New CDC report shows much lower death rate than we are led to believe.

a reply to: Gryphon66
With the latest numbers it 5.837 %

I see that people can argue about absolutely anything nowadays which is sad. I saw an article that made sense to me and seemed to confirm what a lot of people have been saying and thinking for a while. It's either accurate or not.

However, why people are saying this isn't a death rate when the box next to the stats says "symptomatic case fatality ratio" is beyond me. It looks like these aren't hard numbers but projected numbers based on the hard numbers they have through April 29th as well as what they believe to be undocumented cases. Obviously those numbers change in a daily basis and it's been almost a month since then.

However, The point is still the same. Based on their numbers, that is what they expect which is why they refer to it as "current best estimate" either way, it's much lower than what they have been telling us their estimate was for the last 3 months. Which in the end, proves the premise of the article I would think?

Good to see, I already wrote this off as a realistic threat. Got a thousand other things to worry about before this

a reply to: awhispersecho

Great post. It's just leftist hijinks and dirty tricks

Just do me a favor and vote vote vote, that's how we can punch back in a highly meaningful way

a reply to: awhispersecho

Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio has a very specific meaning in this paper.

It's not "death rate."

I linked those for you from the CDC paper itself.

These are factors to be used in mathematical modelling.

AS THE REPORT STATES.

The fact that you understand this as you do, and that it seems to be "confirming what a lot of people are saying" is a case of CONFIRMATION BIAS.

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: awhispersecho

Great post. It's just leftist hijinks and dirty tricks

Just do me a favor and vote vote vote, that's how we can punch back in a highly meaningful way

Leftist hijinks?

Did you bother to read the actual paper? It's only a few pages.

Did you bother to link the description in the paper of the number you think confirms everything you already believe?

It's not what you think.

Numbers and math are not leftist.

a reply to: Gryphon66

No, because even if the death till was 10000x higher I wouldn't be shaken up.

No amount of safety is ever worth giving up one single inch of liberty. Take your own precautions or don't, up to you entirely

And yes the arguing about anything and everything is a left-wing hijink

originally posted by: hutch622
a reply to: Gryphon66
With the latest numbers it 5.837 %

You mean the "death rate"?

Yeah, it's a rough number; it fluctuates daily based on reporting.

The CDC data is also up to two weeks old.

Those are just facts though aka "leftist hijinks."

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Gryphon66

No, because even if the death till was 10000x higher I wouldn't be shaken up.

No amount of safety is ever worth giving up one single inch of liberty. Take your own precautions or don't, up to you entirely

And yes the arguing about anything and everything is a left-wing hijink

I can't say I'm glad you're unmoved by death but I'm not surprised.

No one is giving up every inch of liberty.

You're spouting pure politics in a fact-based forum and thread.

a reply to: Gryphon66

It's not politics, and I didn't say every inch of liberty I said even an inch.

Life has risks. My emotional feelings toward death is irrelevant, nothing supersedes individual liberty.

Viruses are a force of nature. It isn't going anywhere soon. Was proud to see so many Americans ingoring the flapping heads "two weeks away!!! Ahhh, two weeks away now"

Severely overblown.

Do people whine and moan about the flu? Cancer? Heart attack? Car accidents? Way more people die from those things and you barely hear a peep. Sure, they suck no doubt about it. But this scamdemic is overblown and manipulated for political ends.

a reply to: JBurns

Sorry I misread; I agree that we cannot trade freedom for security - like all things it's a balance. All risks are not equal. Viruses are short strands of DNA/RNA that in some ways act like parasites. The rest is false equivalence.

Best.

To quote my favorite psycho, "at this point, what difference does it make?"

We already know, that they have listed covid on causes of death, that weren't really covid caused deaths. We know states have padded their numbers, because, "we are sure we missed some" even though they weren't tested.

We will never have the true numbers. I would guess they are much lower than what they are claiming now. But, that doesn't fit the narrative, so....

a reply to: JBurns

No, because even if the death till was 10000x higher I wouldn't be shaken up.

You know that's a billion dead in the US right . Makes you kind of dead too .

a reply to: chiefsmom

We already know, that they have listed covid on causes of death, that weren't really covid caused deaths. We know states have padded there numbers, because, "we are sure we missed some" even though they weren't tested.

Got a link , twitter and such dont count .

a reply to: chiefsmom

Well, it seems you are supporting a converse narrative with no evidence.

If you believe all that ... what's your basis? Where is the evidence you are basing your belief on?

Because you've made a string of assumptions that are certainly NOT factual but are indeed part of a political narrative.

It seems more accurate to say that you've chosen a narrative, and you don't like the other one, right?

a reply to: Gryphon66

Agreed no problem Gryf I type like crap on my mobile half the time have trouble reading it myself LOL

Agree on that, I just disagree with the idea that this is the threat we give up our liberties over

originally posted by: awhispersecho
So as the title states, the CDC released a report based on statistics through 04/29 showing a much lower death rate. Overall . 4%, .26% including asymptomatic cases, 1 in 6725 confirmed cases including asymptomatic cases, 6 in 1 million of those under the age of 65.

Of course more testing has to be conducted nation wide before such numbers can be calculated correctly. These factors are baseline input variables and do not account for many other inputs to the situation.

However that said it is a good thing these numbers are much lower than previously thought. It's just another nail in the coffin for all the doom porn floating around.


On a smaller scale New York has been studying to find the true number of infections in our population.

One in every five New York City residents has been infected with the coronavirus, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday, announcing additional preliminary results from a statewide antibody survey. According to the survey of about 150,000 tests, 12.3 percent of New York state residents have been infected with COVID-19 and tested positive for virus antibodies. In New York City, 19.9 percent tested positive

link

12.3% of New York population is around 2.4 million people infected as of the beginning of May

Deaths in New York is at 23.3K as of today.

Making the infections to deaths around 1%

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Gryphon66

Agreed

no problem Gryf I type like crap on my mobile half the time have trouble reading it myself LOL

Agree on that, I just disagree with the idea that this is the threat we give up our liberties over

I agree that the wanton use of the "police power' nationwide will have given them a taste for it.

That's what bothers me.

a reply to: DanDanDat

This is the whole point right? The numbers are way less than they said they would be in the beginning and way less than they are still trying to make us all believe. Which is GOOD news to those out there who seem to be confused. At least it should be. But for some reason it seems almost everyone is against anything but the worst case scenario with this thing. It really baffles me.

Good for New York too. I have been watching the numbers and antibody test numbers for NY for a couple weeks now and even though some things there were handled badly, it's good that so many more have probably been infected and are doing ok. The nursing home situation in NY and even the less hard hit places is terrible. Hard to believe we couldn't have done things better but also probably confirms this thing has been around since the start of flu season.

Okay, general question ... what number are you using for "the total number they told us to expect" ?

You're comparing everything to this number, that no one has bothered to note.

What is it? Who made the projection? When was it made?

Surely you have something in mind when you say this stuff ... right?

Here's the projection from IHME from March 2020

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths.

So this is one of the main "forecasting groups" and their estimate on March 26, 2020 was 81,000 by July 2020 assuming social distancing was followed.

We're somewhere around 100K as of the end of May.

Their estimates were LOW compared with reality.

So please, explain to me what you guys mean when you talk about how wildly wrong the initial estimates were.