/TAKEDOWNS, IRRELEVANCT SLANDERS OF EITHER CANDIDATE (this isn't the mudpit)
Please describe how the events of the past few days either will help, hinder or have little impact in the political fortunes of both Trump and
My gut feeling at this moment is that the protests and riots will help BOTH
candidates; here's why.
President Trump's political base is drawn (shocker!!) from many Red States, as this
shows. Note that for the most part, the largest pockets of civil unrest, occurred in Blue States, where the major urban areas of our
country are located, NY, LA, Chicago, etc. Again, not a particularly insightful thought. When Trump was campaigning in '16, one of the central themes
he ran on was "Law and Order". I heard him call himself the candidate of "Law and Order" many times during debates. This message resonated to some
in '16, and I feel Trump is going to go back to the well and hammer away at that theme x10 in the upcoming elections. From a strategic standpoint,
really Trump doesn't need to alter his campaign messaging in the wake of the unrest to a large degree, because his path to re-election runs through
the same electoral map from above, many Red States without concentrations of urban population centers. Looking at the electoral map, I don't see
opportunities for Biden to flip Trump states based on what we've seen; consider that Minnesota, epicenter of the unrest, was already Blue.
For Senator Biden, we can guess his strategy is going to target his message and mold his campaign to speak to those in the areas most impacted by the
unrest, i.e. urban areas with diverse population demographic. If he crafts his messaging appropriately, this is his chance to win over minority voters
that he may have alienated with his remarks questioning the "blackness" of those voting for Trump. Biden can use the unrest as a cudgel to bash
Trump, not only policies under Trump's tenure but how his reactions to the unrest were perceived. So if Biden doesn't screw it up, this is his
'olive branch' to the black community, a chance to reconcile for his previous statements that were not received well.
In the end, my take is, the support and criticism of the unrest is pretty much broken along pre-existing party fault lines, so all it'll do is
amplify existing voting patterns.
I think had the protests remained non-violent, it'd been a golden opportunity for the Democrats to make inroads in some undecided/independent voters
in Trumps base, e.g. white rural areas. I think the length and severity of the riots drowned out the voices of the legitimate protests.
Trump also might've had an opportunity to capitalize had he maybe tried a more conciliatory/empathetic tact in the events, but his main messaging and
statements occurred well after the original incident, and seemed to ramp up when the rioting started.
My opinion is that the only outcome of all this will be to reinforce existing opinions and voting patterns. If anything voting participation may be
higher, but due to polarization, I don't see these events having any significant role in flipping the electoral state map linked above.